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  • Mitch Haniger an Ideal Big Bat for Twins With Money to Burn


    Jamie Cameron

    Mitch Haniger is an ideal candidate to add some right-handed thump to a lineup that lost its best right-handed hitter this offseason. 

    Image courtesy of Steven Bisig - USA Today Sports

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    The slow erosion that was the 2022 season has given way to guarded excitement as we enter free agency. The Twins have a true tabula rasa, with around $60 million to spend to get in the ballpark of last year’s payroll total. Much of the focus has centered on shortstop, catcher, and high upside starting pitching, understandably so. I’d argue a right-handed, outfield power-bat should be on the shopping list, too. Enter Mitch Haniger.

    Twins Need a Viable, Right Handed, Big Bat
    Haniger would serve several purposes in the Twins lineup; let's address a few. He’d replace the thump that somewhat absorbs losing Carlos Correa. While there are rumblings that the Twins are preparing to offer Correa the largest contract in franchise history, it remains unlikely the Twins will add one of the uber-shortstops this winter, in which case, they need a right-handed power bat. Additionally, the Twins need to bring balance to their outfield. Byron Buxton and Kyle Garlick combined to play 158 games for the Twins in 2022 (many at DH). Beyond these two players, the Twins outfield options (Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner) are left-handed. 

     

     

    Haniger Doesn’t Break the Bank
    Let’s deal with some elephants in some rooms. First, Haniger does not have a good health track record. Since 2018, he’s alternated playing close to 160 games, or 60 games in a season. While you may have already stopped reading given the Twins recent track record with injuries, they hired a new athletic trainer and it’s a new season. In 2022, Haniger’s missed time was largely due to a high ankle sprain. Haniger’s injury history also means a more reasonable price point. MLB Trade Rumors projected his contract to be 3 years, $39 million. In the last two seasons in which Haniger has remained healthy, he’s put up 7.3 fWAR. That’s plenty good value. It’s unlikely, but if Haniger didn’t like the offers he received early in the offseason, perhaps he’d take a two-year deal at a higher AAV (2 years, $32 million). At just 31, that seems feasible.

    Massive Upside
    Lastly, let’s talk upside. Haniger is a monster when healthy. He’s also a pull side right-handed hitter, which would play well at Target Field. In his major league career, Haniger has shown significant consistency, putting up a career .476 SLG, 122 wRC+, and .811 OPS. If he’s on the field, you know what you’re going to get. In Haniger’s last two full seasons, he’s combined for 60 home runs, so an expectation of 30 in 150 games seems reasonable. Lastly, Haniger adds some experience to an extremely young core. There’s a lot to like.

     

    Clearly, much of what the Twins accomplish this offseason will depend on their solution at shortstop. If they fail to land one of the premier options, a pivot to Haniger as a high impact bat, and an elite front of the rotation starter would soften the blow for me. What do you think of Mitch Haniger as a fit for the Twins? Who are other options you’d consider as big bats beyond the elite start shortstops this offseason?

     

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    It would be nice to find some permanent leftfielder to fill the position  ...

    Haniger has been  a solid player and would contribute to the lineup if he could remain healthy  ...

    It's another discussion of leftfielders , a couple of days ago we were talking about renfoe  ... 

    I sure wish our new trainer can keep the players healthy and playing  ...

    The roster is full at the moment  and more players are likely to be non tendered  , pagan does not deserve a roster spot , Megill has talent but not consistent  , garlick was signed but should be taken off the roster , Contreras should be also be off the roster ...

    Urshela had a good season  but we have the depth  ,  I like him but it's not my decision  ...

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    $60M to spend, up to $80 if Urshela is moved in non-tender or trade, and if Kepler is moved since it just might be time. Really depends on how major the FO approach is going to be. The fact that "reports" about a Correa offer include trying to resolve things as early as possible is good in how all of this offseason works out is good news. But for now, I'm only addressing the OF situation.

    There's good reasons/scenarios to move Kepler. There's also reasons/scenarios to keep Max.

    While I have fingers crossed in regard to Kirilloff being ready and good to go, or nearly ready, to resume his career and fulfill all his potential, I am not writing his name in ink for the opening day roster anywhere. I have a lot of hope/faith we will get to see Larnach start to bloom in 2023. I'm uncertain how to fully project Wallner, but I think he's a keeper. But I could also see a roster construction where he's at AAA to begin 2023 to work on defense and the little things.  And then we have the nice super-utility Gordon. ALL LH!

    The team has been short a quality RH OF for a few years now. It's been a pretty major need that has been left empty. It's a pretty major need that's been pushed too often aside by the FO as well as debates about other positions.

    Kepler, healthy, is a nice ballplayer. Excellent RF defense, solid CF defense when slid there, decent OB%, runs the bases well, etc. Not a horrible hitter, and pretty good power. Again, with so much youth and talent available, but a few arguments about roster construction, there are reasons to both keep him as well as move him. But regardless, a legitimate, RH bat is needed in ANY roster scenario. And the recently re-signed Garlick, IMO, is around as a fall back, much like Cave was last year.

    Haniger, IMO, is the #1 target. I hate that he is an injury concern. But he's a quality hitter with power and past production when healthy. (He's even covered CF here and there). I believe he's 32yo in 2023, not old, not young. He does have some injury concerns. He only earned $7.75M in 2022. He's basically been under paid by production when healthy. In my blueprint, I had him with a bump to $10M per on a 2yr deal. With a dearth of RH OF anywhere close to the ML level...other than maybe Martin...a 3rd year could be argued. But I'm not sure I buy projections of $12-15M due to age and injuries. 

    If he's affordable, he's my best fit for the Twins.

    I have interest in the over paid Wil Myers, same age, less production, better health, less defense I believe. 

    Don't laugh, but I've contemplated Andrew McCutchen on a 1yr as a 3rd option. While long in the tooth for a ML player, and no longer the player he once was, he wasn't bad in 2022, following a pretty nice 2021. Might he still have solid value/production hitting primarily against LH pitching? I don't think I'm crazy in my thinking.

    There is a TON to see unfold over the next few months. And trying to predict what is going to happen is like picking a lotto ticket winner. But unless we see some major surprises taking place, one thing that just can't be ignored is a legitimate to very good RH OF. Haniger has some risk, but he's also the perfect choice to bring on board.

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    His Health is the reason why you don't.

    Everything else is the reason why you do. 

    Here's a thought exercise. 

    Look at our current roster of hitters. Rank them 1 through 10. 

    Here's mine

    1. Buxton

    2. Arraez

    3. Polanco

    4. Miranda

    5. Urshela

    You don't have to go all the way to 10 in your rankings. Once you get to 3 you realize that you need a bopper that is easily in that top 3.

    Haniger has consistently been that guy when healthy. 

     

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    The Twins are definitely light on power hitters. Especially right-handed ones. None of the young guys have proven they can stay on the field or that they are the answer. Hanniger would fill that role. I'm not excited to add another often-injured player to the mix. Hanniger or Myers on a 1-year deal would be great. More than that not so much. 

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    Big fan of Haniger! If Schwarber and his whiffle bat are worth 4/$79, Mitch is worth more than 3/$39. Twins have the flexibility to offer him a lucrative contract with incentives to bring him to $20 per. When healthy, he is worth every penny of that and fills a much needed hole on the roster. 

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    I had him in my plan which assumed Kepler would be traded.  Hanigar will be a modest number of years and there is a lot of upside if he can remain healthy.  Of course, predicting health for a player like this requires a crystal ball.   The potential to get something decent by dealing Kepler makes this swap even more enticing.  Of course, trading established players usually means trading prospects.  Do we have something to go with Kepler that would work for trading for pitching with Miami?  Perhaps Kepler and Polanco or Arraez?  

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    13 hours ago, stringer bell said:

    One healthy season since 2018. Unfortunately, the Twins can't really gamble on a guy who has such an injury history.

    Yeah, I really do like Hanigar, but he struggles to stay on the field.

    I could see the league cooling on him though because of that and perhaps he'll end up needing to do a 1-year make-good deal to rebuild his value.

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    1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

    Yeah, I really do like Hanigar, but he struggles to stay on the field.

    I could see the league cooling on him though because of that and perhaps he'll end up needing to do a 1-year make-good deal to rebuild his value.

    So Buxton "light" version.  

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    39 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

    Do we have something to go with Kepler that would work for trading for pitching with Miami?  Perhaps Kepler and Polanco or Arraez?  

    We hope that Falvey has a series of conversations seeking some combination of players that would interest Miami to trade Pablo Lopez and/or maybe someone else to the Twins. Miami should sign Nimmo, but that is big bucks and he is often injured. Kepler and Arraez would be a fair return for Lopez.

    Haniger would be a great pickup after the team has settled c, ss, & sp. He would be decent as a DH/OF. It does seem like the Twins need to keep the DH spot open for Buxton and others in some rotation.

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    14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

    $60M to spend, up to $80 if Urshela is moved in non-tender or trade, and if Kepler is moved since it just might be time. Really depends on how major the FO approach is going to be. The fact that "reports" about a Correa offer include trying to resolve things as early as possible is good in how all of this offseason works out is good news. But for now, I'm only addressing the OF situation.

    There's good reasons/scenarios to move Kepler. There's also reasons/scenarios to keep Max.

    While I have fingers crossed in regard to Kirilloff being ready and good to go, or nearly ready, to resume his career and fulfill all his potential, I am not writing his name in ink for the opening day roster anywhere. I have a lot of hope/faith we will get to see Larnach start to bloom in 2023. I'm uncertain how to fully project Wallner, but I think he's a keeper. But I could also see a roster construction where he's at AAA to begin 2023 to work on defense and the little things.  And then we have the nice super-utility Gordon. ALL LH!

    The team has been short a quality RH OF for a few years now. It's been a pretty major need that has been left empty. It's a pretty major need that's been pushed too often aside by the FO as well as debates about other positions.

    Kepler, healthy, is a nice ballplayer. Excellent RF defense, solid CF defense when slid there, decent OB%, runs the bases well, etc. Not a horrible hitter, and pretty good power. Again, with so much youth and talent available, but a few arguments about roster construction, there are reasons to both keep him as well as move him. But regardless, a legitimate, RH bat is needed in ANY roster scenario. And the recently re-signed Garlick, IMO, is around as a fall back, much like Cave was last year.

    Haniger, IMO, is the #1 target. I hate that he is an injury concern. But he's a quality hitter with power and past production when healthy. (He's even covered CF here and there). I believe he's 32yo in 2023, not old, not young. He does have some injury concerns. He only earned $7.75M in 2022. He's basically been under paid by production when healthy. In my blueprint, I had him with a bump to $10M per on a 2yr deal. With a dearth of RH OF anywhere close to the ML level...other than maybe Martin...a 3rd year could be argued. But I'm not sure I buy projections of $12-15M due to age and injuries. 

    If he's affordable, he's my best fit for the Twins.

    I have interest in the over paid Wil Myers, same age, less production, better health, less defense I believe. 

    Don't laugh, but I've contemplated Andrew McCutchen on a 1yr as a 3rd option. While long in the tooth for a ML player, and no longer the player he once was, he wasn't bad in 2022, following a pretty nice 2021. Might he still have solid value/production hitting primarily against LH pitching? I don't think I'm crazy in my thinking.

    There is a TON to see unfold over the next few months. And trying to predict what is going to happen is like picking a lotto ticket winner. But unless we see some major surprises taking place, one thing that just can't be ignored is a legitimate to very good RH OF. Haniger has some risk, but he's also the perfect choice to bring on board.

    I'm right there with you on Cutch. He is actually the FA I'd like most at the expected price. 

    Haniger is solid as well, but even discarding the testicular explosion, he has a history of soft tissue injuries, which are often the recurring kind.

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    Last thing we need are unhealthy/easily injured players.  We are WS winners in that category.  But it would be nice to have a HR DH.  No idea where Twins HR's will come from next season.

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    1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

    I had him in my plan which assumed Kepler would be traded.  Hanigar will be a modest number of years and there is a lot of upside if he can remain healthy.  Of course, predicting health for a player like this requires a crystal ball.   The potential to get something decent by dealing Kepler makes this swap even more enticing.  Of course, trading established players usually means trading prospects.  Do we have something to go with Kepler that would work for trading for pitching with Miami?  Perhaps Kepler and Polanco or Arraez?  

    Maybe, but anyone interested in Kepler is probably interested in Hanigar themselves. Unless the Twins eat salary, the buyer's on the hook for 9.5M with Kepler while the hypothetical AAV of Hanigar was $13M, who I think is the significantly better player.

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    2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

    Maybe, but anyone interested in Kepler is probably interested in Hanigar themselves. Unless the Twins eat salary, the buyer's on the hook for 9.5M with Kepler while the hypothetical AAV of Hanigar was $13M, who I think is the significantly better player.

    I agree completely.  That's why I was thinking Snatching up Hanigar in what is a weak corner OF market would put the Twins in a good position.   Eating a little salary could put them in a good position to work out a trade with Miami for pitching.  They could get something decent for Kepler even if a deal could not be made with Miami.

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    There are other players we can pay 16 million a year to. And they have not had serious injuries. Not too many good right fielders are available. But there are a few good left fielders.. Also why would we add another outfielder anyway? We have plenty that need to see time in the majors. Also we might look at trading for someone in a position of need. Like catcher or possibly short or first. I would personally like Josh Bell. But everyone will say I'm crazy. But he's 16 or 17 million a year. We have 60 plus million to spend depending on how many players we keep. From what I can see if we want a true ace, that will be about 20 million. Leaving us 5 or 6 for a RP. And then good bat like Bell and a catcher would be at about 20 to 25 million more . Leaving us enough for a second tier shortstop. The only way we have more money is to trade either kepler or Polanko or both.

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    3 hours ago, Stew said:

    There are other players we can pay 16 million a year to. And they have not had serious injuries. Not too many good right fielders are available. But there are a few good left fielders.. Also why would we add another outfielder anyway? We have plenty that need to see time in the majors. Also we might look at trading for someone in a position of need. Like catcher or possibly short or first. I would personally like Josh Bell. But everyone will say I'm crazy. But he's 16 or 17 million a year. We have 60 plus million to spend depending on how many players we keep. From what I can see if we want a true ace, that will be about 20 million. Leaving us 5 or 6 for a RP. And then good bat like Bell and a catcher would be at about 20 to 25 million more . Leaving us enough for a second tier shortstop. The only way we have more money is to trade either kepler or Polanko or both.

    I am not sure how you define "Ace" but $20M does not buy what I would call an Ace.  Verlander and Degrom are going to get double that number.  Rodon will probably be closer to $30 than $20M even with the injury concerns.

    As to why, Hanigar is a different profile than our other OFers.  Signing him also frees up Kepler to be traded and the net effect of such a swap would be we add more talent.  However, you are correct, there are lots of places they could spend their free agent budget.

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    I have an idea I'll try here. Trade Kepler, polanko, urshela. That and not resigning correa will get our spending to 65 million. If we truly spend  140 million. We would have enough money for rondon listed at 29million. Josh bell at 17million. Tommy Pham at  about 7 million. A stopgap shortstop at about 7 million.  A good bullpen arm at 6 million . That leaves us enough money to pay Murphy the catcher from Oakland if we can trade for him.   The line up would be:                            1st : bell.                                          2nd: arreaz

                short ingleis                                  3rd : miranda.                                Lf :  pham.                                       Cf : buxton.                                     Rf : Walner or kirloff.                   C :. Murphy

    Edited by Stew
    Spacing of words messed up.
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    Been saying we need an OF power bat all year. Any chance Hosmer & his pre- paid contract is available for 1B?

    Kiriloff can't seem to get on the field & Miranda belongs at 3B and Arraez is a liability at any position.(trade him please). Gordon backs up 2nd & 5th OF.

    Maybe Urshela can backup 3B & SS??

    Will Lewis be able to play??

    So many question marks.

    SP, SS, 1B, & OF power bat all need to be answered.

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    5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

    Signing him also frees up Kepler to be traded and the net effect of such a swap would be we add more talent. 

    Why would that other team trade for Kepler?  They should just outbid us for Haniger and save the prospect capital.

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    Just now, ashbury said:

    Why would that other team trade for Kepler?  They should just outbid us for Haniger and save the prospect capital.

    Someone might prefer a LH bat and Kepler's defense.  It could also be a budget thing.  What if we ate most of Kepler's contract this year.  That could be a $10-12M difference.  For some teams that's a difference maker.  Plus, what do we expect Hanigar to get in years?  He probably gets at least 3 years.  Another team might prefer the 1 year commitment with Kepler plus a team option year.   

    Maybe Hanigar just does not want to play for that other team.  Maybe he does not want to play here either.   

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