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  • Mission Accomplished: An Elite Twins Bullpen


    Ted Schwerzler

    As the month of July came to an end, Minnesota Twins fans watched with anticipation hoping that their club was going to make the necessary bullpen acquisitions. When the dust settled it was Segio Romo and Sam Dyson that were brought into the fold. Since then though, Rocco Baldelli has managed the second best bullpen in the big leagues and its been for every reason but the ones that were expected.

    Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

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    For months there was a growing notion that the Twins would make a move. This club looked the part and jumped out to a big divisional lead. With a relief corps that could use some reinforcements, the front office would almost assuredly deal from depth to bolster the bullpen. Although it didn’t happen in as timely of a matter as some may have hoped, and there could have been some hiccups avoided mid-summer, moves came. Two veteran arms with high ceilings would be added to a back end that already had some promise.

    But then, two became one, and a handful emerged.

    Dyson was the best reliever dealt at the deadline. There were bigger names that weren’t moved, but it was he who had previous closing experience and top-notch stuff. He has since been shut down and it looks like his season may be over. Romo and his wipe-out slider are still getting the job done, and he’s stuck in high leverage as expected. One of the two moves worked, but it’s the ones set into motion many months before that are truly paying off.

    Back in February I suggested that the Twins would win 92 games en route to a Central division crown. Chief among the reasons was the revamped coaching staff and infrastructure within the organization. The current group is a collaborative power that is constantly changing on the fly and looking for an opportunity to exploit the next level out of each player. For some, it takes longer to unlock then others, but if there’s a way this contingent of coaches is going to find the right buttons. There’s no more apparent area currently reflective of that then the bullpen.

    Since the trade deadline the Twins have posted 2.9 fWAR (2nd in MLB). Their 2.06 BB/9 is the lowest in baseball as is the 3.58 FIP that suggests they’re even better than a fifth best 3.67 ERA. The 1.54 WPA is fifth in baseball and one of just 12 teams currently putting up positive numbers. No one has opponents chasing more than the Twins' 35.2% and the arms they’re doing it with are virtually all home grown.

    You already know Taylor Rogers is an absolute menace. He’s a lefty with high velocity stuff that doesn’t care what side of the plate you stand on. Tyler Duffey owns 0.8 fWAR since August 1st and hasn’t given up a run since July 23 (a streak of 18.2 IP). He has a ridiculous 30/5 K/BB in that time, and looks the part of the elite closer that Minnesota drafted out of Rice way back in 2012.

    Looking for his calling with the Twins, there’s no denying Trevor May appears to have found it. Despite an ugly breaking pitch against Cleveland, and one that Rafael Devers beat him on in Boston, his 20 innings since the deadline have been exceptional. May has generated 0.5 fWAR and has allowed just those two earned runs in 20.0 IP. He has a 25/4 K/BB and opposing batters have mustered a sad .325 OPS against him.

    Arguably the most impressive work comes from the guy that the least was expected of. Still just 23-years-old, Zack Littell was asked to take a game against the Rays on the chin in May. He went back to Triple-A and transitioned to relief. Ramping up the velocity in shorter stints, he showcased his stuff in brief call-ups throughout the year. Now adding the time up, he’s pitched 24.2 innings in relief since June. Littell has allowed just two runs, both in the same outing, and has 21 strikeouts to his credit. He’s still working through command issues at times, but the .209 batting average against is exceptional.

    With just two weeks left until postseason baseball, Minnesota’s earliest bugaboo has now become an area of strength. This isn’t a lineup that needs to pad a starter’s lead bridging a gap to Taylor Rogers. The Twins are something like six or seven deep in quality arms, and none of those guys could care less who is in the opposing batter's box. Opponents may not have heard of anyone aside from the elder statesmen Romo, but this is a group that will generate name recognition as they turn from the plate watching the ball go around the horn following any given at-bat.

    There’s no denying that Rocco Baldelli is going to need a healthy dose of mix and match in October. Only the Astros go deep enough to throw starting cares to the wind. Teams like Minnesota will need to get what they can from the first man on the bump and then turn it over to the reinforcements behind the wall. Fortunately for this group, everyone from Baldelli to Wes Johnson, Jeremy Hefner, and the entirety of the minor league pitching support staff deserves a significant pat on the back for the speed with which they turned a deficiency into an asset.

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    For the playoffs...

     

    1. Rogers

    2. Romo

    3. Duffey

    4. May

    5. Littell

     

    6. You need a lefty long-relief guy. Smeltzer has been better than Thorpe, but is maybe less able to be used as a true relief arm as well. Then again, should the Twins even use a traditional third and fourth starter? Maybe Perez can fill this role?

     

    7. Dobnak has earned this spot.

     

    8. Graterol, hell yeah.

    Right now I have as much or more faith in Sashak than Gibson and Perez.    I would feel a little sorry for them but I think Gibson does not make the cut unless he shows some thing better than he has for the last two months.

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    ........ If you are going to make the claim that you are "guessing some [better relievers] will be available" please provide names. Otherwise you are simply refuting someone's thought with the assumption the Twins can find the rarest resource in baseball; quality, cheap bullpen arms.

     

    How about Ryan Pressly? I heard another team had made him available.....

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    Given the life expectancy of typical relievers, it isn’t insanity to think he could be done. How many figured Addison Reed was cooked? Dyson is a year OLDER. At the $8 mil arb award he’s likely to get, I would want a little surer bet. I’m guessing some will be available.

     

    You said that you expected him to be nontendered. That's insanity. Could he be done? Yeah. Any pitcher could. Is he more likely than any other? Not particularly.

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    You said that you expected him to be nontendered. That's insanity. Could he be done? Yeah. Any pitcher could. Is he more likely than any other? Not particularly.

    Well, they certainly aren’t going to tender him without considerable medical evaluation. You know: fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Pushing 32, already hurt. Good luck getting a thumbs up.

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    What part do you disagree with? The title? its content? Specific parts of the content? That it exists at all?

     

    Asking for friends.

    It shouldn't matter, but I'm pretty sure it's been implied 2x now. 

     

    Stating for a friend of course.....

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    Romo is a FA. And I would want to upgrade there anyway. At some point his junk is going to stop fooling hitters.

    Dude's got three rings and is smoother than Horitos Plata, I want to watch him next year he's a winner baby!

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    One of the things that I get and don't get is how Twins fans underrate what Tyler Duffey has done lately.

     

    He has literally been the best reliever in baseball for the past two months. Since the beginning of August, he has pitched 17.1 innings and struck out 30 (!!!!!) hitters.

     

    THIRTY HITTERS. IN SEVENTEEN INNINGS.

     

    Velocity ain't everything.

     

    I trust Duffey more than anyone but Rogers, and I'm not sure about that call.

     

    And when you can call Rogers, Romo, Duffey, Littel, that's kinda fierce.

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    One of the things that I get and don't get is how Twins fans underrate what Tyler Duffey has done lately.

     

    He has literally been the best reliever in baseball for the past two months. Since the beginning of August, he has pitched 17.1 innings and struck out 30 (!!!!!) hitters.

     

    THIRTY HITTERS. IN SEVENTEEN INNINGS.

     

    Velocity ain't everything.

     

    I trust Duffey more than anyone but Rogers, and I'm not sure about that call.

     

    And when you can call Rogers, Romo, Duffey, Littel, that's kinda fierce.

    yeah, those are some impressive numbers... I think my point is mainly that we're in a bit of SSS territory before I'd use the word elite. 

     

    Am I comfortable with these guys going into 2020? Yes.

     

    I'm not ready to crown them the mid-2000s Twins pen equivalents though either...

     

    And I really REALLY REALLY hope that Falvine makes some efforts to bring in good starters this offseason. This team could be really dangerous with some higher end starting pitching. 

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    yeah, those are some impressive numbers... I think my point is mainly that we're in a bit of SSS territory before I'd use the word elite.

     

    Am I comfortable with these guys going into 2020? Yes.

     

    I'm not ready to crown them the mid-2000s Twins pen equivalents though either...

     

    And I really REALLY REALLY hope that Falvine makes some efforts to bring in good starters this offseason. This team could be really dangerous with some higher end starting pitching.

    Concur. The pen has been hot, which is perfect timing for the playoffs. I'm certainly not ready to crown them elite and forgo signing others to improve it.

     

    This winter I want them to go high end for starters, and keep tossing darts for bullpen help.

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    Well, they certainly aren’t going to tender him without considerable medical evaluation. You know: fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Pushing 32, already hurt. Good luck getting a thumbs up.

     

    At $8 million, they'll tender him unless they see something in medicals. There's really no chance they're going to see anything since they didn't see anything when they traded for him. This isn't something that shows up on medical exams clearly.

     

    And again, biceps tendinitis is not some huge lingering issue. The prescription for it is rest. That's hard to get during the season but not particularly difficult in the offseason. Maybe he's injured next Spring but it won't be for biceps tendinitis.

     

    You're sticking to a position that doesn't make sense. The amount involved is so small that the reward far outweighs the risk. Dyson has been a very good reliever every year since 2014 (except 2017 notably). Guys like that get multiple years at $8 mill on the free market.

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    Concur. The pen has been hot, which is perfect timing for the playoffs. I'm certainly not ready to crown them elite and forgo signing others to improve it.

    This winter I want them to go high end for starters, and keep tossing darts for bullpen help.

     

    It'll be interesting to see which door the FO chooses:

     

    Door 1: Trust that three of Thorpe, Graterol, Smeltzer, Littel, Stewart etc. are ready to start, with potential reinforcement by Alcala or other MILB prospects. Maybe sign a cheap veteran starter but focus on adding a few bullpen pieces to Dyson, Rogers, Duffey and May.

     

    Door 2: Go get two to three multi-year high-to-medium end starters. This is more of an all-in move by the Twins and may require a trade since impact free agent starters don't generally hit FA. The pitchers who aren't involved in trades solidify the back end of a bullpen.

     

    Door 3: Go get one high-to-medium end starter and hope that the aforementioned guys can fill the back of the rotation. Might mean you go get one bullpen arm to augment the back end of the pen.

     

    The nice thing is that the Twins have options and can read the market. If there aren't going to be pitchers available (e.g. the trade market is weak, the Astros resign Cole, Straousburg gets dinged up in the playoffs and opts in, etc.) and the price is high, they can pivot to the bullpen market. If there are some nice solid starters out there or the Twins can take advantage of newer tanking teams (the Pirates for Archer comes to mind), then the Twins can get out of the risky bullpen market and play it by ear.

     

    FWIW, I like Door #3. I'd like to see them go get a strong #2 to line up behind Berrios for the next few years (someone like Carl Pavano) and trust that their pitching-minded FO can fill in the rest. Smeltzer, Thorpe, and a few free agent retreads can fill out the back end until the deadline. It really seems like a few of these current relievers should stay as such - Littel, maybe Graterol? The Twins this year have shown how a deep pen can cover a few starters who only go through the lineup twice. I wouldn't mind seeing that continue, especially for an AL team with a lot of versatile position players that enable you to carry one more pitcher.

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    It'll be interesting to see which door the FO chooses:

     

    Door 1: Trust that three of Thorpe, Graterol, Smeltzer, Littel, Stewart etc. are ready to start, with potential reinforcement by Alcala or other MILB prospects. Maybe sign a cheap veteran starter but focus on adding a few bullpen pieces to Dyson, Rogers, Duffey and May.

     

    Door 2: Go get two to three multi-year high-to-medium end starters. This is more of an all-in move by the Twins and may require a trade since impact free agent starters don't generally hit FA. The pitchers who aren't involved in trades solidify the back end of a bullpen.

     

    Door 3: Go get one high-to-medium end starter and hope that the aforementioned guys can fill the back of the rotation. Might mean you go get one bullpen arm to augment the back end of the pen.

     

    The nice thing is that the Twins have options and can read the market. If there aren't going to be pitchers available (e.g. the trade market is weak, the Astros resign Cole, Straousburg gets dinged up in the playoffs and opts in, etc.) and the price is high, they can pivot to the bullpen market. If there are some nice solid starters out there or the Twins can take advantage of newer tanking teams (the Pirates for Archer comes to mind), then the Twins can get out of the risky bullpen market and play it by ear.

     

    FWIW, I like Door #3. I'd like to see them go get a strong #2 to line up behind Berrios for the next few years (someone like Carl Pavano) and trust that their pitching-minded FO can fill in the rest. Smeltzer, Thorpe, and a few free agent retreads can fill out the back end until the deadline. It really seems like a few of these current relievers should stay as such - Littel, maybe Graterol? The Twins this year have shown how a deep pen can cover a few starters who only go through the lineup twice. I wouldn't mind seeing that continue, especially for an AL team with a lot of versatile position players that enable you to carry one more pitcher.

    I prefer door #2 but wouldn't be opposed to door #3 either. I concur with you about keeping former starters Littell and Graterol in the bullpen. Littell has certainly found a home there and could be counted on as a late inning reliever.

     

    It's going to take a huge ramp up for Graterol to start again. I just don't see a jump from 80 ish innings to 150 next year, which would be respectable starting numbers. The risk of injury seems too much to have him make that innings increase.

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    I prefer door #2 but wouldn't be opposed to door #3 either. I concur with you about keeping former starters Littell and Graterol in the bullpen. Littell has certainly found a home there and could be counted on as a late inning reliever.

    It's going to take a huge ramp up for Graterol to start again. I just don't see a jump from 80 ish innings to 150 next year, which would be respectable starting numbers. The risk of injury seems too much to have him make that innings increase.

     

    Maybe he's in the pen but stretches out to be a longer guy so they can get him up to 100-110 innings.

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    I prefer door #2 but wouldn't be opposed to door #3 either. I concur with you about keeping former starters Littell and Graterol in the bullpen. Littell has certainly found a home there and could be counted on as a late inning reliever.

    It's going to take a huge ramp up for Graterol to start again. I just don't see a jump from 80 ish innings to 150 next year, which would be respectable starting numbers. The risk of injury seems too much to have him make that innings increase.

    I wouldn't put Graterol in the plans for next year. I'd have him starting in the minors and hope to get him into the 120-150 IP range next year... Now if he keeps getting hurt, I think there's a real conversation there about whether or not his future is in the pen. 

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    Dyson will be back and I'd be willing to bet healthy and looking like his old self. Old self meaning the first half of this season as well.

     

    I think there is a very good chance Romo is back on a 1yr deal. And I'd have no problem with that. He is experienced, effective and performing well. He also seems to be a clubhouse guy. (Added bonus).

     

    Rogers

    Dyson

    Duffey

    May

    Romo

    Littell

    Stashak/Poppen/Alcala

     

    That leaves room for a LH as the 8th man. Smeltzer and especially Thorpe could maybe fill that role. (Thorpe has the better SO stuff). But both should remain in the rotation for 2020. Graterol should and will also be a SP in 2020.

     

    Need to find a quality LH from somewhere and I'd be very happy with what is on hand now for next season.

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    Bullpen for 2020: Rogers, May, Dyson, Littell, Stashak, Duffey. The Twins still need a bonifide closer, although I would be tempted to give that role to...Trevor May.

     

    The rotation is more iffy at this point. Can Dobnak and Smeltzer be a part of the mix? The Twins need two free agents for sure and could maybe add a Pineda to come in if a rookie tryout doesn't woprk.

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