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  • Minnesota’s Second Coming of Rod Carew


    Ted Schwerzler

    It’s time to start talking about it. We’re over 60 games into the 2022 Major League Baseball season and the Minnesota Twins currently have a contender for the batting title. Rod Carew and his seven batting titles with Minnesota will all be remembered fondly, but Luis Arraez could provide the organization’s first since Joe Mauer in 2009.

    Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

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    There’s zero comparison between a Hall of Famer with over 3,000 hits to a lovable utility guy with 300 games under his belt. However, it’s undeniable to see the similarities in style between that of Rod Carew and Luis Arraez.

    Carew entered the league a year younger than Arraez and won his first batting title during just his third professional season. Minnesota’s current utility man is now in his fourth year and recently turned 25. Like Carew, Arraez is now a second basemen while routinely getting reps at first base with Minnesota in a pinch. Longevity aside, Carew’s career .328/.393/.429 slash line is not far off for Arraez who sits at .322/.387/.409.

    This season has been especially fun for Arraez who has been virtually unstoppable against right-handed pitching. In an era where power reigns supreme, Arraez is slashing a ridiculous .401/.482/.497 against righties. He’s well below average contributing just a .220/.304/.220 slash line against southpaws, but Minnesota has done well to limit the exposure giving him just 46 plate appearances in those situations.

    With predominantly more right-handed arms as starting pitchers than left-handed, it stands to reason that Minnesota could continue to see additional output from Arraez as the season goes on. Thus far he’s topped out at a .367 average, that coming just a few games ago. In comparison to Carew, that would rank behind just his .388 season back in 1977.

    Batting average has long gone away as a stat indicative of true performance in and of itself. For a player like Arraez, or even Carew before him, the metric being so lopsided does explain itself, however. Additionally, Arraez contributes in the more definitive on-base area. With 25 walks to just 18 strikeouts, Minnesota’s utility man has captured the ability to not only hit his way on base, but force the opposition into his plan of attack at the plate. Leading baseball with a .444 OBP, Arraez is currently at a mark north of everything Carew hit save for that 1977 year. Considering the change in how baseball is played, it’s fair to argue that Arraez’s performance today may be more substantial than what Carew did all those years ago.

    All of this comes with the caveat that we still have a long ways to go, and that Arraez has previously missed time due to injury. Even at a young age, his knees are bulky and no yearly awards are won in June. Trying to extrapolate anything from a one-year sample is also not a fair situation to put Arraez in. Carew is a legendary name both in Minnesota and Major League Baseball, but it’s certainly hard not to see how closely they relate.

    It’s somewhat a breath of fresh air that we’re seeing a player go against the trends of the sport so heavily. The Twins have largely been shut out in terms of individual awards since the peak of Mauer, and turning the focus back to this organization for that reason is a fun one. Arraez has a long way to go for the rest of 2022, but it’s hard not to look down the path of this coming to fruition.

    What do you think? How closely do you see Arraez relating to Carew? Does the former win his first batting title this season?

     

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    You did not mention that even Carew has been closely watching him and roots for him and has mentioned similarities like his crouch at the plate.  I like that he fouls off a ton of pitches while waiting for one to hit.  Rod did the same.  I recall watching him have like 12, 13, etc. pitch at bats just fouling them off and then punching one to left field.  This also helps the rest of the line up as they get to see the pitches plus he wears out the opposing pitcher.

    I am loving this small ball BB this year and he is a huge part of it for the Twins.  I hope he can hold on for a batting title this year.  Love his energy.  Keep up the great work Luis!

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    4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Zero "stat geeks" have said BA doesn't matter. Sigh.

    Was preparing to respond similarly when I saw yours.  Let me add this perspective: "stat geeks" so "despise" BA that when they designed OPS they included BA twice.  Because BA contributes to on-base percentage, and BA contributes to slugging average  At any given point in a season, a humble seeing-eye single improves a batter's OBP and it improves his SLG (unless maybe he's Barry Bonds on some sort of tear).  And then you add 'em up.

    Contact is arguably the most indispensable of the tools, and "stat geeks" honor it in many ways.  Zero "stat geeks" have said BA doesn-... well, you said that already.

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    14 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

    But ultimately Luis is Luis and he is and will be one of a kind. 

    "One of a kind" is apt.  Baseball-reference.com has this fun tool called Similarity Scores (developed by a certified "stat geek" way back when), and Luis now has enough plate appearances for them to invoke it. 

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arraelu01.shtml#all_ss_other

    Look at the guys he statistically he matches up with best at age 24.  You have to go down to #6, Matt Duffy, to find a similar player whose career started after 1950.  Luis wouldn't have seemed one of a kind back in 1871, when someone named Ezra Sutton* started his long and not very remarkable pro career.  But Luis kind of is, now, and is indeed remarkable.

    It's been said that one mark of a great player is that it's hard to find comparable players to him.  Of course, that point of view can lead you to Willians Astudillo, too.  But it's true of a good unique hitter like Arraez.

    * For additional stat geek fun, go to Sutton's b-r.com page and look at his simiiarity scores.  I spotted no names except Arraez (in the age-24 group) from anything like the modern era.

     

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    Arraez's knees should be a lot less of an issue if he strengthens his legs and avoids keeps his weight under control. His sprint speed hasn't shown any improvement this year, but he does seem a little lighter seeing him in person.

    It's fun to watch him at the plate this year, especially after he struggled down the stretch last season. I felt the Twins were likely going to move him this offseason, and I still think they would have without the lockout condensing the offseason down.

    I'm a big fan of him, but I don't think he's an elite player like Gwynn and Carew were if Arraez doesn't increase his speed. There's also the issue of where he plays. He'll never get respect at 1B or DH without a huge influx of power you wouldn't expect from his smaller size. Playing 2B, Arraez is likely capable of being a perennial All Star.

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    10 hours ago, chinmusic said:

    I really don't see the Willans comparison though. Polar opposites regarding pitch count.

    There's only one commonality between Arraez and Astudillo: Both rarely whiff. However, where Tortuga could barrel up just about any pitch, he did not have a plan for where to hit the ball. Arraez actually picks his spots to hit the ball depending where he sees gaps in the defense. Also, Arraez is perfectly willing to take a walk, which El Cherubo considered an insult to his manhood. Or something. It's almost like Astudillo was more concerned with looking like a hero than with doing whatever he could to help the team win. 

    I still liked Astudillo, because he was a gamer all the way. But Arraez is fully engaged in winning games, whatever it takes. Both are fun to watch, but Arraez is a more effective ballplayer. 

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    19 hours ago, chinmusic said:

    Yep, those double digit pitch counts have become an Arraez signature, and they're great!

    I really don't see the Willans comparison though. Polar opposites regarding pitch count.

    Rog said "The one ex-Twin he reminds me a lot of is Astudillo as he brings a lot of the same energy as the Turtle. That comparison ends however, when he steps into the batter's box."

     

    Edit: nevermind

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    21 hours ago, ashbury said:

    Was preparing to respond similarly when I saw yours.  Let me add this perspective: "stat geeks" so "despise" BA that when they designed OPS they included BA twice.  Because BA contributes to on-base percentage, and BA contributes to slugging average  At any given point in a season, a humble seeing-eye single improves a batter's OBP and it improves his SLG (unless maybe he's Barry Bonds on some sort of tear).  And then you add 'em up.

    Contact is arguably the most indispensable of the tools, and "stat geeks" honor it in many ways.  Zero "stat geeks" have said BA doesn-... well, you said that already.

    I remember guys making that kind of argument a some years back. Saying Ichiro's batting titles meant little because he was just a hollow batting average and so on. However, it feels like we've arrived at a more balanced, mature understanding and appreciation of stats today. Discussions have become more respectful and nuanced and you'd be hard-pressed today to find any baseball lover who would claim a .350 batting average could be hollow. 

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    12 hours ago, DJL44 said:

    Ezra Sutton is a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate from that pioneer era.

    Ezra Sutton – Society for American Baseball Research (sabr.org)

     

    I probably undersold Ezra by saying his career wasn't very remarkable.  Anybody who gets paid to do something for almost 20 years, even in the early years of a "business", must be pretty good at it.

    Depending on what you mean by "legitimate" and "candidate", I'd tap the brakes on his HoF credentials, though.  There are a number of nineteenth century players already in the Hall, and there is a SABR committee that studies that century pretty exhaustively.  In fact, and you might already know this, that committee conducts an Overlooked Legends vote each year, to highlight a player they think should be given consideration by Cooperstown.  A couple of years ago they voted for Bud Fowler, giving impetus to Fowler being inducted this year, so I think this SABR initiative is taken fairly seriously.  I don't recall Sutton being touted for this - I refreshed my memory and he wasn't included in the preliminary round of voting this year, at least.  I guess I could ask around, if it really matters, and see whether anyone there has pushed his case.

    If Sutton belongs in the Hall of Very Good, as people sometimes say of players, probably it improves the comparison I was making to Arraez.  So, thank you for that clarification.

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    On 6/14/2022 at 7:36 AM, Old Twins Cap said:

    Carew started out as a slender slasher, bunter, speed guy and developed into a professional hitter, with HR power.  He used his wrists to swing -- smooth and quick, right to the ball, wherever it was pitched.

    Arraez is a battler who swings with his arms, just hammers the ball.  He's stocky, short and strong, with a quick bat, especially for how hard he swings.

    They don't much resemble each other at the plate, just the stat lines.

    They do resemble one another in that they seem to be able to control where they hit the ball (when inclined).  Both Carew and Arraez look for openings and have an uncanny knack for hitting them.  That and the supreme knowledge of the strike zone are the two things I see as the same.

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