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  • MIN 5, CLE 4: Max Power Against Bauer

    Andrew Thares

    By Andrew Thares

    Max Kepler had himself quite the night, taking Indians All-Star pitcher Trevor Bauer deep three times in the Twins 5-4 win in Cleveland. Overall, Kepler finished the night going 4-for-4 with a walk, and out hitting the rest of the Twins team, who had just three hits, and equaling the number hits the Indians had on the night. After losing the first two games of the series, tonight felt like a big game for the Twins to keep the Indians from gaining any momentum as we head into the summer months. Sure an 8.5 game lead on the division is still pretty big, but 10.5 just feels so much bigger.

    Image courtesy of © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score

    Berrios: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 69.2% strikes (74 of 107 pitches)

    Home Runs: Kepler 3 (15)

    Multi-Hit Games: Kepler (4 for 4, 3 HR, BB)

    WPA of +0.1: Kepler .310; Berrios .229; Rogers .200

    WPA of -0.1: Magill -.193

    ccs-10590-0-60022900-1559875849_thumb.png

    (Chart via FanGraphs)

    Kepler got the scoring going on the second pitch of the game when he ended his 0-for-21 streak with a solo shot. This was the third time this season that Kepler hit a first inning leadoff homerun for the Twins.

    https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1136773656049344513

    Kepler added to the scoring again in the top of the third when he took Trevor Bauer deep for the second time tonight. This time it was on a two-strike slider after Kepler did a good job spoiling a couple good two-strike pitches from Bauer.

    https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1136782401768529920

    The Twins struck again in the top of the fifth after Kepler leadoff the inning with a walk. Jorge Polanco then grounded into a fielder’s choice before Mitch Garver drove him in from first with an RBI double. In the seventh Kepler struck again for his third home run of the game, giving the Twins a 5-1 lead.

    https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1136802170697789440

    For his second straight start Jose Berrios had a good outing to get the Twins back on their winning ways after a tough loss. Berrios absolutely shut down the Indians lineup for six plus innings tonight, but made just one mistake to Roberto Perez in the fifth inning that he drove over the wall in the right-center field gap. Berrios had the changeup working especially well, picking up four of his six strikeouts with it. Despite being over a hundred pitches through six innings, Rocco Baldelli left Berrios in to start the seventh. He did a good job getting Jose Ramirez to roll over on a changeup, but Jonathan Schoop bobbled the ball and Ramirez reached, ending the night for Berrios.

    Matt Magill came in to relieve Berrios, hoping to bounce back from his terrible outing on Sunday in Tampa. Unfortunately that wasn’t to be, as he walked Jordan Luplow on four pitches and gave up an RBI single to Tyler Naquin, causing Baldelli to go back to the pen to get Trevor May to get out of the jam. May came in doing his part, allowing just one run to score, on a sac-fly from Roberto Perez, before getting Leoyns Martin and Francisco Lindor to get out of the jam.

    Taylor Rogers came in to start the eighth inning and picked up a two inning save. Rogers looked unhittable getting each of the first five guys he faced out, three of which were via the strikeout. However, he made things interesting after he gave up a two-out home run to Oscar Mercado. Rogers shut the door on the Twins win on the next batter getting Roberto Perez to groundout.

    Postgame with Baldelli

    https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1136829468763230208

    Bullpen Usage

    Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

    ccs-10590-0-50168000-1559875934_thumb.png

    Next Three Games

    Fri at DET, 6:10 pm CT (TBD-Boyd)

    Sat at DET, 3:10 pm CT (Gibson-TBD)

    Sun at DET, 12:10 pm CT (Odorizzi-Carpenter)

    Last Game

    CLE 9, MIN 7: Bullpen Crumbles on Night Kimbrel Signs With Cubs

    Attachments:
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    Follow Andrew Thares on Twitter: AndrewThares

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    Featured Comments

    IndianaTwin

    IndianaTwin 6,543

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

      On 6/7/2019 at 12:57 PM, Han Joelo said:

     

    And to be clear, according to math, Kepler has room for even more power.  At least I think this is what that means.

     

     

    To clarify, that's using the imperial system. In metric, and after reducing the fractions, I came up with...

     

    PMax = CLeVe/LaND

     

     

     

     

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    Tom Froemming

    Tom Froemming 9,895

  • Twins Daily Staff

    • Posted

     

      On 6/7/2019 at 12:56 PM, Han Joelo said:

    Tom, while  I don't spend a ton of time analyzing the charts, I've come to expect them, and always get a kick out of looking at them.  One of several unique "signature" items one just won't find anywhere else.

     

    It was really telling the other day, reading one of the loss recaps on MLB.com before yours--it largely focused on the positives from Cleveland's perspective.  It was so nice to come here and get the whole story--the good, bad, and ugly.

    I've done a ton of experimenting, but to my knowledge those are the only element that have been in every single game recap here. So I am inclined to keep them, but if people just glance right over each time they're not worth the trouble, Glad to hear you find them valuable.

     

    We assume readers have had some sort of interaction with the game prior to reading these. Whether it's watching the entire thing, participating in the threads here, following on social media or reading another recap, people more than likely aren't coming here first. And that's OK, but our aim to have those unique, signature elements is always going to need to be there. We have to do things a little differently from everywhere else.

     

    I'm just trying to see if there may be a way to lower the degree of difficulty in putting them together without dumbing them down too much. Maybe I'll look elsewhere.

     

      On 6/7/2019 at 12:58 PM, USAFChief said:

    I'm old school, and pay no attention to the win expectancy charts. IMO they don't tell me anything I wouldn't already intuitively sense from watching the game. I'm sure for many, however, these are useful and interesting.

     

    Many people probably ignore them, but I love box scores, so please don't discard the link for that.

     

    I also love the post game thoughts from Baldelli. I don't have access to that, living out of town.

     

    And THANK YOU (and all the game recappers) for these. Really, really appreciated.

    Thanks for the feedback. There's an aim to have something for new school and old school in these. It can be tough to try to cast a wide net like that without completely losing one or the other.

     

      On 6/7/2019 at 1:05 PM, Original Whizzinator said:

    The bullpen usage charts are sliced bread!

    Those aren't going anywhere, I promise.

     

      On 6/7/2019 at 1:05 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

    I clicked into this article solely to see Kepler’s WPA last night.

    Neither is the WPA info. If anything, I might want to add another line or two in that top section with the stats.

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    IndianaTwin

    IndianaTwin 6,543

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Thanks, Tom, for bringing the Game Recaps to TD and for the significant work that must go into it. As others have noted, it’s great to be able to get all this stuff in a single place. It’s essential reading, even when I’ve listened to or watched the game. I’m especially impressed with how quickly they get compiled and posted. Amongst the things on TD, the Game Recaps may be the singular best thing here. Of course, that’s kinda like saying that the Scotcheroos are the best thing at the potluck.

     

    I love it all, including WPA. Though I don’t know how to calculate it, it’s a nice way to getting a picture of both the big plays and the guys who may not have been featured in the lead. Bullpen usage chart is particularly useful, since that would be the hardest thing to find elsewhere.

     

    Only idea I have — in the links at the end of the article, how about including a link to that night’s Game Thread.*

     

    *And to continue the analogy, Game Threads are like the potluck’s chocolate fluff. I pretty much dive face-first into both every chance I get.

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    Aerodeliria

    Aerodeliria 1,398

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

      On 6/7/2019 at 12:57 PM, bighat said:

    I have May much lower. Parker higher. Parker had one rough game recently and May had one good game recently. Don't let a couple of outings from one night make you forget the rest of the games.And let's not forget that May has been used in low-leverage situations most of the month of May as well. Parker has 5 saves, May doesn't have any. Says something.

     

    1. Rogers

    2. Harper

    3. Morin

    4. Parker

    5. May

    6. Macgill

    7. Duffey

    I confess that my complaints against Parker are purely subjective and have no foundation in any data--just my strange, uncomfortable, gut feeling I get every single time he comes in. (The meltdown was not was not the sole reason for the lowering; although, I may have dropped him from 5th to 7th.)

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    Aerodeliria

    Aerodeliria 1,398

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

      On 6/7/2019 at 12:49 PM, Tom Froemming said:

    I'm considering making some changes to these game recaps and would love some feedback if anybody's interested in helping out with some market research :)

     

    -Do you enjoy the win expectancy charts?

    I think they're cool, but for a lot of games they don't add a whole lot of flavor. I get the sense that most readers just gloss right over them the majority of the time, so I'm thinking about ditching them.

     

    -Is there any important information we're missing?

    I have some ideas for small, simple things to add, but I'm curious if any of you have any ideas. Is there something you're constantly having to look up elsewhere that could easily be included in these?

     

    Thanks for reading everybody, and thanks to Andrew and all the new writers for joining in on the fun. 

     

    Also, Happy Anniversary! Two years ago today, I did my first game recap here. It was ... different :)

    I read the articles; I check the Fangraphs' game flow; I check the bullpen usage. I ALWAYS check WPA of the players. Please keep it coming! (and many thanks for the efforts)

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    Aerodeliria

    Aerodeliria 1,398

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

      On 6/7/2019 at 1:23 PM, USAFChief said:

    1) Rogers 

     

     

     

    5) May

    6) Parker

    7) Ron Davis

    7a) Everyday Eddie, 2019 version

    8) Harper

    9) Duffey

    10) Magill

     

    12) Morin

    Oh, I forgot about Ron Davis. We always sat in the left field bleachers, and my friend and I would say let's put on our batting helmets; Ron Davis is in the game. There was also Juan Berenguer who I would rank above Ron Davis just because of his nickname.

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

      On 6/7/2019 at 3:44 PM, Alex Schieferdecker said:

    Trust:

    Rogers

     

    Mostly Trust:

    Harper

     

    Sometimes Trust:

    Parker

    May

     

    Hasn't Given A Reason Not To Trust... Yet

    Morin

     

    Don't Trust But Has Actually Been Pretty Good So Far

    Duffers

     

    Don't Trust

    Magill

    Love your categories. Not sure I'd rank them identically, but good approach!

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    AceWrigley

    AceWrigley 2,650

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    The bullpen usage charts are great. A nice snapshot of who has been racking up the pitches and who might or might not be able  to pitch next game. Not that they are done here, but I also like the last week's worth of hitting stats to see who is hot or cold.

    Edited by AceWrigley
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    USAFChief

    USAFChief 58,010

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

      On 6/7/2019 at 3:44 PM, Alex Schieferdecker said:

    Trust:

    Rogers

     

    Mostly Trust:

    Harper

     

    Sometimes Trust:

    Parker

    May

     

    Hasn't Given A Reason Not To Trust... Yet

    Morin

     

    Don't Trust But Has Actually Been Pretty Good So Far

    Duffers

     

    Don't Trust

    Magill

    Personally, I'd move Duffey down to 

     

    Wouldn't trust to hit water if he jumped out of  boat

     

    With MaGill and Morin in whatever category comes after that.

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    Han Joelo

    Han Joelo 3,058

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

      On 6/7/2019 at 3:44 PM, Alex Schieferdecker said:

    Trust:

    Rogers

     

    Mostly Trust:

    Harper

     

    Sometimes Trust:

    Parker

    May

     

    Hasn't Given A Reason Not To Trust... Yet

    Morin

     

    Don't Trust But Has Actually Been Pretty Good So Far

    Duffers

     

    Don't Trust

    Magill

     

    This sums it up nicely for me.  I think up until the last game, I had May in that same category with Duffman.

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I read the whole thing every time. Love these.

     

    I always look at the WPA. I usually watch any highlights. I never watch the manager talk. I like the win expectancy chart. When the bullpen is being used a lot, I look at the chart, but maybe only once a week.

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    Tom Froemming

    Tom Froemming 9,895

  • Twins Daily Staff

    • Posted

     

      On 6/7/2019 at 2:53 PM, IndianaTwin said:

    Only idea I have — in the links at the end of the article, how about including a link to that night’s Game Thread.*

    That's a good suggestion. I was linking to those in the early goings but stopped and can't remember why.

     

      On 6/7/2019 at 4:12 PM, AceWrigley said:

    The bullpen usage charts are great. A nice snapshot of who has been racking up the pitches and who might or might not be able  to pitch next game. Not that they are done here, but I also like the last week's worth of hitting stats to see who is hot or cold.

    I might run that hot/cold idea by Nick to see if he'd be interested in including that somewhere in his Week in Review. That's a good one.

     

     

    Thanks everybody for the feedback. Happy to hear a lot of you are looking at those win expectancy charts. We'll keep including them, glad I asked.

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    Squirrel

    Squirrel 37,605

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

    Concur with Chief on the Baldelli game recaps. Being an out-of-towner, I don't get to see these. Of course, I could search for them on my own, but this place is my one-stop, all things Twins, place, so ... love that these are included. And I like everything else. I'm not a charts/graph person, so sometimes I do just fly over them, but I do sometimes really look at them. It usually depends on how much of the game I've actually been able to see or not, as well as if we won or not. 

     

    These recaps, along with the daily minor league recaps, are two of the most important aspects of the site ... if I were forced to choose just two. :)

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    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

      On 6/7/2019 at 12:49 PM, Tom Froemming said:

    I'm considering making some changes to these game recaps and would love some feedback if anybody's interested in helping out with some market research :)

     

    -Do you enjoy the win expectancy charts?

    I think they're cool, but for a lot of games they don't add a whole lot of flavor. I get the sense that most readers just gloss right over them the majority of the time, so I'm thinking about ditching them.

     

    -Is there any important information we're missing?

    I have some ideas for small, simple things to add, but I'm curious if any of you have any ideas. Is there something you're constantly having to look up elsewhere that could easily be included in these?

     

    Thanks for reading everybody, and thanks to Andrew and all the new writers for joining in on the fun. 

     

    Also, Happy Anniversary! Two years ago today, I did my first game recap here. It was ... different :)

     

    Having a link to the box scores on a consistent basis would be nice... but honestly, you've done a pretty fantastic job on these... Love the pen usage stuff.

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    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

      On 6/7/2019 at 1:05 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

    I clicked into this article solely to see Kepler’s WPA last night.

    only thing my colleagues said today was something along the lines of ****ing Kepler... and "never a good day when someone is getting compared to Ted Williams"...  

     

    2nd time he's absolutely owned Cleveland in a game, though if I remember right, his actions in 2016 also carried over to some of the other games that series..

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    MN_ExPat

    MN_ExPat 1,845

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

      On 6/7/2019 at 12:49 PM, Tom Froemming said:
    I'm considering making some changes to these game recaps and would love some feedback if anybody's interested in helping out with some market research :)

     

    -Do you enjoy the win expectancy charts?

    I think they're cool, but for a lot of games they don't add a whole lot of flavor. I get the sense that most readers just gloss right over them the majority of the time, so I'm thinking about ditching them.

     

    -Is there any important information we're missing?

    I have some ideas for small, simple things to add, but I'm curious if any of you have any ideas. Is there something you're constantly having to look up elsewhere that could easily be included in these?

     

    Thanks for reading everybody, and thanks to Andrew and all the new writers for joining in on the fun. 

     

    Also, Happy Anniversary! Two years ago today, I did my first game recap here. It was ... different :)

     

    I’m with Chief... love the old old school feel of the box score:).

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    ashbury

    ashbury 48,546

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I like the WPA chart, for games I didn't get to watch. I can get a lot from a box score and a line score, and a 5-run fourth obviously will turn many a game - but sometimes a 0 in the linescore will contain a ton of drama, and WPA can show that. Instead of perusing an entire PbP recording, the chart tells me which part of the game to look at in detail.

     

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    MN_ExPat

    MN_ExPat 1,845

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

      On 6/7/2019 at 11:26 PM, diehardtwinsfan said:

    Just sayin, but I'm not Chief.

    Ok, that really clears up a lot of things for me... waaaay confused ;)

     

    I actually was citing Chief on that response, but my apologies for not seeing yours and not including you in the citation. :)

     

    I shall now go and do penance by forcing myself to sing "Go Cubs Go" until my wife tells me to zip it and mutters to herself that she actually has three children and not two. 

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    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

      On 6/8/2019 at 1:16 AM, MN_ExPat said:

    Ok, that really clears up a lot of things for me... waaaay confused ;)

     

    I actually was citing Chief on that response, but my apologies for not seeing yours and not including you in the citation. :)

     

    I shall now go and do penance by forcing myself to sing "Go Cubs Go" until my wife tells me to zip it and mutters to herself that she actually has three children and not two. 

    oof.. go cubs go?  

     

    If I'm doing self penance, I think I'd rather wear a hair shirt.

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