MIN 2, BOS 1: Gibby the Great

It would be so totally foolish to trade Gibson. To all the Gibson doubters.... I say it for him...... "Bite Me."

 

I was a Gibson believer and apologist for a time. But even I began to sour in 2017 at one point.

 

I have said this time and again, but I will repeat myself yet another time. Virtually everyone wanted him up early in 2013 because he was pitching well in the minors despite it being his first season back from TJ surgery. He didn't look good when he came up. In 2014, he had a really solid first full season and missed rookie status by an inning and 1/3. Despite a worse W-L record, his 2015 was better in every category across the board. He stunk in 2016, as did the entire team. And the first half of 2017 was no better, to be sure.

 

The perception of Gibson is NOT based on his 2014 or 2015 seasons, it's based on hope when he was selected and potential/hope to be a front line starter for a pitching starved team. What we are seeing is the maturation of a quality arm who actually pitched well his first couple of seasons, then hit a wall, for whatever reason, and then figured it out.

 

This is no SSS folks. He's been pitching like this since late July last season. I wrote an article about a month ago how Berrios may be the budding ACE of the staff, but how close Gibson was to joining him as a top of the rotation starter.

 

Did you watch the game? I missed most of it. But I caught the last few innings. I was pumped after the first out in the 8th when he asked for the ball to keep going.

 

To trade this guy would be a huge mistake! No matter how good Romero may be...and he could potentially be the Twins 1-3 starter by mid season 2019...Berrios and Gibson are our 1-2 starters to begin 2019. And I feel really good about that!

One thing I've always liked about Gibson is that he can shut down anybody anywhere when he's good. He doesn't seem to freak out that we are playing Boston in Fenway, just like he didn't freak out when he shut down the Yankees earlier in the year in Yankee Stadium. Sure, he can also be the guy who loses on occasion to the KC Royals, but it does give the team some confidence that a team like Boston can be beat in their own backyard.

Which Gibson, 13'-17' or 2018? 

 

I agree that whatever the Twins get back in a trade won't have near the impact in 19' that Gibson would if he builds off of this season, but you're also taking a pretty serious leap of faith that this is the pitcher Gibson is going to be for the next 1.4 years.

 

Not being argumentative nor mean, but look up the numbers.

 

He missed a season to TJ surgery. 2013 was his first season back, and he kinda stunk when promoted to finish the year. As a rookie, probably getting tired, his numbers were still better than Berrios's initial introduction.

 

As I just re-stated in this same thread, look at his first two full years. Then look at the growth and transformation we are seeing. I'd prefer 3 years, but could deal with 4. He's only 30yo. He and Berrios, along with Romero and a couple others, could lead this staff for the next few years.

 

If I'm another team, I'm asking about Gibson. If I'm the Twins, I hang up the phone.

 

Definitely a Gibson doubter. Diversity is a great thing.

You watched him pitch the last few years right? There's plenty of reason to doubt...

 

I'm happy that he's throwing well this season at 31, but at the very least the Twins should wait until the end of next season to make any sort of decision on bringing him back. This team just sold a high draft pick to get out from under 1.5 seasons of a rushed extension, I'd prefer that mistake wasn't repeated. 

 

Not being argumentative nor mean, but look up the numbers. He missed a season to TJ surgery. 2013 was his first season back, and he kinda stunk when promoted to finish the year. As a rookie, probably getting tired, his numbers were still better than Berrios's initial introduction. As I just re-stated in this same thread, look at his first two full years. Then look at the growth and transformation we are seeing. I'd prefer 3 years, but could deal with 4. He's only 30yo. He and Berrios, along with Romero and a couple others, could lead this staff for the next few years. If I'm another team, I'm asking about Gibson. If I'm the Twins, I hang up the phone.

I'm not sure what's accomplished by comparing Berrios' debut to Gibson's. Gibson may have had a less rocky intro but those two aren't even in the same stratosphere in terms of where they went from that point. 

 

I'm definitely in favor of looking up the numbers, but shouldn't we be including all of them? If we're blaming his early struggles on recovery, fatigue, and being a rookie then what's the explanation for how awful he was in 16' and 17'? You're disregarding a lot of really bad pitching to say that 15' + this season + a handful of starts at the end of last year are the "real," Gibson, and that's who he'll be going forward.

 

That's kind of why I'm making the point about being cautious with an extension, especially when they can wait at least another year. There's no f****** way I'm handing Gibson an extension that ends at age 35.  

 

 

His slider was really biting tonight.

I don’t get why a gamethread after a fantastic victory has turned into a lengthy trade / quality debate over Kyle Gibson. But it has, so I will say this: I would hate for the Twins to trade Gibson, and think it would be a terrible move for the organization, regardless of where they are, what they need, and what the return is. The Twins have weathered a lot of rough history with Gibson, and they are now reaping the rewards of that perserverence. Let’s just enjoy the great performance by Gibson - four straight, and only five under .500.

 

You watched him pitch the last few years right? There's plenty of reason to doubt...

 

I'm happy that he's throwing well this season at 31, but at the very least the Twins should wait until the end of next season to make any sort of decision on bringing him back. This team just sold a high draft pick to get out from under 1.5 seasons of a rushed extension, I'd prefer that mistake wasn't repeated. 

 

Yup. I have watched him his whole Twins' career, of course. I have always liked him, and was disheartened by his struggles. Jake Arrieta didn't look that good for the first 4 years. Then he took off, at 28 years old, and Baltimore had missed out, after he was cultured in their system. Sure, there is a list of pitchers that failed, and never got better, and it never clicked, and I am not saying he is a Jake Arrieta. But I like home grown players, and I have always had faith that he would get there. And now he has. To say, when Arrieta went 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA in 156.2 innings in 2014, "You watched him pitch the last few years right? There's plenty of reason to doubt..." would have been a valid way to look at it, granted. He was way worse than Gibson's worst. But it happens. Players do get better, and at different ages. Justin Turner is another example, albeit not a pitcher. I like betting on a player that has come of age at the MLB level, much more than a prospect.

 

Gibson lost a good year, and more, really, as one comes back from TJ, so his age could be considered a comparable and a year less (Arietta has had no TJ), and being in your 31st year does not make one 31, and he is, by most, still considered to be 30, and won't be 31 until October 23rd, and next year will be his 31 year old season. (One poster has even called him 32 on this thread, and someone that the turnaround started in September, and not July! No need to not be accurate). But that is all somewhat meaningless, really. I hope he is a life long Twin, and we get the best he will and has become. I feel prospects are a much worse bet, than Gibson being a star pitcher for the next several years. 

Edited July 27, 2018 by h2oface

Because he's signed for one more year. It really depends on if you think they are contenders next year or not.

If you gut your team every year you think your not a contender aren't you just starting over all the time? You've got to build with something and in bball there is no better building block than an established starter.

Yup. I have watched him his whole Twins' career, of course. I have always liked him, and was disheartened by his struggles. Jake Arrieta didn't look that good for the first 4 years. Then he took off, at 28 years old, and Baltimore had missed out, after he was cultured in their system. Sure, there is a list of pitchers that failed, and never got better, and it never clicked, and I am not saying he is a Jake Arrieta. But I like home grown players, and I have always had faith that he would get there. And now he has. To say, when Arrieta went 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA in 156.2 innings in 2014, "You watched him pitch the last few years right? There's plenty of reason to doubt..." would have been a valid way to look at it, granted. He was way worse than Gibson's worst. But it happens. Players do get better, and at different ages. Justin Turner is another example, albeit not a pitcher. I like betting on a player that has come of age at the MLB level, much more than a prospect.

 

Gibson lost a good year, and more, really, as one comes back from TJ, so his age could be considered a comparable and a year less (Arietta has had no TJ), and being in your 31st year does not make one 31, and he is, by most, still considered to be 30, and won't be 31 until October 23rd, and next year will be his 31 year old season. But that is all somewhat meaningless, really. I hope he is a life long Twin, and we get the best he will and has become. I feel prospects are a much worse bet, than Gibson being a star pitcher for the next several years.

Great post. Great analogy with Arrieta. I always think of Cliff Lee, who got sent down to the minors in his late 20s.

If Gibson was a normally aged pitcher at the end of his team control I'd probably agree with you.  But an extension to a 32 year old is a major gamble right from the outset, regardless of who they are.

 

So, sure, there is value in keeping him, but I wouldn't let that stop me from aggressively shopping him.

I would bet Gibby is a late bloomer and has at least a few years of prime ball ahead unless of course Molly grinds him down. We need five starters to fill a team but at least seven to get through the year. If we keep Gibby were have 2.5 you can count on for next year. Romero is my half. With how much this team has struggled too fill out a rotation and all the retreads we have had the pleasure of watching i don't understand a twins fan suggesting we get rid of a talented homegrown guy like Gibby. Plus rite now the guy is fun to watch. Lance Lynn, Ricky Nolasco, Hector Santiago, Sam Deduno, Scott diamond... dude I have a bad memory but I could keep going on and on.

 

Great post. Great analogy with Arrieta. I always think of Cliff Lee, who got sent down to the minors in his late 20s.

 

I forgot about Lee. Not a bad pitcher in his 30's. 

You watched him pitch the last few years right? There's plenty of reason to doubt...

 

I'm happy that he's throwing well this season at 31, but at the very least the Twins should wait until the end of next season to make any sort of decision on bringing him back. This team just sold a high draft pick to get out from under 1.5 seasons of a rushed extension, I'd prefer that mistake wasn't repeated.

 

I think reason the extension to Hughes is considered rushed is the team still had what two more years of control on a super team friendly deal. I'm not sure I would extend Gibby this year I would wait to see him continue this next year but then aggressively extend him by a year from now. I definitely don't trade him.

Trading one starting pitcher is gutting the team? One of the best trade chips is an established starter.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to them keeping him, but I do think they should dangle him to see who bites. If they don't hear anything that interests them, there's no need to deal him. I want to see how he does next season before I give him an extension, but I'm not taking any options to improve this team off the table. The Twins are in a pretty decent spot regarding Gibson. Either teams meet their demands for a trade or the Twins keep him. That's a win/win situation.

The reference to gutting the team would be because those that suggest trading Gibby tend to want to move Dozier, Santana, Escobar, Lynn, Odorizzi, Duke, Rodney, Reed,Kepler etc. Even hear Rosie mentioned. A long list. I'm not against moving many of the minor bits but I don't let go of Gibson unless the return is a fleecing of a desperate contender reminding me of the Pierzinski deal. One thing that would be different is then the twins were trading from a position of strength having mauer behind Pierzinski. I would hang on too Kepler, Escobar and Rosie unless similarly impressed.

 

Which Gibson, 13'-17' or 2018? 

 

I agree that whatever the Twins get back in a trade won't have near the impact in 19' that Gibson would if he builds off of this season, but you're also taking a pretty serious leap of faith that this is the pitcher Gibson is going to be for the next 1.4 years. 

He was good in 2015.

 

Agreed, I don't see them as contender's next year, so I would at least listen to a trade.  Contending next year is going to take a 180 from this season.  I don't see it, especially if the payroll goes back down.  

IMO if the Twins aren't considered a contender in 2019, then they won't be in 2020 and only maybe in in 2021, and if that is what the front office thinks, then they should try to trade EVERYBODY on the team. Including Berrios and Rosario because they will never return more than now.

No one wants to trade Gibson because they are a "hater", that's preposterous. Seriously.

 

He's 31 at the end of the year, 32 by the end of his team control. He's not a long-term asset, so it's worthwhile to see what long-term assets he might yield in a trade.

Max Scherzer is 34. Justin Verlander is 35. Both are top ten bWAR for pitchers in 2018. Pitchers don’t lose it as fast as position players. This is well known. Especially guys that aren’t overly reliant on velocity. Gibson can easily maintain his effectiveness for 4-5 more years. Edited July 27, 2018 by yarnivek1972

Was this the best start for Gibson in his career?  I believe, although not certain, he has a shutout or two along the way.  But against this lineup, 8 inning with 1 run just may be his best night...ever.

 

As for trading him, why?  If the Twins are going to compete next year or the year or two after, they need top of the line pitching.  Why would you ever trade one of the best.  And yes, this year Gibson is one of the best (top 10 or 15 in baseball).

I think reason the extension to Hughes is considered rushed is the team still had what two more years of control on a super team friendly deal. I'm not sure I would extend Gibby this year I would wait to see him continue this next year but then aggressively extend him by a year from now. I definitely don't trade him.

Twins don't really ever talk contracts mid season. And players rarely sign extensions 2 months from free agency. An extension happens this of season or never. He's a number 1 pick with serious success in the minors who struggles as a sinker pitcher in the launch angle revolution but reinvented himself as a strike out guy. He's got 2 pitches that are among baseballs most swung and missed. Hint: neither are the 2 seamer he once relied on.

 

It is doubtful he'll be viewed as 1 of baseball's best starters in terms of return. I'd extend this off-season if it can be reasonably done. It's hard for me to imagine wining a playoff series in the next couple years without "good Gibby" playing a role.