MIN 11, DET 4: Bats Bust Out, Bullpen Shuts Out Detroit

End of the season, and most of us are in a "meh, who cares" attitude. But the truth is, we really do care. I have a few thoughts to toss out:

1] Odorizzi's season has been mediocre. Can he be better in 2019? Absolutely. Is he a decent/quality 5th SP. Yes, he is. Could his overall stuff and SO ability play up even better as a set up man and potential closer even? I believe it could, and I wish someone would make that move and convince him that he should make and embrace that move.

2] Why I he'll can't Duffey do what he did, and has shown he can do, more often? Scared as he'll We're going to let him go and he'll figure it out somewhere else and become a quality RP for someone else.

3] I want to believe in Austin so badly! His milb career says he can hit and produce. Since coming to the Twins, he hasn't hit the best, but we've seen the power and potential. Between his time in N.Y. and Minnesota, he has 17 HR in 233AB. 2018 is his first extended playing time at the ML level. I want to believe he's a really nice piece we acquired in trade. Someone,please, convince me one way or another.

4] Very disappointed to see Astudillo wasn't catching tonight until I saw the box and realised he was starting at 3B! See he went 3 for 5 and didn't see or hear the play, but heard Dan and Corey say be made a great defensive play. I am SO on the bandwagon for him being on the 40 man and being the 25th-26th man on the roster.

5] Vasquez, Reed and Curtiss each got a full IP? WOW!

I want to see Odorizzi used as part of a big trade to get that top young starter, Doc.  Include he along with one of the four young starters currently getting experience.  Toss in a good upper level prospect and get someone that can be a big part of the staff for many years.

Very glad to see Curtis have a clean inning. That strike 3 curve on the inside corner was a beautiful pitch.

And Goodrum is 2-9 so far with no real harm done. Maybe his ExTwins Curse is lifting.

Danger: Jinx Warning

1] Odorizzi's season has been mediocre. Can he be better in 2019? Absolutely. Is he a decent/quality 5th SP. Yes, he is. Could his overall stuff and SO ability play up even better as a set up man and potential closer even? I believe it could, and I wish someone would make that move and convince him that he should make and embrace that move.

 

But is a "decent" 5th SP worth about $8M that he's going to get in arbitration? They can afford it, but I feel like they could do better. I think we have enough 5th starters and enough depth, so I'd like to see if they can upgrade at one of those spots. 

 

3] I want to believe in Austin so badly! His milb career says he can hit and produce. Since coming to the Twins, he hasn't hit the best, but we've seen the power and potential. Between his time in N.Y. and Minnesota, he has 17 HR in 233AB. 2018 is his first extended playing time at the ML level. I want to believe he's a really nice piece we acquired in trade. Someone,please, convince me one way or another.

He looks like the type of guy who will hit .220-230 with 30-35 HRs a season if he gets enough PAs. It depends if that's the type of guy you're looking for - it'd be quite the departure from Mauer's opposite approach.

Odorizzi's 2018 season FIP: 4.19.  Gibson's: 4.18.  Both gave us 2.6 fWAR. So many gush over Gibson's season (saying he's turned the corner) and lament Odorizzi's season.

Odorizzi's 2018 season FIP: 4.19. Gibson's: 4.18. Both gave us 2.6 fWAR. So many gush over Gibson's season (saying he's turned the corner) and lament Odorizzi's season.

In one fewer start Gibby has 191 innings vs Odo at 164. About an inning a start. 3.6 vs 1.5 war. I would say more was expected of Odo which could impact that impression.

In one fewer start Gibby has 191 innings vs Odo at 164. About an inning a start. 3.6 vs 1.5 war. I would say more was expected of Odo which could impact that impression.

Yeah, IP is included in fWAR. And they were worth the same fWAR.

But yeah, no doubt Gibson helped the bullpen by pitching an inning more a game, but that doesn't change the dramatic difference in the perceptions of their respective seasons.  Gushing over own, slamming the other.  Not much difference overall, in how they performed on the mound.

And as far as expectations of Odorizzi, this is his 2nd best season ever. He was worth 3 times what he got paid this year. What were people expecting and how realistic were expectations?

The basic point I was trying to make was that it's not like all his numbers trended in the wrong direction this season.

 

I suppose a better way of doing that would be to say he shaved his FIP down from 5.43 in 2017 to 4.19 this season or that he went from being exactly replacement level per FanGraphs last year to a 2.6 WAR player this year. 

Tom:

This clarification is helpful.  Spending three paragraphs in your update singing the praises of our SPs striking out so many guys this year is hollow given the disaster that this season has turned out to be.

Disclaimer - I'm not a big K/9 stat fan (can you tell :-))

Finally - thanks to you and ALL the T.D. writers for your tireless efforts again this season.  I thoroughly enjoy the daily updates and the articles/blogs/forums.

bWAR doesn't concur, 1.6 vs 3.5. And perhaps it's because Odorizzi put up similar FIP but in 26 fewer innings across 32 starts (actually 1 more start than Gibby). Odo puts approximately an extra inning of burden on the bullpen. That's really quite a differential in value delivered. No lamentation required.

bWAR uses runs allowed (earned and unearned), fWAR uses FIP.  There's your main difference.

You don't think a 15+% greater workload plays a part in a pitcher's value?

Some, but not the one that puts that much difference in WAR calculations.  fWAR takes into account IP difference in it's calculations.

Yeah, IP is included in fWAR. And they were worth the same fWAR.

 

But yeah, no doubt Gibson helped the bullpen by pitching an inning more a game, but that doesn't change the dramatic difference in the perceptions of their respective seasons.  Gushing over own, slamming the other.  Not much difference overall, in how they performed on the mound.

 

And as far as expectations of Odorizzi, this is his 2nd best season ever. He was worth 3 times what he got paid this year. What were people expecting and how realistic were expectations?

3 times what he was paid? So Odorizzi's season was worth $18.9M? I've never liked the WAR to $$ model, if that's the one you're using.

The final stats aren't that far off from what I was thinking, but the number of short starts and 20+ pitch innings from this guy were brutal IMO. He's part of the reason why the bullpen had to throw more innings, leading to the over-usage of several relievers.

WAR = [[([(League “FIP” – “FIP”) / Pitcher Specific Runs Per Win] + Replacement Level) * (IP/9)] * Leverage Multiplier for Relievers] + League Correction

 

When FIP is about the same for two starters, and the innings pitched are very different, I don't quite see how the basic formula (above) would reach the conclusion of equal WAR. So it must be somewhere down in the arcana of the full formula, which is beyond my pay grade and mostly wouldn't differ for two teammates. I didn't spot what that would be. Maybe something screwy in the infield fly count.