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  • MIN 1, HOU 0: Let’s Go Crazy


    Tom Froemming

    All across Twins Territory, fans seem to be doing their best to contain their excitement. Their mantra has been it’s only April, it’s only the Orioles, we still don’t know much about this Twins team.

    That all could change over the course of this week. A big performance against the Astros and the Yankees would make it difficult for even the most reserved Midwesterner to temper excitement. The Twins got things off to a great start Monday evening.

    Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score

    Odorizzi: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 66.3% strikes

    Home Runs: Adrianza (1)

    Multi-Hit Games: None

    WPA of +0.1: Odorizzi .473, Parker .170, Rogers .124, Adrianza .123

    WPA of -0.1: Rosario -.100

    Win429.png

    (chart via FanGraphs)

    There are certain things, even in the early going, that can give you certain vibes as a fan that your team may be on the verge of something special. Certain events just hit you and let those “this is our year” vibes to start flowing.

    Jake Odorizzi and the Twins bullpen shutting out the Houston Astros lineup would be one of those things. Ehire Adrianza hitting a home run off Justin Verlander for the only run of a game would be another one. Both those things happened tonight.

    It took Odorizzi just 86 pitches to get through seven innings. That’s a solid mark for any pitcher, but Odo isn’t exactly known for his efficiency. He got 13 swinging strikes on those 86 pitches, improving upon the career-high rate he carried into this outing. Odorizzi has gotten swinging strikes on 13% of his pitches this year. Last season, only nine qualified starters had a swinging strike rate above 13%, and Odorizzi was at 10.2%.

    Not surprisingly, the strikeout rates are also encouraging for Odorizzi in the early going of this season. He's now struck out exactly a quarter of the batters he's faced so far. That would represent a career high and a nice boost from his 22.8 K% from last year.

    Odorizzi needed a grand total of just 21 pitches to get through the third through fifth innings. He ran into trouble in the sixth, issuing a one-out walk followed by a single. We’ve seen him unravel in similar situations before, but he struck out both Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel to end the threat.

    While Odorizzi was cruising, Justin Verlander was also carving up the Twins. But there was a different look to the lineup tonight. They entered this game with a league-low 3.76 pitches per plate appearances. Tonight, they had a batter work an at-bat of six pitches or more in each of Verlander’s six innings. The longest of those was a 10-pitch walk for Max Kepler to lead off the first inning. Eddie Rosario had a nine-pitch at-bat that ended in a strikeout, and one of those longer plate appearances produced the game’s only run.

    In the third inning, Ehire Adrianza fell behind Verlander 1-2. He fouled off the fourth pitch to extend the at-bat, then watched two balls go by. Ehire deposited pitch No. 7 into the stands.

    https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1123023350429732864

    Verlander was nasty, but all that work resulted in him needing 100 pitches to get through six innings. He turned things over to the bullpen at that point. Unfortunately, there’s not much of a drop off. The Houston bullpen held the Twins scoreless for two innings.

    Taylor Rogers looked incredibly nasty in a scoreless eighth inning before Blake Parker took care of business in the ninth. Parker gave up a leadoff single, but managed to induce a double play ball from the next batter.

    Postgame With Baldelli

    https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1123055528349802496

    Bullpen Usage

    Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

    Bullpen429.png

    Next Three Games

    Tue vs. HOU, 6:40 pm CT (Pineda-Cole)

    Wed vs. HOU, 7:10 pm CT (Perez-McHugh)

    Thu vs. HOU, 12:10 pm CT (Berrios-Peacock)

    Last Game

    MIN 4, BAL 1: Kepler Sets Tone, Gibby Brings It Home

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    I hate to pour cold water on this but:  A first place team playing another great team and it only draws 12,000 fans.  This is what led to Cleveland's garage sale.

     

    When we (myself included) complain about cheap ownership, last night's attendance should be kept in mind.

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    I hate to pour cold water on this but:  A first place team playing another great team and it only draws 12,000 fans.  This is what led to Cleveland's garage sale.

     

    When we (myself included) complain about cheap ownership, last night's attendance should be kept in mind.

     

    12,000 fans is what happens when you don't produce for many seasons and fail to retain season ticket holders. Even with the excitement that is building with the current team, it may take awhile to recapture your audience. 

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    1-0. This is one of those games you look back near the end of the year and remember with fondness.

    Or, to put it another way, it is definitely 1 of the 42 in the 60-60-42 rule. More importantly one of the 30 wins of those 42 needed to get into the playoffs. That is called stealing one. Beauty of Jake is that I don't think he will take the mound next time out expecting to throw goose eggs every inning. He will just pitch a professional game as long as he can like he always does.

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    12,000 fans is what happens when you don't produce for many seasons and fail to retain season ticket holders. Even with the excitement that is building with the current team, it may take awhile to recapture your audience. 

    That and it was a chilly night game on a Monday. Not exactly a prime outdoor MPLS viewing situation.

     

    If they keep winning once school gets out and the weather warms up I can see Target Field starting to fill up more.

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    There's certainly one 1-0 game Twins fans remember going on three decades now.

    Ah yes, who can forget it? The walk off hit scoring Dan Gladden in extra innings... sealing the win for the legendary Gary Wayne... pulling us within 2 games of 6th place... so many memories to choose from!

     

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN199009190.shtml

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    Kepler's 10-pitch opening at-bat is, I think, what Baldelli likes about having him bat lead-off. Sure, he's capable of depositing a first-pitch of the game over the wall, he looks comfortable in the role. A 9-pitch at-bat for Rosario also shows how much he has matured. Now if some of that new-found patience at the plate could rub off on Astudillo, oh my!

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    Obviously, but we're probably not going to finish with 312 HR for the season like our current pace suggests. I think the poster is saying that eventually we'll need to find other ways to score if we want to maintain this winning percentage -- but I think we should be capable of doing that. Our BB% is low, but so is our K%, and we're not getting any BABIP luck right now either.

    This offense is constructed as a feast or famine type. Lots of homerun power. Lots of strikeouts. Other than Astudillo, the best career obp on the roster coming into 2019 belonged to Nelson Cruz, and it was below .350. After that is Polanco, sub .333. Without HR this team is going to have an extremely difficult time scoring.

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    This offense is constructed as a feast or famine type. Lots of homerun power. Lots of strikeouts. Other than Astudillo, the best career obp on the roster coming into 2019 belonged to Nelson Cruz, and it was below .350. After that is Polanco, sub .333. Without HR this team is going to have an extremely difficult time scoring.

    Actually, not that many strikeouts, relative to other teams. We've got the 3rd lowest K% in baseball. Polanco, Rosario, and Kepler all project as better than average in K%. (Astudillo too, obviously!) Cruz, Schoop, Cron, and Marwin are all right around average. Garver, Castro, and Buxton project as worse than average, but not egregiously so. Sano will get his K's, I am sure, but it's not necessarily a big problem for this club.

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    A 1-0 pitcher's duel may be boring for some casual baseball fans who just want to watch homeruns... for someone who works many games at Target Field, a 2 hour-15 minute game is wonderful (particularly when the Twins win.)

     

    Like the judge that wants the case over, a civil case that the plaintiff waited 2 years to get his day. Some want it to end, and some want the full deal.

     

    Fans come from miles to see games, have planned and anticipated the day for months. They come early as they can to watch the field dressed, batting practice, and maybe see their favorite close up, get an autograph, and a bobblehead, and find out where the players will exit after the showers, and wait there too to see them and get a chance to extend the special experience. It might be a young kids first MLB baseball game, something that will make a new fan for life. I get that those that might work the games like it ending quickly, but not me, never me. I think extra innings is the greatest thing that can happen. Drama, more baseball.... I get to be there longer. But I get where you are coming from..... I guess.

     

    I loved this game. Time is no issue. Pitcher's duel, or explosive offense.... I love the drama of a close one, a comeback, a shutout, and the comfort of a blowout. Love love love.

    Edited by h2oface
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    Time of game was actually 2:31, although it started 30 minutes earlier than usual (6:40) so it probably felt shorter.

     

    Loved the game last night (especially the result), but it sort of highlights the modern pace of play / game length problem, from my perspective. No replay challenges, no mid-inning pitching changes, lots of strikes, very few baserunners (Astros just 6 batters over the minimum, Twins 5), home team didn't bat in the bottom of the ninth -- absolute perfect conditions for the quickest game reasonably possible -- -yet the game still took 2:31.

     

    That's the baseline for why the average game is 3:04 and can feel like it's dragging at times -- because the baseline pace/time is already stretched so far, it can't really tolerate any further stretching. And that's why I'd love to finally see a pitch clock in MLB, rather than a 3 batter minimum or other more complicated changes. If we could pull this baseline down to 2:15, I think the average game would feel a lot crisper (and those 7:10 game starts would end by 10:00 on average). Pull the baseline down to 2:00 and that would be even better, of course, but I'll take what I can get.

     

    Sadly, it seems like the pitch clock is just a negotiating tool between MLB/MLBPA, rather than a likely implementation, at this point.

     

    I love baseball so much, I want it to be over. I get it, but baseball has never been about making it last less time to me. I love getting it right, and not allowing umpire errors (errors they really didn't want to make anyway, but did and do), but I despise changes that are all about time, and only about time.

     

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    This offense is constructed as a feast or famine type. Lots of homerun power. Lots of strikeouts. Other than Astudillo, the best career obp on the roster coming into 2019 belonged to Nelson Cruz, and it was below .350. After that is Polanco, sub .333. Without HR this team is going to have an extremely difficult time scoring.

     

    Definitely constructed for the feast or famine, for sure. I am surprised that the Ks are not happening to that extent yet, and surprisingly almost the lowest in MLB! I sure hope it doesn't mean that it will swing way in the other direction to hit the average/expectation. The batters are also using a pretty low amout of pitches - 3.77/ plate appearance - but I can't find how that ranks. So they could work the count more, but I like swinging at the right pitch, no matter when it comes, way more than not swinging at the meat (Mauer) and then having to fight off pitches, and not great pitches to hit, with 2 strikes. Whatever is happening, is working. So I hope they don't try to fix it.

     

    So far, they have a middle of MLB (15/30) OBP at .328 as a team, and lead MLB in OPS (.835) and sluggng (.507), and are 29/30 MLB teams in Ks with only 190!

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    When Sano enters the lineup, he’ll quickly add to the K rate. Astudillo out for awhile will curve it up as well. Sano figures to take at bats away from pretty much everyone with Marwin presumably used as a fill in all over.

     

    Just think what could happen if Sano gets his Ks down!

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    A 1-0 pitcher's duel may be boring for some casual baseball fans who just want to watch homeruns... for someone who works many games at Target Field, a 2 hour-15 minute game is wonderful (particularly when the Twins win.)

     

    Yeah, scoring runs is fun... but games like this are intense... far more than a typical game. 

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    I agree 5-5 against the Astro's, Yankee's, and Blue Jays is good, but you got to beat the teams in the East to get respect and start to change the culture if you want to take the next step. Cleveland still has the best Starters in AL and Lindor is back. 

    You can't continue to win with only hitting HR. You got to manufacture runs when conditions dictate it. Good teams can do both, besides scoring 5 runs without hitting a HR, puts more pressure on the pitcher and defense. You have to be able to do both. I haven't seen a lot of " Small Ball". I like the winning, but sometimes you got to play the game smart late in the game. That is my point.

    I know I just hate all those home runs. NOT!

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    Yea what was up with that ump? At least he was consistently bad. 

     

    I never understand how consistently bad becomes OK. Seems like to be consistently bad or wrong is worse than wrong just some of the time. I get the perdictability factor, that one can now try to predict he will be wrong the same way over and over.... but wrong is wrong, and consistently wrong or bad....... I really hate that.

    Edited by h2oface
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