Miguel Sano: A Fading Superstar

The only way Sano is a similar level player to those two is if we suggest that defense and durability are meaningless.

Meh.  None of the 3 player important defensive positions.  Rosario grades as an extremely negative defender. Kepler actually does grade well especially with his ability to play CF in a pinch, so I might give you that.  Not sure any of the 3 are really enough of difference makers to push the needle in any way defensively, especially since Sano has made himself into something of an average or close to average defender at 3rd.

Sano and Rosario actually have the same fwar despite Sano playing about half the games largely due to Rosario's defensive ineptitude.  

I think that is a emotional bias reaction. It's penalizing Sano for developing earlier than the other two. To be fair, I know what you're trying to say is that you are criticizing him for not reaching his proverbial ceiling.

 

However, whatever way you slice it... the 3 are similar level of players (in a good way). You can't knock Sano for being that level of player and call for his head while also praising Rosario and Kepler for being that same level of player. That does not make any sense.

 

I don't think it's fair to say that it's an unwillingness to listen to coaches or an arrogance that he doesn't need to get better. I think that's a projection.

 

I hope Sano can figure out how to take some steps forward and find a higher level of play. I think he will if he can stay healthy for a consistent stretch of time. However, do not let emotional biases distract you from player value--emotional biases.

Any player can always get better. That he started out “better” simply indicates a higher level of natural talent. Here’s an extreme example: Jacque Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. Both came into the bigs with a great deal of natural talent and both did well pretty much from day one. But both continued to get better. Ken Griffey had otherworldly talent, but that didn’t stop him from getting better as he aged and gained experience. Jones had much less talent but he still got better and had himself a solid career.

This is Sano’s fifth season at the MLB level. I’m not really looking at his numbers from 2019 because he has half as many at bats as any other year. There’s literally no improvement offensively in any important category. His defense hasn’t gotten better. He consistently grades as considerably below average.

Some positions are more important than others, but they all matter.
You can't outlaw the opposing team from hitting it to right field.
I'll grant you Rosario, but Sano isn't even close to Kepler, IMO.
Durability matters, a lot, and it's a skill, IMO.

I have consistently acknowledged that the analysis earlier in this post and in my other comments and posts about Sano regard his production on the field when healthy.  It is 100% fair to criticize and question his ability to stay healthy. 

What is not fair, is the Twins fans who will make comments about Sano's production that are based in a biased reaction to a certain style of play instead of production to a team.

I would also argue to some extent that his injury concerns will price down his next contract compared to his actual production which would be good value.

Any player can always get better. That he started out “better” simply indicates a higher level of natural talent. Here’s an extreme example: Jacque Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. Both came into the bigs with a great deal of natural talent and both did well pretty much from day one. But both continued to get better. Ken Griffey had otherworldly talent, but that didn’t stop him from getting better as he aged and gained experience. Jones had much less talent but he still got better and had himself a solid career.

This is Sano’s fifth season at the MLB level. I’m not really looking at his numbers from 2019 because he has half as many at bats as any other year. There’s literally no improvement offensively in any important category. His defense hasn’t gotten better. He consistently grades as considerably below average.

He's graded averagely this year.  His defensive score, for whatever you take that is worth ~-0.2.  Rosario's is -6ish.  Other than 1 year, Sano has graded anywhere from just below average to average at 3B (above average his rookie year).  

I'm not sure it's fair to say that...it could mean that, but I think that discounts a lot of hard work and development done before the majors.  Sano may have simply reached the top of his skillset sooner... 

It could be that he's more naturally talented in some ways. Regardless, it's irrelevant when looking at how productive a player is now if it took him 5 years to get there or he was there from Day 1.  Either way, he is that player. The rest is an emotional reaction to a feeling that you have around a figurative word called "potential".    

Further, if we do want to say that Kepler/Rosario have topped out their ceiling while Sano has been at that level since Day 1 and has not topped out his...how great is it to have a Kepler/Rosario level hitter with the potential that he could be even better one day down the road if he ever puts it all together?  

He's graded averagely this year. His defensive score, for whatever you take that is worth ~-0.2. Rosario's is -6ish. Other than 1 year, Sano has graded anywhere from just below average to average at 3B (above average his rookie year).

 

I'm not sure it's fair to say that...it could mean that, but I think that discounts a lot of hard work and development done before the majors. Sano may have simply reached the top of his skillset sooner...

 

It could be that he's more naturally talented in some ways. Regardless, it's irrelevant when looking at how productive a player is now if it took him 5 years to get there or he was there from Day 1. Either way, he is that player. The rest is an emotional reaction to a feeling that you have around a figurative word called "potential".

 

Further, if we do want to say that Kepler/Rosario have topped out their ceiling while Sano has been at that level since Day 1 and has not topped out his...how great is it to have a Kepler/Rosario level hitter with the potential that he could be even better one day down the road if he ever puts it all together?

You are welcome to that opinion, but I don’t buy it. IMO, there is no such thing as someone that can’t get better at their job. Could it be that injuries have hampered his development? Certainly. But that is part of who he is. It can’t be ignored. It makes him considerably less valuable if he can’t even play 100 games per year in the field. Something he has yet to do at the MLB level and something he likely won’t do this year either. That’s a problem. Particularly in an era of 12 man pitching staffs.

While I would never say Sano refuses to listen to coaches or is some kind of stubborn malcontent, as a hitter his pure talent exceeds both Kepler and Rosario.

 

And that's the problem. Rosario overcame his pinwheel nature a bit and became a very good hitter. He's also athletic enough that his pretty good hitting makes him a solid left fielder.

 

Kepler is a pure athlete but not the pure hitter Sano was in the minors. He has rounded out his game to become a very good player overall.

 

Then we loop back to Sano. A guy with an amazing eye at the plate, jaw-dropping strength, and underwhelming results at the MLB level compared to his MiLB numbers. Not only does he fail to match the defensive athleticism of Rosario and Kepler, but he's not even exceeding them in hitting. He absolutely mashed in the minors to a level neither Kepler nor Rosario could come close to doing. Yet both of those players have surpassed Sano as not only MLB players but as MLB hitters.

 

To quote Letterkenny, Sano needs to "figure it out". And that's not me ripping the guy, it's just saying that he's underperforming his amazing talent and ability.

Amazing eye at the plate? Don’t think so but there are signs of improvement overall in the last month

Until he learns to hit a good slider he is a incomplete player with gaping holes that can easily be exploited.

Have you ever tried to hit a "good slider?" Most MLB hitters cannot. That said, I agree with much of what you've been posting and think that Twins fans tend to want to believe every player will be great.

The poster claimed the team touted Sano as the next Cabrera or Thomas.

A scout saying 16 year old Sano "reminded" him of Cabrera is light years away from that.

If it was said once, it’s pretty likely that it was said again.

The article is 180 degrees in the wrong direction.  Sano is starting to hit.  I just think the lineup would be better with a better situational hitter in his place and a better glove in the field.  I'm hoping the Twins could include in in a trade to acquire a big time frontline starter.  There was a lot of debate weather Boyd and Greene would be worth giving up Lewis or Kiriloff and A LOT of other quality.  I say no.  If I'm giving up one of Lewis, Kiriloff or Graterol I'm going for a combo of Thor/Edwin Diaz or Bauer/Hand.  I don't want rentals like Mad-Bum and Will Smith.  I would be willing to part with someone like Graterol, Rooker, Nick Gordon and another decent prospect for either combo I previously mentioned.  The Mets are a mess.  They spent a ton of $$ bringing in Wilson Ramos and he's so poor behind the plate Thor and deGrom are done pitching to him.  Diaz is a mess because he can't throw his slider in the dirt with men on base if Ramos is catching.  A better situation would do wonders for each.  Bauer/Hand would also be outstanding.  I don't want half-measures from our front office this deadline.  i want a bold move that strenthens us this year and for a couple after that.

This is lifted from Michael Rand's piece on StarTribune.com:

"Since that dismal 0-for-7 game against Tampa Bay on June 27 that had people ready to give up on him again, Sano is hitting .348 with an OPS above 1.100. He’s walked eight times and struck out 16 times in 55 plate appearances — far more acceptable numbers — to go with four home runs."

It seems that he probably just needed to shake off the rust. No spring training, an essentially lost 2018 season due to recovery from surgery, etc etc etc. I think everyone who is paying attention has noticed the quality of his at-bats has improved markedly, especially pitch recognition. Does he take every breaking ball out of the zone? Of course not. Nobody does, not even Arraez. (Or Mauer.) But I think he's evolving just fine and I hope Rocco plugs him in at third base (and higher in the batting order) as often as is feasible.

This is lifted from Michael Rand's piece on StarTribune.com:

 

"Since that dismal 0-for-7 game against Tampa Bay on June 27 that had people ready to give up on him again, Sano is hitting .348 with an OPS above 1.100. He’s walked eight times and struck out 16 times in 55 plate appearances — far more acceptable numbers — to go with four home runs."

 

It seems that he probably just needed to shake off the rust. No spring training, an essentially lost 2018 season due to recovery from surgery, etc etc etc. I think everyone who is paying attention has noticed the quality of his at-bats has improved markedly, especially pitch recognition. Does he take every breaking ball out of the zone? Of course not. Nobody does, not even Arraez. (Or Mauer.) But I think he's evolving just fine and I hope Rocco plugs him in at third base (and higher in the batting order) as often as is feasible.

He had a brief period of great play, but in the last 6 games he is 4 for 17, 1 2b, 3 BB, 8 K. Oh, and 3 errors.

I like to come back to this article and just chuckle from time to time

Miguel Sano per 162 game pace:

.241/.342/.895 

108 runs - 34 2B - 3 3B - 49 HRs - 105 RBIs 

Miguel Sano per 162 game pace:

 

.241/.342/.895 

 

108 runs - 34 2B - 3 3B - 49 HRs - 105 RBIs 

Yeah ... this article :    Not aging well at all

The article wasn't well received when it was first posted. I don't see the need to keep rehashing it. It's good to see Sano on a better career path. Hopefully, he can maintain his current trajectory.