Maybe the Twins Bullpen is Actually Good?

A bullpen always looks good if you're getting 5-7 innings from your starters.

Maybe not always, but you make a good point. The difference between bad and good is often the difference between overworked and rested.

The only issue of concern to me about O’Rourke is that he has been walking too many LHB. He’s walked 14 of 83 LHB faced in 2019. That’s at least double what it should be. LHB don’t hit him well at all. That’s at AAA and MLB over the last 3 years.

But I don’t think the Twins would have picked up O’Rourke to be AAA fill. Plenty of pitchers were DFA in July/early August. You pick up O’Rourke to fill a need.

Romo's been pretty good. Gotta admit that something about him throwing in those 80 MPH frisbees makes me very nervous. Can't argue with results though!

Good is about right. Not great. There are a lot of solid pieces (Rogers, Dyson, Romo, Duffey, May), and everyone seems to be going relatively well right now.

There isn’t a run of consistently dominant guys, like you see at the back-end of the Yankees bullpen. With Chapman, Britton, Ottavino, Kahnle, and once healthy Betnances, lined up in the playoffs, they have a huge advantage over anyone. But, I think we’re just as good or better as any other serious playoff contender right now.

Romo's been pretty good. Gotta admit that something about him throwing in those 80 MPH frisbees makes me very nervous. Can't argue with results though!

I caught a guy in high school who had an unbelievable slider/slurve that looked similar to Romo’s in terms of directional movement. Great, great pitcher. Romo’s breaking ball is much better, no doubt, but it reminds of me of his and it was good enough to get plenty of attention from pro scouts. He eventually got drafted in some obscure round because he was giving up baseball after high school to play college football (great receiver as well).

It was very difficult to catch, let alone hit. Amazing that a ball can move like that. I saw on multiple occasions hitters totally bail, once or twice even going to the ground, only to have the pitch break over for a strike. Swings would look silly. I don’t recall anyone making solid contact. It looks like a fastball that takes a violent left turn about halfway to the plate, breaking what seemed like multiple feet. It almost seemed to change speeds suddenly mid-flight. A devastating pitch.

I picture Romo’s a perfect version of that pitch, breaking even more sharply. People just can’t hit that.

I am very happy with what I have seen from Sergio Romo.

Great veteran leadership for starters and the fact that he has all those WS rings.

I hope he would be interested in resigning with the Twins this winter.

I also love the interviews.

It’s good the Twins picked up Dyson and some of their internal options are working out. If things hold as they are now, the Twins can largely ignore the bullpen this offseason and focus on the rotation, which is a hot mess going into the 2020 season.

It's actually not that bad, when you think about it.  Berrios is a given, but I think Perez is likely to have his option picked up--$7.5M feels totally reasonable for a pitcher with 1.7 WAR this year (57th in baseball amongst pitchers with 130+ IP; he's also 55th in FIP and 52nd in xFIP), so long as he's your 4th/5th starter.  Extend the QO on Pineda (if you can, I'm not sure if he's eligible) or Odorizzi, and you're left with only 2 spots, one of which will be filled by Smeltzer/Thorpe/Dobnak/Poppen.  Is it a great rotation?  No--but you're not getting to great until either Graterol/Ober/Balazovic are succeeding in the Majors, or Jim Pohald opens the pocketbook.

Because of that, I have a sneaking suspicion Falvine doubles down on the lineup and looks for under the radar rotation moves, counting on trading for pieces in July, or prospect emergence to round the staff into playoff form.

With this bullpen, I'd normally still want some strong upgrades. But after what looked to be a bumper crop of free agent relievers nearly all turn to dust league-wide, yeah, I might consider the bullpen build going forward to be an built atypically.

While SSS and nothing yet proven, I have been pleased and amazed that virtually every single young arm brought up has performed quite well: Littell, Poppen, Stashak, Smeltzer, Thorpe and now Dobnak.

While I feel Smeltzer and Thorpe are still SP options, and good ones, there are a couple nice looking BP arms I just listed. Not throw Alcala in there and find me a LH and I'm feeling pretty happy about the 2020 pen at this point.

I'll take one of Smeltzer / Thorpe...probably Smeltzer for long relief, to eat innings with shockingly few runs allowed. Smelt is a little more Show-ready. Then I'll take one of Graterol / Alcala, probably Graterol because of that nifty heater and sub-2 ERA as a reliever in the minors. Gotta have a hot arm to blow away pesky batters in close games. 

Otherwise, I like this bullpen. They're not perfect, but they're all veterans, and I have seen each of them dominate. I was worried earlier about May and Duffey, but both men have made excellent adjustments after mid-season. Romo is a wizard, Dyson is a bully, and Rogers just blows hitters away like there's no chance. 

Hat tip to Littell, Dobnak, Stashak, and Poppen. Each of these guys could be a very good mlb pitcher. Littell impressed the most early on. Dobnak has the look of a long-term pro.

Dobnak has the look of a long-term pro.

It's the mustache, amirite?

I did want to add that Parker, Morin, and Magill have been solid with their new teams. Only Mejia is still struggling.

Did a little digging in regards to stats for RP on different AL teams. Found some interesting comparisons, though I don't know if this thread is going to die or not.

PITCHER ERA IP AVG WHIP BB SO

Britton 2.15 54 .188 1.21 31 45

Clippard 2.47 51 .176 .80 10 50

Harris 1.74 52 .209 1.01 13 52

Duffey 2.74 46 .209 1.11 14 60

May 3.20 51 .194 1.16 23 62

I chose Britton, Clippard and Harris rather deliberately. (Harris, from Houston, could be argued somewhat due to the injury to Pressly). I chose these 3 deliberately because they are on top AL contending teams with reputed strong bullpens. I also chose them, rather deliberately, as overall game appearances and IP marked each as the #3 option in their respective pens. It could be argued, back and forth, that pre and post acquisition of Dyson and Romo, that each of Duffey and May were/are the 3rd-5th option in the bullpen.

This not to state the Twins have a lethal pen. But I think it offers up additional perspective just how good Duffey and May have been this season.

EVERY RP will allow runs, have bad days, etc. And as has been quoted, it seems nobody is ever truly happy with their team's pen. But look how the Twins 3-5 options compare in this sample to other top teams proposed #3 BP option.

We should not judge how "good" anyone on the team is doing over the past couple of weeks considering the competition.

You will be lucky to get two thirds of a year from Pineda. Perez? So, basically the same rotation?

I mean, I'd like for the Twins to sign Cole, Keuchel, and Ryu, then make the Nationals a godfather offer for Scherzer, but I'd put the over/under on number of those pitchers in a Twins uniform next year at 0.5, and still pound the under.  The fixes to this rotation are in all likelihood going to come in the same way Cleveland built their rotation--through consistent incremental improvement driven by development of minor league talent and the odd shrewd trade for undervalued assets.

Ridiculous straw man argument. Seriously, no one has suggested this.

I didn't say anyone has suggested it.  I highlighted the fact that the Twins are unlikely to improve their rotation through expenditure (whether capital or prospect).  Even if they do, it will be only 1-2 spots, and not a wholesale rebuilding of the rotation.  That leaves only a couple of options;

1. Use largely the same rotation they had this year by picking up options/extending QO's/agreeing to new deals with their current starters
2. Put the burden on the members of the Rochester shuttle to man 2-3 spots in the rotation throughout the entire year
3. Dumpster dive and hope you can affect improvement in underperforming players

Of these 3 options, option 1 seems like the best balance between risk and reward--it has the lowest ceiling, but the highest floor.

All that being said, how would you propose fixing the rotation?