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  • Max Kepler Looks To Bonds For Hitting Inspiration


    Parker Hageman

    When Minnesota Twins outfielder Max Kepler breaks down his swing, the description veers away from the game’s growing infatuation of making contact under the ball.

    “I try and stay on top, get the bat head to stay through the zone as long as possible,” Kepler described. “Whenever I’m in doubt, I try to hit long ground balls to level my swing back out. I’m the complete opposite of what I hear people saying now days.”

    What are people saying now days? The increasing cage wisdom is to lift the ball, get underneath the pitch, elevate and celebrate, right? Shouldn’t he be working on getting that ball up and out of the park? Asked about that, Kepler just shakes his head.

    “Complete bogus,” he says. “I believe in what Barry Bonds says, that’s just stay on top and through the ball. Look what he did. That just proves everyone wrong.”

    Image courtesy of John Rieger - USA Today

    Twins Video

    Just down the line in the Twins’ clubhouse sat new acquisition Jason Castro. Castro, somewhat unknowingly, helped launch a revolution in the way professionals view hitting. It was watching Castro transform his swing from the bench that inspired teammate J.D. Martinez to look closer at a swing’s components.

    “I used to always think, ‘Hit down on the baseball.’ But then I realized that’s not what everyone else is doing,” Martinez told Fangraphs.com’s Eno Sarris. Martinez was injured with the Astros when he saw video of Castro’s revamped swing plane. That begat the search for video of other players’ swings. Ryan Braun, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera. All of the game’s top hitters were swinging (among other things) with a slight uppercut.

    “I received a little bit of instruction prior to that point of my career,” Castro said about the time he made his adjustments as an Astro. “Really having someone breaking down the swing and how the swing is supposed to work, from just a conceptual point on what you are trying to accomplish, I started to understand that a little more on a fundamental level.”

    For Castro, that fundamental understanding involved creating more lift.

    Creating lift and hitting the ball in the air is not new - dating back to instruction supplied by Ted Williams in his seminal book, “The Science of Hitting” -- but with the advanced studies involving StatCast data, baseball has a better understanding of the value created by optimal launch angles and exit velocity. With video, you can marry what that swing looks like and the results.

    The 2016 National League MVP Kris Bryant said that his father would install targets around the top of the batting cage in order to encourage young Kris to elevate the ball. The practice has certainly paid off for Bryant, who has one of the highest average launch angle in the game. It is the reason he has hit 39 home runs in 2016.

    On the American League side, Donaldson took to the MLB Network studios to spread his gospel of hitting. “If you are a 10 year old and your coach tells you to get on top of the ball,” the Blue Jays third baseman said, “tell him no.” Donaldson also recently tweeted a video of him taking short toss swings in the cage and trying to rifle the ball through the netting near the top. His caption? “Just say NO...to ground balls.”

    Kepler stresses that with his swing he is not trying to hit ground balls -- he’s going for line drives.

    “I’m not trying to hit ground balls. I’m trying to backspin the ball, trying to chop it,” he says as he demonstrates, firing his bottom hand in a diagonal line from his shoulder down at an imaginary pitch. “And the ball goes. It’s harder to catch a ball that’s back-spinning when you lift it. It just goes.”

    The chop part of his statement is the line that can make some hitting instructors cringe. Fangraphs.com’s Travis Sawchik recently profiled hitting coach Doug Latta and the players he has worked with, such as Marlon Byrd and Justin Turner, who reinvented their approach and careers by moving away from chopping wood. Other players have followed suit.

    Kepler’s process is interesting because, according to StatCast data, he hasn’t been producing a high-level launch angle rate -- at least not like the classic power hitting profiles like Bryant (19.8), Chris Carter (18.8), or even Josh Donaldson (12.9). His launch angle numbers fall behind even teammate Byron Buxton (14.3). Baseball Savant said that Kepler had an average launch angle of 8.7 degrees.

     

    output_o0yEaG.gif

    Baseball Savant launch angle GIF show the difference in contact put in play between Max Kepler, Miguel Sano and Wil Myers. Note the amount of contact by Kepler that falls below 0 degrees. That equals ground balls.

    What is also interesting is the hitter one place ahead of him on the launch angle rankings is the Padres’ Wil Myers (8.8). Why is that interesting? Myers seems to share the same affinity of staying on top of the ball as Kepler.

    “I try not to be one when I hit it but a lot of players will get up under the ball so they don’t hit into the ground,” Myers told MLB Network’s Harold Reynolds. “I feel like that creates bad habits and I like to stay off the tee and stay down through the ball.”

    The lackluster launch angle numbers aside, both Kepler (17) and Myers (28) have showed plenty of pop in their bats, thanks to solid exit velocity figures. Or, in simple ball guy terms, they hit the ball on the screws. In short, while Myers and Kepler might not share the same hitting philosophy as guys like Bryant or Donaldson, their process has led to decent results at a young age.

    Kepler says the mindset -- staying on top and through the ball -- helps put him in the best position for him to make what he believes is optimal contact: a line drive that carries up and into the overhang at Target Field.

    All players have different cues and feels that help them create their swings. What they tell themselves and what actually happens can be two totally different events. Brian Dozier says he tries to drive the ball through the center field wall. Dozier, of course, pounds more balls about five feet inside the left field foul pole than anyone in the game. Byron Buxton says he tries to drive the ball to second base during batting practice but as September showed, Buxton is completely capable of turning on the ball and driving it into the air.

    For Kepler, trying to get himself to hit ground balls only is useful to him when he feels when he is out of whack and struggling. The results he wants to see are pearly white baseballs disappearing into the right field stands.

    “Bonds told me just try to hit hard ground balls, hit the ball through the pitcher’s forehead,” he says. “Try to find your bat path because once it is level and you’re comfortable with it, you are going to square balls up and they are going to go where you want it.”

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    I'll trust Kepler's judgement for a very simple reason: He's a dedicated student of the game, and he has gotten better each year. The technique Kepler is attempting to perfect is a mental model that either will help him, or not. Regardless how Kepler translates or mis-translates this meme through his verbal description, the results will be revealed in how well he hits in games. The only important interpretation is between Kepler's head and his hands. If he's onto a good technique, then he'll be mashing screaming line drives with backspin. If he winds up pounding weak grounders to the second baseman, then it'll be time to tinker with his grand theory. 

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    Sweet spot on the bat meets ball.  Flat or uppercut doesn't matter if there is not the proper contact.  When there becomes enough Statcast data the good professor Nathan will have the variables bat speed, swing plane, exit velocity and launch angles optimized.

     

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    Look at the uppercut on this kid.

     

    http://cdn.quotesgram.com/img/40/68/1081434051-1395768241000-Batter-Up-Charlie-Brown-cov.jpg

    That Charlie Brown kid reminds me of a young Joe Shlabotnik. I remember when he played for the Saints, then the Millers, and finally the old St. Cloud Rox...Let me tell you, no one knew anything about launch angles in those days. Back then it was "see the ball, hit the ball", that's what's wrong with the game today.

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    If JD Martinez is right, then pitchers are starting to counter the uppercut swing with high four seemers. A level swing should do better against those than an uppercut.

     

    This has been the argument for several years since the Oakland A's began trying to accumulate fly ball oriented hitters to combat the sinker. I've pointed this out on Twitter but because hitters have started to gear their swings for sinkers and two-seamers, pitchers have had greater success sneaking fastballs up in and above the zone:

     

    https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/780958325676445696

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    Go to the conclusions:

     

    - pine tar (coefficient of friction) doesn't help

    - wrist rotation at point of impact doesn't help

    - backspin is absolutely necessary for distance (what they mean by drag crisis occurs), but they find it generated by where on the ball the bat strikes (1 inch low is optimal), not by swing angle (i.e. not by chopping wood)

    - speaking of swing angle, slight uppercut is optimal, but matters less than striking below the center of the ball

     

    Not sure whether the 2011 study someone else referenced contradicts any of this.

    Excellent summation.

    I remember reading an interview with Justin Morneau where he was talking about rolling his wrists when hitting the ball to gain 'lift'. Vavra (hitting coach at the time) is old school. You don't need to be a physics professor to read that part above in bold and say, "Well, yeah".

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    This has been the argument for several years since the Oakland A's began trying to accumulate fly ball oriented hitters to combat the sinker. I've pointed this out on Twitter but because hitters have started to gear their swings for sinkers and two-seamers, pitchers have had greater success sneaking fastballs up in and above the zone:

     

    https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/780958325676445696

     

    And now that the strikezone is being raised this year there might be a greater emphasis to pitch up in the zone regardless of upper-cut swings.

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    And now that the strikezone is being raised this year there might be a greater emphasis to pitch up in the zone regardless of upper-cut swings.

    Not this year, the player didn't approve that proposal.

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    Not a good article. I am an engineer/inventer and have studied hitting for a number of years.

    Kepler needs to look at the film of his actual stroke and more simply the picture above.

    Good hitters actually swing flat, meaning they swing perpendicular to their spine. The swing plane is actually on a slight upward angle relative to the ground because, as you can see from the Kepler swing picture above, the spine is at a backwards angle.

    The pitched ball is normally released from the pitchers hand at a higher elevation than the elevation of the bat above the ground as the bat travels through the hit zone.

    Therefore, an optimum swing tends to occur within the same plane as the pitched ball path increasing the time the bat travels on the same path as the pitched ball.

    Watching Harmon Killebrew's and Brian Dozier's swings exactly follow the path as I have described here.

    Attempting to swing on a path that is not similar to the path of the pitched ball as it passes through the hitting zone gives you a lesser chance of contacting the ball.

     

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    I learned how to hit when I played that video game of the Polar Bear hitting the fish that shoot up out of the hole in the ice.  I always noticed that if I got too far on top of the fish, it hit the ground and only slid about 50 feet.  When I got too far under the fish it would go really really high but only go about 100 feet.  When I hit it just right, it would would go a long ways, and if I did that enough times I'd get a gold fish to hit!!!

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    I learned how to hit when I played that video game of the Polar Bear hitting the fish that shoot up out of the hole in the ice.  I always noticed that if I got too far on top of the fish, it hit the ground and only slid about 50 feet.  When I got too far under the fish it would go really really high but only go about 100 feet.  When I hit it just right, it would would go a long ways, and if I did that enough times I'd get a gold fish to hit!!!

    It seems as if you may not have seen many gold fish?

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    I learned how to hit when I played that video game of the Polar Bear hitting the fish that shoot up out of the hole in the ice.  I always noticed that if I got too far on top of the fish, it hit the ground and only slid about 50 feet.  When I got too far under the fish it would go really really high but only go about 100 feet.  When I hit it just right, it would would go a long ways, and if I did that enough times I'd get a gold fish to hit!!!

    That's the same video game that Mike Trout is based off of...

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    Go to the conclusions:

     

    - pine tar (coefficient of friction) doesn't help

    - wrist rotation at point of impact doesn't help

    - backspin is absolutely necessary for distance (what they mean by drag crisis occurs), but they find it generated by where on the ball the bat strikes (1 inch low is optimal), not by swing angle (i.e. not by chopping wood)

    - speaking of swing angle, slight uppercut is optimal, but matters less than striking below the center of the ball

     

    Not sure whether the 2011 study someone else referenced contradicts any of this.

    There would be a relationship between launch angle, backspin, exit velocity, and the spot on the ball contact is made

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