INSIDE THE GAME

[Parker Hageman]

For those who have followed Twins Daily for some time might know that I like to dig into the hows and whys of the game in addition to the data side. Not having the opportunity to write full breakdowns here as often anymore, I wanted to create this thread to use as a place to post items discussing the game -- swings, approaches, game theories, data utilization, front office trends, etc -- things that do not necessarily involve the Twins specifically but might influence how you might view the game overall. I hope to post something to the thread on a regular basis. 

 

In the comment sections I have seen plenty of great insight and questions regarding the game so I hope we can use this thread to post videos, articles, quotes and discussion points. I hope we can make this a valuable asset of the Twins Daily community.

 

First up: Josh Donaldson on the MLB Network discussing his swing mechanics. 

 

 

I believe this video is a must watch for any hitter or coach. I'm sure not everyone will agree on the method but the concept and the thought-process behind his swings is unbelievable. To tie it to the Twins, after watching this, how do you think the organization has been trying to teach Byron Buxton to swing? Have they been doing him a disservice? 

[Mike Sixel]

Ok, this could be a great thread! Let's hope you can keep up the process...

[Willihammer]

In some ways its the exact opposite from the way I was coached growing up. Craziness.

 

Donaldson mentions Hunter Bledsoe when talking about not thinking about his hands. Out of curiosity I pulled up the Bledsoe Agency on MLBTR. Other clients include Derrick Robinson, Justin Smoak, and then a handful of pitchers.

 

As for Buxton, I feel like you can't put the cart before the horse. His struggles are so basic- contact, pitch recognition, that to teach him a power maximizing approach like this would sort of miss the point. He needs to walk before he can dance.

[Parker Hageman]

  Quote

In some ways its the exact opposite from the way I was coached growing up. Craziness.

 

 

I think that in a lot of ways, the availability of video on hitters throughout history plays a prominent role on what hitters like Donaldson are doing now versus what we were taught. Most generations relied on feel and trying to communicate what they felt was the best method to hitting (staying still, hit the top half on the ball, hands to the ball, chop down, etc). It wasn't until more recently that video has shown that successful hitters are not actually executing that way. 

 

It seems that more frequently, whenever we see a hitter having a breakout year or a career turnaround, it's often with that hitter changing their style from the previous methods to something that more closely resembles what Donaldson spoke of.

 

Brad Miller, who averaged 10 home runs per season with the Mariners, suddenly has popped off for 25 and counting. Check out how much his swing has changed. 

 

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/762324086118768640

[Parker Hageman]

Corey Koskie Reacts To Josh Donaldson's Hitting Instructional

 

I don't think what Donaldson was talking about is all that radical -- after all, Ted Williams detailed a lot of what he was talking about in the Science of Hitting book that came out in 1971. A lot of Donaldson's overall concepts were outlined in Williams' manuscript. Still, those ideas are not widespread throughout the game. 

 

It was interesting to see former Twin Corey Koskie weigh in on the video last night:

 

 

"I just learned how to hit 15 years too late."

 

I'd love to pick his brain and know what he was taught -- starting in his lumberjack days in Canada all the way through the Twins system. It would seem that none of those traits were presented to the players throughout the late 1990s and early 2000s... and even more recently:

 

 

"I’ve changed a lot. I remember coming into my rookie ball season and I went and just played. I thought I did a pretty good job. Then the following spring training, our hitting coordinator, Slice, wanted to change somethings and I was up for the change. I wanted to produce and do well by the team and the organization. He started to have me do a toe-tap thing." -- Trevor Plouffe

 

"They changed me in rookie ball. They closed me up. They slowed down some movement a bit." -- Byron Buxton

 

Those are just two isolated instances. I do know that Chad Allen has been really good at letting hitters find rhythm and Brunansky is supportive as well (to an extent). When I asked Brunansky about what he saw out of the Blue Jays organization, including what Donaldson was doing, this is what he said:

 

  Quote

"I think that they come in free to not worry about certain things. They’re not worried about striking out (NOTE: over the last three seasons the Blue Jays have the highest slugging percentage and the 9th lowest strikeout rate in the American League). They are not worried about putting the ball in play in certain situations. They are going to go attack. They figure they are going to do enough damage. It started a long time ago, I think that philosophy started when Cito Gaston was there, when he was their hitting guy. Then it kinda took off when Cito was the manager and then they had Dwayne Murphy there,  you know Murph had a leg kick. I think you can go back to the days when George Bell, Lloyd Moseby and Jesse Barfield and the era that I played, those were the same type of guys, a bunch of free swingers. So... an organizational thing, probably, and there’s really not been anybody that has come in and wanted to change what they do because they have had success with it."

 

 

Plouffe had a similar response about if he felt the Blue Jays were on to something with their hitting philosophy:

 

"In my opinion you don’t want to conform everybody to the same type of swing because everybody has grown up swinging differently. We’ve swung for 27 years now and it’s who we are. If you can get to that certain spot, people are realizing there are a million different ways to get there."

 

I don't know much from the rest of the hitting coaches and instructors in the organization but I am inclined to believe they are embracing this method more than they did in the past. 

 

 

 

[Parker Hageman]

Successful changeups are about movement, not speed

 

Or so Brian Bannister and Zack Grienke discovered during the early days of PitchF/X data.

 

According to the Providence Journal’s Brian Macpherson, the duo stumbled on to some useful information regarding what made a changeup so devastating. It wasn’t speed differential, it was movement:

 

  Quote

“The name of the pitch is almost deceiving,” Bannister said. “What I spent years trying to do was take more speed off it. We always watched James Shields, Felix Hernandez, and their changeups didn’t look like anybody else’s. Everybody was telling us, ‘Hold this circle change grip and just throw it slower.’ These guys, their ball is going straight down. They’re actually manipulating it. Those were the ‘Aha’ movements. My last year, in 2009, my ground-ball percentage went up before I got hurt like 10 percent that year, and it was purely because I’d figured out how to make my changeup move. Greinke is still using that today.”

 

 

Bannister washed out as a pitcher but has found a new career with the Red Sox, first as a member of the front office’s analytics team and now as a member of the coaching staff, acting as an assistant pitching coach in hopes of helping other pitchers digest this type of information.

 

This idea definitely runs counterintuitive to what is typically taught inside the game at all levels. For example, just this week I received an email from Pro Baseball Insider, a fantastic instructional site run by former Twin Doug Bernier (who has also become a disciple of the elite swing mechanics Josh Donaldson talked about). The email came equipped with a guide on how to throw a changeup written by former Twins farmhand Anthony Slama. Slama wrote that the “fundamental purpose” of the pitch is to “deceive the hitter and change his timing.”

 

“By altering the speed of the pitch without altering arm-speed or delivery,” Slama wrote, “the pitcher can deceive a hitter and by doing this have a better chance at keeping the ball off his barrel.”

 

While speed separation and arm action consistency play a role, at no point does Slama mentions movement. In the early 1980s, pitching coach Johnny Podres had Frank Viola incorporate a changeup into his repertoire and helped him establish a consistent arm slot similar to his fastball. But the pitch didn’t really take off from there. By Viola’s own admission, he used “15 to 20” different grips until he worked with Dick Such where he found the right grip and that turned into the earth-scorching changeup he used throughout the rest of the 1980s.

 

When Johan Santana’s changeup was dominating baseball’s landscape and leaving piles of bodies in its path, many reports and descriptions focused on the idea that Santana’s changeup came out of his hand like a cotton ball with fastball arm action. What is often left off is how much the pitch moved.

 

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/630892538086457344

Whether you are working on a changeup of your own, helping others work on their or simply watching the game on TV, remember to look for movement out of a pitcher’s changeup. 

[wsnydes]

This is some fascinating stuff and great conversation fodder.  Thanks for getting this thread going!

[Parker Hageman]

Bert Blyleven On Fixing Jose Berrios

 

On Friday night in Kansas City, Bert Blyleven honed in on an aspect of Jose Berrios’ delivery that he felt needed attention.

 

“Right...there!” Blyleven exclaimed as Berrios delivered strike three to the Royals’ Jarrod Dyson in the bottom of the first. “EXPLODE towards home plate.”

 

Blyleven further elaborated his point by saying “once you get to that balance point, utilize the rubber and explode towards home plate” and that Berrios needed to “push off” the rubber more. For those who are able to see the embedded Twitter post, you can watch and listen to the entire conversation here:

 

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/766878258956644353

 

Now, regular Twins broadcast viewers will recall this piece of advice. This, along with a “good downward plane”, have become common pitching jargon slung around for years. It has come to the point where if any Twins pitcher is struggling, the inevitable cure from the broadcast booth would likely be one of those two remedies.

 

When it comes to utilizing the rubber by pushing off, as Blyleven suggests, science might not agree with the Dutchman’s assessment. According to Kyle Boddy and his Driveline Baseball think tank in Seattle, Washington has studied the “push off” phenomenon and his preliminary research shows that the back leg push off is not the velocity-inducing catalyst that people think it is.

 

Boddy offered the Mariners’ Arquimedes Caminero as a good example of how velocity isn’t generated off the back leg. When he gets to his balance point and goes forward, his foot disengages the rubber area but doesn’t push off.

 

http://i.imgur.com/cxLJzHG.gif

 

When it comes this particular pitching cue, Blyleven is incorrect. By Boddy’s account, coming someone who has dedicated their career to understanding the science behind it, pushing from the back leg has little influence with velocity or command. What we hear from players, former players and coaches is a disconnect between what they FELT and what is actually happening during the process. To Blyleven, the act of driving off the back leg may have felt like pushing off the pitching rubber but that is not what actually transpires in the kinetic chain.

 

There is no question Berrios needs some refinement. When it comes to his fastball command, he has found the zone just 46% of the time -- compared to the 53.5% major league average. In fact, of those who have thrown 350 or more fastballs, Berrios’ in-zone rate is the fifth lowest. Beyond that, Berrios also struggles to command his fastball in the zone, missing the glove by a wide margin and winding up in a hitter’s whump-em zone. That being said, in spite of the poor command, Berrios’ movement and velocity on his fastball has incited plenty of swing-and-misses making it a very good weapon.

 

[berrios' fastball location vs Kansas City]

 

In the case of Berrios’ development, as Mike Berardino of the St Paul Pioneer Press recently phrased it, the Twins are using a “village” approach. In addition to Blyleven, Berrios has been receiving advice from Neil Allen, Eddie Guardado and teammate Ervin Santana. While the guidance of multiple experienced baseball men can be beneficial, there is also the danger that a young prospect has too many messages being communicated -- especially when some of the advice, in spite of the well-meaning nature, is wrong. 

[Parker Hageman]

Rays Organization Evaluating Hitters Differently

 

The Tampa Bay Rays organization have always been at the leading edge of using information and data before other teams latch on and this might be yet another example. TangoTiger, co-author of The Book, shared a line from a forthcoming Sports Illustrated article:

 

 

For those who are unable to see the embedded tweet, Albert Chen's article notes that the "Rays’ organization... are told that hitters ... are not measured by batting average but by batted-ball exit velocity."

 

That's a significant mindset shift for minor leaguers who tend to focus more on the newspaper box score stats. Moving to a measurement system that captures the process of what makes a good hitter (exit velocity, launch angle, etc) is far superior.

 

To be sure, the Twins do have Trackman in most of their minor league ballparks and use that data to evaluate their players, but I would guess that inside the front office the Twins employees are likely discussing Byungho Park's batting average rather than his exit velocity.

[Willihammer]

  On 8/20/2016 at 8:19 PM, Parker Hageman said:

Blyleven further elaborated his point by saying “once you get to that balance point, utilize the rubber and explode towards home plate” and that Berrios needed to “push off” the rubber more. For those who are able to see the embedded Twitter post, you can watch and listen to the entire conversation here:

 

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/766878258956644353

 

Is it just Bert? At the end he says "that's the motion I think Neil Allen wants to see."

[KGB]

 

  On 8/21/2016 at 3:19 PM, Parker Hageman said:

Rays Organization Evaluating Hitters Differently

 

The Tampa Bay Rays organization have always been at the leading edge of using information and data before other teams latch on and this might be yet another example. TangoTiger, co-author of The Book, shared a line from a forthcoming Sports Illustrated article:

 

 

For those who are unable to see the embedded tweet, Albert Chen's article notes that the "Rays’ organization... are told that hitters ... are not measured by batting average but by batted-ball exit velocity."

 

That's a significant mindset shift for minor leaguers who tend to focus more on the newspaper box score stats. Moving to a measurement system that captures the process of what makes a good hitter (exit velocity, launch angle, etc) is far superior.

 

To be sure, the Twins do have Trackman in most of their minor league ballparks and use that data to evaluate their players, but I would guess that inside the front office the Twins employees are likely discussing Byungho Park's batting average rather than his exit velocity.

The Rays have been 27th out of 30 teams since 2014 in runs scored, maybe they should concentrate a little more on batting average and less of exit velocity.

[Parker Hageman]

 

  On 8/21/2016 at 9:02 PM, KGB said:

The Rays have been 27th out of 30 teams since 2014 in runs scored, maybe they should concentrate a little more on batting average and less of exit velocity.

 

Since Trackman data only became available at all stadiums starting in 2015, I'll assume they didn't have that in-play dating back to 2014. But, more to the point, exit velocity/launch angle is a much more valuable data set to examine when it comes to player development than batting average. 

[Parker Hageman]

 

  On 8/21/2016 at 4:58 PM, Willihammer said:

Is it just Bert? At the end he says "that's the motion I think Neil Allen wants to see."

 

That is a fair point and, to be honest, I don't know what Neil Allen is telling Berrios, so I refrained from commenting on that. 

[KGB]

 

  On 8/22/2016 at 1:59 AM, Parker Hageman said:

Since Trackman data only became available at all stadiums starting in 2015, I'll assume they didn't have that in-play dating back to 2014. But, more to the point, exit velocity/launch angle is a much more valuable data set to examine when it comes to player development than batting average. 

Since we only have data back to 2015, isn't a more accurate to say this is a theory not an "much more valuable data set"?

[Platoon]

How does Berrios FB strike % in MLB compare with his MiLB stats. Meaning is this an outlier, or SOP?

[biggentleben]

I may or may not have watched that Donaldson video about 1,000 times now. Pitching is an area that I can watch and just get, but hitting...well, I still need work on that in my scouting eye. His video was incredible.

 

The change up stuff is more than just movement. The movement has to initially mimic the fastball. It can tail differently in the end or something to that effect, but the initial dip or rise or cut of the pitch should mimic the pitcher's primary fastball, and that is as much key as velocity separation. 

[Parker Hageman]

 

  On 8/22/2016 at 12:01 PM, KGB said:

Since we only have data back to 2015, isn't a more accurate to say this is a theory not an "much more valuable data set"?

 

In the case of how individuals fare season-to-season, maybe. Certainly there isn't enough data around to know how a player will perform year-over-year. 

 

The real value comes from the insanely large data set that has been studied and extensively and one of the amazing findings is that hits happen at a higher rate on batted balls that have an exit velocity of 90 MPH or greater and a launch angle between 10-30 degrees. In terms of development, if you know that one of your prospects is hitting more of those types of balls in play, you know that they are doing something right. It may be reflected in their batting average but that is not always the case. Conversely, if they are not hitting a high percentage of balls in that range, then you likely know there is something to work on. 

 

Again, I see the value as a common language of the front office. If you are discussing a player's performance in the minors and just say "he's hitting .280 the last 30 days for Fort Myers", that doesn't mean anything in regards to his actual performance. If you talk about his exit velocity/launch angles and how many optimal batted balls he has put into play (in additional to strikeout rates, walk rates, etc), for example, now you know have a better understanding of that performance. 

[Parker Hageman]

 

  On 8/22/2016 at 12:59 PM, Platoon said:

How does Berrios FB strike % in MLB compare with his MiLB stats. Meaning is this an outlier, or SOP?

 

There is no minor league data available like that but based on scouting reports over the years, there were frequently lines written about needing to improve/refine his fastball command. 

[Parker Hageman]

 

  On 8/22/2016 at 1:10 PM, biggentleben said:

The change up stuff is more than just movement. The movement has to initially mimic the fastball. It can tail differently in the end or something to that effect, but the initial dip or rise or cut of the pitch should mimic the pitcher's primary fastball, and that is as much key as velocity separation. 

 

With all your pitches, you are going to want to have them look the same to a hitter before moving. Often times you hear a pitcher who gets his curveball smacked around as having one that humps -- jumps up off the line from the fastball prematurely and hitters recognize it. 

 

There is a lot that goes into a good changeup but what Bannister has found is that THE BEST ones are about movement, not speed. 

[markos]

 

  On 8/22/2016 at 2:10 PM, Parker Hageman said:

With all your pitches, you are going to want to have them look the same to a hitter before moving. Often times you hear a pitcher who gets his curveball smacked around as having one that humps -- jumps up off the line from the fastball prematurely and hitters recognize it. 

 

There is a lot that goes into a good changeup but what Bannister has found is that THE BEST ones are about movement, not speed. 

Do you think the movement has to be in a specific direction relative (opposite? perpendicular?) to the fastball movement? Basically, it is easier for a hitter to slow down a swing (or keep the barrel in the zone?) long enough that a change up that differs in only speed will still be hit (or easier to hit?). But if the movement is drastically different, the batter has to adjust timing AND swing-plane, which makes a change up much more difficult.

[KGB]

 

  On 8/22/2016 at 2:02 PM, Parker Hageman said:

In the case of how individuals fare season-to-season, maybe. Certainly there isn't enough data around to know how a player will perform year-over-year. 

 

The real value comes from the insanely large data set that has been studied and extensively and one of the amazing findings is that hits happen at a higher rate on batted balls that have an exit velocity of 90 MPH or greater and a launch angle between 10-30 degrees. In terms of development, if you know that one of your prospects is hitting more of those types of balls in play, you know that they are doing something right. It may be reflected in their batting average but that is not always the case. Conversely, if they are not hitting a high percentage of balls in that range, then you likely know there is something to work on. 

 

Again, I see the value as a common language of the front office. If you are discussing a player's performance in the minors and just say "he's hitting .280 the last 30 days for Fort Myers", that doesn't mean anything in regards to his actual performance. If you talk about his exit velocity/launch angles and how many optimal batted balls he has put into play (in additional to strikeout rates, walk rates, etc), for example, now you know have a better understanding of that performance. 

I agree it's something worth looking at, but saying we are replacing average with exit velocity is just another oversimplification. Jose Altuve is the league MVP with a below average exit velocity and launch angle.  It move important to a player like Park and less to a player like Buxton.

 

This reminds me of the movement to have players take more pitches to increase walks.  The results, an increase in strike outs and walks stayed about the same.  You might have got starter out of the game earlier, but bullpens became more dominate.  OBP was replaced by SLG percentage as the best indicator for runs. 

 

It will be interesting to look back at the Ray's results in a few years.

[Parker Hageman]

 

  On 8/23/2016 at 11:13 AM, KGB said:

I agree it's something worth looking at, but saying we are replacing average with exit velocity is just another oversimplification. Jose Altuve is the league MVP with a below average exit velocity and launch angle.  It move important to a player like Park and less to a player like Buxton.

 

This reminds me of the movement to have players take more pitches to increase walks.  The results, an increase in strike outs and walks stayed about the same.  You might have got starter out of the game earlier, but bullpens became more dominate.  OBP was replaced by SLG percentage as the best indicator for runs. 

 

It will be interesting to look back at the Ray's results in a few years.

 

Altuve is at the MLB average in exit velo and slightly above the average in launch angle. It's not necessarily the averages that should be examined, but the amount of batted balls put into play in the optimal ranges. 

 

Second, I don't think you've proven that using batting average as a measurement for player development is somehow better than looking at exit velocity, launch angles, etc. The Rays are not ONLY using Trackman data for their player analysis but when it comes to that data versus batting average, Trackman's data is far superior. 

 

[Parker Hageman]

Angles In The Outfield: The Shifting Trend Leaves The Infield

 

Readers may remember the foofra caused by the New York Mets who were irked by the Los Angeles Dodgers’ request to add paint to the outfield surface of Citi Field to help guide the Dodgers’ fielders into the right alignment. The analytics department for the Dodgers had gone a long way in developing a system to properly place their fielders and wanted to make sure they were in the right spot at the right time. The Mets however said, ah, no.

 

No matter, the Dodgers went ahead and gave their fielders defensive alignment cards to reference during the game, as you see Howie Kendrick do in this video clip:

 

 

While infield shifting is at the forefront with the extended camera time, outfield shifting has become the next frontier for the game. This ESPN article by Wallace Matthews details the game’s next big shift.

 

The Yankees, similar to the Dodgers, take an analytical approach when it comes to the placement of their players:

 

  Quote

 

Those locations are determined by a proprietary computer program developed by the Yankees' analytic squad, headed by David Grabiner. It takes a multitude of factors -- among them the hitter's power, his tendency to pull or not pull the ball, and his career history against the Yankees' pitcher that night -- and spits out a spray chart which places the outfielder in the optimal position to make a play.

 

"We have analytical assessments that show specifically where guys hit the ball," a Yankees staffer told ESPN.com. "I mean, it shows us exactly where guys hit the ball just about every time. And it's hitter/pitcher specific, based on pitch velocity and location. Positioning is based on a lot of factors, including the speed of the defender."

 

 

Like the Dodgers’ guidance system which outfielders take out to the field with them, the Yankees keep their location finders in their hats and outfielders periodically take them off to ensure their feet are in the right spot calculated by the numbers crunchers upstairs.

 

The bigger question is, does it work?

 

  Quote

 

The team's "out rate" -- the number of fly balls converted into outs by their outfielders -- has actually decreased since 2010, when they converted 69.2 percent -- a number that would put them second in the majors in 2016 -- according to ESPN Stats & Information.

 

But over the past five years, including the two seasons in which they have used their computer algorithm, the Yankees out rate has hovered at a decidedly middle-of-the-road 65 percent.

 

 

The Yankees, it was pointed out, have had an aging outfield that included Carlos Beltran. The other issue, as cited by the article, is pitchers missing their spots.

 

[markos]

 

  On 8/23/2016 at 3:12 PM, Parker Hageman said:

Altuve is at the MLB average in exit velo and slightly above the average in launch angle. It's not necessarily the averages that should be examined, but the amount of batted balls put into play in the optimal ranges. 

 

Second, I don't think you've proven that using batting average as a measurement for player development is somehow better than looking at exit velocity, launch angles, etc. The Rays are not ONLY using Trackman data for their player analysis but when it comes to that data versus batting average, Trackman's data is far superior. 

There has been some work by Glenn Healey (and I'm sure others) to develop a better model for assigning value for a hit based on the batted-ball characteristics. Here is an article from March that he presented at Saberseminar: http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-intrinsic-value-of-a-batted-ball/. He calculated an expected wOBA based on exit-velocity, launch angle and horizontal angle. Using this model (or something similar) to grade contact will work better than simply using average velocity since the results don't follow a linear pattern - 50mph hit + 100mph hit != 2 75mph hits.

 

Using a model like this (built off of major league data) to grade minor league players has the added benefit that it allows you to grade a prospect by major league standards. For example, it could identify players that are taking advantage of minor league-specific conditions (poor, inconsistent defenders, smaller ballparks, worst grounds-keeping) that may inflate a player's stat-line.

[Parker Hageman]

 

  On 8/23/2016 at 6:37 PM, markos said:

There has been some work by Glenn Healey (and I'm sure others) to develop a better model for assigning value for a hit based on the batted-ball characteristics. Here is an article from March that he presented at Saberseminar: http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-intrinsic-value-of-a-batted-ball/. He calculated an expected wOBA based on exit-velocity, launch angle and horizontal angle. Using this model (or something similar) to grade contact will work better than simply using average velocity since the results don't follow a linear pattern - 50mph hit + 100mph hit != 2 75mph hits.

 

Using a model like this (built off of major league data) to grade minor league players has the added benefit that it allows you to grade a prospect by major league standards. For example, it could identify players that are taking advantage of minor league-specific conditions (poor, inconsistent defenders, smaller ballparks, worst grounds-keeping) that may inflate a player's stat-line.

 

Excellent stuff. I wish I paid more attention in math class.

[KGB]

 

  On 8/23/2016 at 3:12 PM, Parker Hageman said:

Second, I don't think you've proven that using batting average as a measurement for player development is somehow better than looking at exit velocity, launch angles, etc. The Rays are not ONLY using Trackman data for their player analysis but when it comes to that data versus batting average, Trackman's data is far superior. 

I don't think BA or exit velocity should be looked at in a vacuum, which it sounds like when the Ray's say: players "are not measured by batting average but by batted-ball exit velocity."

 

Trackman data maybe superior, but the reason you look at the data is to try to get players who can have a higher BA and produce more runs.  I think traditional stats are very basis, but in the long run, they do reflect what a player has done.  Ricky Nolasco has 10 years of better FIP stats, but at some point you have to realize he is the player his ERA says he is.

[Parker Hageman]

 

  On 8/24/2016 at 11:52 AM, KGB said:

I don't think BA or exit velocity should be looked at in a vacuum, which it sounds like when the Ray's say: players "are not measured by batting average but by batted-ball exit velocity."

 

Trackman data maybe superior, but the reason you look at the data is to try to get players who can have a higher BA and produce more runs.  I think traditional stats are very basis, but in the long run, they do reflect what a player has done.  Ricky Nolasco has 10 years of better FIP stats, but at some point you have to realize he is the player his ERA says he is.

 

That's the exact point. They are looking at players in an inferior, inconsistent system (the minor leagues) where they *don't* have 10 years of data. They are trying to project a player's potential and batting average, ERA, etc, etc, isn't going to tell them that. 

[Parker Hageman]

Twins reliever Pat Dean changes things up.

 

This story sort of piggybacks off of the previous post about changeups and movement. According to an article from the Citizen's News, the Twins encouraged Pat Dean to work on a few things including refining his changeup:

 

  Quote

“When I was sent down I was told to work on the change-up,” said Dean. “When things are not going well it can really wear on you mentally. I stopped throwing the straight change and developed a more split finger change and started getting the results I was looking for.”

 

 

Since his recall, Dean's been used out of the pen so there doesn't seem to be a reason to throw the changeup (he's been leaning on his fastball/slider) and I'm not sure how much more successful his new grip actually is. In his first stint with Rochester this year, he held opponents to a 522 OPS. When he was sent back and working on the new grip, opponents posted a 944 OPS.

 

I'm guessing it still needs work.  

[Parker Hageman]

Baseball’s Trackman System Isn’t Tracking Everything

 

Going back to our discussion regarding the Rays and their use of things like exit velocity over conventional stats like batting average, FiveThirtyEight.com’s Rob Arthur (a good follow on Twitter, by the way) reports that MLB’s Trackman system -- which was installed at stadiums league-wide in 2015 -- isn’t tracking everything:

 

  Quote

 

Front office analysts I spoke with said that Statcast’s radars frequently lose track of batted balls on atypical trajectories — for example, with extremely high (popup) or low (chopper) angles. In 2015, Statcast failed to provide data on 13.4 percent of all batted balls; it’s gotten a bit better as time has progressed, dropping to 12.5 percent in the first half of 2016 to only 11.2 percent since July.

 

 

Arthur also mentioned that the system, similar to PitchF/X or radar guns, has shown different data in different stadiums. For instance, if you play your home games at Chase Field with the Diamondbacks, you might have an average exit velocity one mile per hour higher because that stadium’s Trackman system has dropped nearly 22 percent of batted ball data, most of which is of the low velocity variety. If you are making judgements for signing a free agent out of Arizona and you are using exit velocity, it might not provide you with the purest information. (Although Arthur suggests you can impute the data and find a closer to reality number.)

 

The Twins have the system installed in their affiliates from AAA down to Low-A. It would be interesting to know if they are running into similar problems. This last spring training Jack Goin mentioned that the Fort Myers’ Trackman system frequently picks up birds swooping down on the field and those instances need to be cleaned from the data. I wonder just how reliable the data is coming from the lower levels. 

KGB brought up some valid points in the thread and this one is another reason to be cautious with the data. That being said, I still believe the information provided by StatCast and Trackman will forever alter the way we view the game and the way the front offices build their teams. 

[d-mac]

 

  On 8/22/2016 at 12:01 PM, KGB said:

Since we only have data back to 2015, isn't a more accurate to say this is a theory not an "much more valuable data set"?

 

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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-new-science-of-hitting/