Making Moves (to the Bullpen)

I think the Twins and the league are going to have a lot of non-traditional pitchers.  The really top guys will continue to be managed in a relatively traditional role.  There will also be guys that pitch in 2-4 innings or even 5 on occasion and a few one inning guys.  a 13 pitcher staff might look like this ...

#1 - Traditional Starter

#2 - Traditional Starter

6-7 - Pitchers who pitch 2-5 innings per outing

RPs - 3-4 guys who pitch one inning at a time.

Canterino / Strotman / Vallimont and a number of our other prospects might get their start in a 2-5 inning role and hopefully grown into a traditional role.

Good point Major League.  I'm far too traditional in my thinking,  but this could very well be the way it's going.  Teams don't want to pay a SP half of what Max Scherzer makes while getting 1/3 of the production.  One constant in baseball is that there are always only a few "Max Scherzer's" around at any given time.   The Twins got Johann Santana going in the BP.  The Dodgers have bounced Urias back and forth (probably not anymore though) and have done the same with Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin etc...  I think fast-tracking guys like Canterino, Strotman and even Duran to the majors in a BP role like that is a GOOD idea.  After 2-years of seasoning with the big club if the results are good and the team and pitcher agree, maybe they look to build his innings up and transition him to a SP role.  The fact is, even though the NEED for SP'ing is acute for the Twins right now not ALL of their highly regarded prospects will pan out as SP's.  It's also why I'd move a couple of these minor league pitchers if I needed to seal a deal that would return a Montas or Sixto Sanchez or Pablo Lopez.  We really have an overabundance of these SP prospects.  We need to give a little to get a Montas or Lopez in return.  

What the heck, why not? It's not like we have seen any great plans work out the last few years. If these guys are 24-26 years old they aren't going to season any better in Wichita. If they show something then they can be kept and groomed for bigger things or traded for bigger things.

46 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I think the Twins and the league are going to have a lot of non-traditional pitchers.  The really top guys will continue to be managed in a relatively traditional role.  There will also be guys that pitch in 2-4 inning guys and a few one inning guys.  a 13 pitcher staff might look like this ...

#1 - Traditional Starter

#2 - Traditional Starter

7 - Pitchers who pitch 2-5 innings per outing

RPs - 4 guys who pitch one inning at a time.

Canterino / Strotman / Vallimont and a number of our other prospects might get their start in a 2-5 inning role and hopefully grown into a traditional role.

I have advocated for a different idea - go back to the 4 man rotation. When baseball changed to the 5 man rotation starting pitchers were throwing 250 innings a season over 40 starts. Now they're lucky if a starter pitches 160 innings over 33 starts. Workloads have dropped from 130 pitches per start to 90 pitches.

Starting pitchers are your best pitchers. You want to get more innings from them. We have seen the rise of the bullpen because generic relievers can do better their 1st time through a lineup than your 3rd starter can the 3rd time through that same lineup. To get more innings from your starting pitchers you either need to let them face the lineup a 3rd time more often or have them start more often. I would opt for the latter. Limit the starter to 2x through the lineup but pitch them every 4 games. This should give a team 180-200 quality innings from their starter. With the reduced workload they should be able to recover in time for the game 3 days later. It will require modifying their between-games training regimen but that should be manageable.

Vallimont looks like bullpen or bust. He's going to need to be able to put the ball over the plate more consistently. 6 walks per 9 innings is way too high.

I don't think Canterino is going to go to the 'pen any time soon. Yes, the injuries are a concern, but he's also shown the ability to be successful as a starter, so I think the team is going to give him every opportunity to make it in that role before they try dropping him into the bullpen.

Vallimont and Strotman are different cases, I think. Strotman didn't have a lot of success in AAA for the team this year, is getting a little older, and is much closer to a break point. Vallimont simply may not have the command and control to ever be a starter, but there's no question he has the stuff. He was protected from the Rule 5 draft because there was a high likelihood that a team would take a flyer on him in the bullpen right now. While I expect Vallimont to get another shot at starting this season, he's definitely on a path where if he can't find the consistency soon he'll make the move.

Frankly, I have to wonder if Thorpe is a more likely candidate as well. He's struggling to break through, he's seen a dip in velocity that may make it harder for him to find that success as a starter, and maybe a change in role will help him out mentally and physically.

It seems like Dobnak might also fit this mold. But he's also a cautionary tale: Remember that he was truly awful out of the bullpen but has pitched quite well at times as a starter. What may work for some guys might not for others.

For a few years we had discussions on Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer.  Smeltzer has dropped out of the storyline and I think the other two will soon as well.  If the younger prospects are even close to what we are reading then these borderline pitchers need to get out of the way.  Dobnak has shown that he is not a RP and he is really marginal as a starter.  He will last longer because he has a contract.  But let's hope Balazovic, Duran, Winder, Sands...are better than this threesome. 

7 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

For a few years we had discussions on Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer.  Smeltzer has dropped out of the storyline and I think the other two will soon as well.  If the younger prospects are even close to what we are reading then these borderline pitchers need to get out of the way.  Dobnak has shown that he is not a RP and he is really marginal as a starter.  He will last longer because he has a contract.  But let's hope Balazovic, Duran, Winder, Sands...are better than this threesome. 

I would not give up on Dobnak just yet but I don't see the point of continuing the Thorpe experiment unless his velocity and command look good.  Maybe he can dial it up a notch out of the BP.  2022 is time to test the other guys you mention so we are not still trying to figure it out in 2023.  

Thad Levine hinted at the possibility that there would be more pitchers going shorter stints as a possible scenario this season. I look for maybe all of these young guys that are on the fringe of being MLB ready to be worked short stints as either openers or as 3-4 inning pieces that are moved up and down between the Twins and the Saints. That gets them all some  experience and management a look at them in a major league environment, and a way to fill the Twins needs for more pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen.

Griffin Jax

I am all for a nontraditional approach. Would like to see plenty of young pitchers get an opportunity at MLB level next year.

Hopes for Canterino are higher than the bullpen.  Who cares that he's 24.  Let him develop and by the time he's 26, let's let him roll.  Hopefully, he excels and it also would coincide with the Twins excelling.

Not so sure letting Cantering pitch out of the pen means he can't start later. The guy hasn't pitched and it will be a while before he gets built up. Might be a way to ease him in this year.

Thorpe has had his chance. Maybe they try him out of the pen but I don't see it happening. HIW (hope I'm wrong).

Dobnak is a starter or maybe long relief, but definitely not short relief, high leverage. Not too optimistic with him, but we'll see.

Normally I would say to move Jax to the pen, but this non-traditional approach could work with him. 2-3 innings.

With the injuries and lack of innings pitched by our top prospects, it would be great if they got them up, worked them in shorter stints and rotated them to the Saints and back. Rotating them based on workload and performance. This would not only avoid wasting their bullets in the minors, it would also make watching even a mediocre team way more fun than the marginal veteran types. 

Long boring season ahead for Twins.  Relying on a cupboard full of near ready MLB prospects for an already and depleted, barely AAA pitching staff seems like a long shot at best.  I think they need a decent veteran or two starting pitcher to begin the season otherwise we may be looking at another terrible year of baseball and 90-100 losses.

21 minutes ago, wabene said:

Not so sure letting Cantering pitch out of the pen means he can't start later. The guy hasn't pitched and it will be a while before he gets built up. Might be a way to ease him in this year.

Thorpe has had his chance. Maybe they try him out of the pen but I don't see it happening. HIW (hope I'm wrong).

Dobnak is a starter or maybe long relief, but definitely not short relief, high leverage. Not too optimistic with him, but we'll see.

Normally I would say to move Jax to the pen, but this non-traditional approach could work with him. 2-3 innings.

With the injuries and lack of innings pitched by our top prospects, it would be great if they got them up, worked them in shorter stints and rotated them to the Saints and back. Rotating them based on workload and performance. This would not only avoid wasting their bullets in the minors, it would also make watching even a mediocre team way more fun than the marginal veteran types. 

It will be definitely be more interesting to watch prospects than mediocre veterans and a lot better than watching Shoemaker and Happ last year.  It will also be really exciting if some of these guys step up.  If that happens, we are going to be positioned well for the next several years.  

43 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Long boring season ahead for Twins.  Relying on a cupboard full of near ready MLB prospects for an already and depleted, barely AAA pitching staff seems like a long shot at best.  I think they need a decent veteran or two starting pitcher to begin the season otherwise we may be looking at another terrible year of baseball and 90-100 losses.

Good thing the off-season isn't over.

22 hours ago, twinsfansd said:

Thad Levine hinted at the possibility that there would be more pitchers going shorter stints as a possible scenario this season. I look for maybe all of these young guys that are on the fringe of being MLB ready to be worked short stints as either openers or as 3-4 inning pieces that are moved up and down between the Twins and the Saints. That gets them all some  experience and management a look at them in a major league environment, and a way to fill the Twins needs for more pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen.

If you look at the minors last season, of course they were coming off an absent 2020, a lot of potential starters only pitched 3-4 innings in a game. One, to get them innings, but also season endurance. Did the minors double up on rotation arms for those extra bullpen innings? Even in the majors, how many wins did Ober NOT HAVE because he couldn't get out of the fifth. Would an opener have helped him? Is the opener really a thing?

The Twins have many failed starters who became good bullpen arms. Notably Nathan (with the Giants), Hawkins, Guardado, Perkins. Hendriks also is one. Zack Litell was a tremendous minor elague starter who has found a home in the pen. Nowadays it is all about if a guy can get thru a batting order once, twice, or maybe even three times. 

The flip-side is how many teams have bullpen arms that pitch multiple innings on consecutive days, or even multiple inning appearances of 3+  with a short outing also in a week.

I thiank back to the sixties with four starters pitching complete games, sometimes coming out of the pen. The whole pitching staff was 10 pitchers max (and sometimes only 12-14 guys used in a season) and a bullpen arm would also pitch 100 innings or more in their 50 apperances.

I'd keep Vallimont in AAA until he masters his control. I can see Duran easily do well in a BP role. Alcala has developed his 3rd pitch and can see him develop in a starter, also I can see the same happen to Duran.