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In 2022, as has been the case several recent seasons, the Twins’ patchwork bullpen was an unmitigated disaster for much of the first half of the season. While their 3.68 bullpen ERA through the end of May looks fine and grades as middle of the pack, the 0.2 fWAR accumulated in that time was dead last in the entire MLB, and the team had blown six of their 13 save opportunities to that point. It was such an embarrassment that the front office was taking questions in every interview about reliever trades on the horizon despite the deadline being months away.
We’ve seen this cycle for two years now where the team insists they can build a bullpen with little investment. In both 2021 and 2022, they made one single somewhat notable relief addition that they saw as a value in Alex Colomé and Emilio Pagán, and in both cases it can be argued that there wasn’t another player as destructive to the team’s success as these two in their respective seasons. In both cases, by season’s end, the Twins had a respectable bullpen. In 2021 it was far too late as the Twins were out of contention. In 2022, the Twins were able to hang around despite countless crippling losses along the way.
In 2023, the Twins have a perfect set of circumstances to come to the conclusion that this cannot happen for a third year in a row. Having lost Carlos Correa and Gio Urshela, the Twins will be without two of their top four hitters in wRC+ from 2022. Some fans continue to cite better health and breakouts from young players to make up this gap, but every projection strongly disagrees. Also consider that while the Twins waited on Correa, just about every other impact free agent found a home elsewhere. The Twins are now left with $20-30m left to spend to get to 2022 levels and no everyday players to spend it on.
The goal now should be straightforward: Improve whatever areas of weakness you can. With a returning bullpen of Duran, Jax, Lopez, Thielbar etc. the Twins should be in better shape in this regard than prior seasons. Still, filler arms such as Trevor Megill have a place, and it’s hard to know what to expect from Jorge Alcala who missed all of 2022 with elbow issues. There are also several intriguing arms remaining on the free agent market.
In true Twins fashion, they could take a flier on a bounceback candidate like Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel blew 5 saves in 2022 and was left off of the Dodgers postseason roster, but his “down” season still consisted of a 3.75 ERA, well over a strikeout per inning, .60 HR/9, and a mid to high 90s fastball. The Twins don’t need Kimbrel to come in and close despite his preference to do so. He may wind up having to take whatever deal he can to reestablish his value, and the Twins could use some upside in case someone like Duran stumbles or misses time.
They could also still use a second left-handed reliever to pair with Thielbar. They could gamble on longtime great Zack Britton who’s thrown just 19 innings the last two seasons but has always been death on lefties. They could also bet on 2022 breakout Matt Moore whose 1.95 ERA in 74 innings was simply dominant.
There are several other situational or high upside arms remaining such as a reunion with Michael Fulmer to match up against right handed heavy lineups. They could throw money at once lockdown relievers Trevor Rosenthal, Corey Knebel, or Alex Reyes. They should reasonably have 1-2 spots in the bullpen pecking order to take a chance or two like this to try to avoid the early season meltdowns we’ve seen so many times.
While none of these arms are sure fire bullpen aces, one thing is for certain: the Twins have a lot of money to spend to get to 2022 levels which should absolutely be reached again. They also have little to spend it on for the rotation or position player side. Given how big of a problem the bullpen has been in recent years, that money would be better spent trying to avoid the yearly early catastrophe’s we’ve grown accustomed to. With how much they’ve lost from the lineup, they may not be able to afford it this year.
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