Knock. Knock. Silence.

Bonnes, I wouldn't do a deal with any of them right now. Buxton needs to play a season without getting hurt, same with Sano. Maybe I'd be down to lock up Rosario, but I doubt he'll cost a ton after next season. Too many unknowns right now to pull the trigger. These guys haven't done what Joe Mauer did when he came up.

I would lock up Buxton and Sano,  Rosario maybe also.  Rosario more because if I chose to trade him later, those cheaper option years could be worth a lot to a small market club.  

I would expect I would want to lock them up for 7 - 8 years(Sano and Buxton), price if somewhere close to reasonable.  Might well put some weight clauses into a Sano contract, but just worry that if we do not sign him longterm, he could be the next David Ortiz.  Plus after next year we will have plenty of salary room.

Yes, they all have 2 years plus of service time. But none of them has shown they can put it together over a full season. You have about a half season of performance to base their value over the next 5 years. Better to wait until next offseason IMO. Better gauge of what they can do by then.

Buxton I would absolutely. I would bring it up with Kepler as well. Rosario is a probable, but it would depend on the years and dollars. Sano, I think, I would put him in the absolutely yes crowd if I see how he looks in spring training after he has (or has not) had the surgery.

Berrios too, maybe right?

I've said this before--the three mentioned in the OP plus Berrios, Kepler and Polanco. All are candidates for long term deals at some point in the next 2-3 years. I'd love it if they were all locked in, but it's easy for me to say what Mr. Pohlad should do with his money.

As expensive as Mauer was, the organization would have been worse off not paying him the money. And I think the team got very good value from Dozier's mid-length deal. Same with Ervin. But there's always risk as we found out with Phil Hughes, and that's why it's a gamble. These six players all show signs of being valuable players, and for that reason it's probably in the best long-term interest of the team to pay long-term money. And don't forget that teams usually insure contracts to give the team relief in case of player injury.

THIS.

Sano and Buxton are probably the first two. Followed by Rosario (who I love and will only get better but an OF is easier to replace than other spots) and Berrios, who has less service time. And then you make it a clean sweep following those guys.

IMO none of them are substantially more expensive after next year, year by year. That is, their first arb year isn’t going to be substantially more after next year than the Twins might be able to sign them for now. And if the Twins wait one more year and still sign them for 5 years, it’s an extra year under control while they are still in their 20s. And even at that point, they would be hitting free agency coming off their prime years.

I am not at all convinced that Sano is a generational type talent. According to some, that’s the kind of payday he’s looking for. He has a LONG way to go in terms of plate discipline to get there. Look at his K rate and BB rates over his career. Not much difference year to year. Same really with HR rate and extra base hit rate. Sure, he’s already a great hitter, an all star level talent if he plays third base. I’m not sure that’s true if he plays first or DH’s from here on. Not every year anyway. Lots of first baseman post an OPS better than .860 every year. He needs to get a lot better for me to be willing to commit long term. Rosario and Buxton need to prove that they can do what they did in the second half for a full season. If they can, they deserve the money.

Ideally, they'd lock up all of Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, and Rosario. Realistically, I think the majority are going to want to test the market. I think the most appealing balance between cost and upside is Buxton. He's had enough struggles so far to give the FO some leverage, though he has performed well enough to certainly justify at least talking about an extension. I don't know, maybe that second fact is enough for him to want to reach free agency as quickly as possible.

In any case, I doubt they'll be able to lock up all of them, given the increasing rarity of pre-arb extensions. If it was my choice, I'd prioritize Buxton.

Lock up Berrios and Buxton for as long as they can.  It would really depend on how much Sano is going to be looking for.  If he wants superstar money then I'd pass as he has yet to stay healthy for a full season and his motivation/determination doesn't seem as high as those two.  I don't think it would take too much to lock Rosario up, so I'd be willing to do a medium length contract with him.  Kepler could probably be signed to a medium length contract as well.

Kepler seems like he's quite similar to Dozier (at the time they signed him to a medium-term deal) in terms of development and promise. That one worked out quite well, though Dozier was far from an established player at the time he signed.

I'd put a reasonable but generous offer on the table for Kepler sometime in the next 18 months and see if they can keep him in Minnesota for another half-decade.

Buxton is the one I would try and lock up for sure.  If he remains solid at the plate other teams will snap him up as soon as they can.  If Rosario is reasonable then I would offer him as well.  Wouldn't mind doing Kepler but having the whole outfield locked up seems overkill.

I know Sano has the potential to be a game changer but his K rate and injury history worry me.  I know he will get better and at the beginning of the year when he was healthy and disciplined at the plate he carried this team.  I just get the feeling he won't be giving the Twins a deal and I am not sure he is someone who can stay healthy.  Tough call on Sano for me.

I agree that this is the year to get deals done if the Twins want any discounts.  If we wait until these guys "prove" themselves the price is going to be much higher to get those later years.  It is a risk but opportunity only knocks once.

My priorities would be Buxton and Rosario. They are my "best bets" for long and successful careers. I love Berrios but the injury risk for SP is pretty high. 

I'd give Buxton guaranteed money over a long-term contract. Load it with incentives for MVP, AS, GG, SS. Say, 6 yrs / $62 million, with a $2M buyout before FA (4 yr / $32 mil guaranteed at that point). I'll take the injury risk and put up with the coulda/woulda/shouldas if he misses a year.  

I want to see more consistent defense and base running with Rosario but his upside is extremely high. He's shown the desire to work on his game. I'd ask for the same contract structure as Buxton. Spotrac has Rosario as a 4-year Arb guy, so 7 years takes him through two years as FA: 7 yrs / $48M, $1M buyout before FA (5/$21M guaranteed). It's risky but the Twins need to take a few chances to build a long-term winner.

Approach Berrios, Sano, Kepler and Polanco after the 2018 season. Health with Sano and injury risk for Berrios are the issues. There are other 2B/SS moving through the system so Polanco isn't a priority right now. Kepler still has to prove he can be an everyday player.

These are difficult calls. IMO, sign them all over the next two years. Odds are good that 4 of 6 will be above-average to elite ballplayers. Better to spread the risk than try to pick the optimal signings. No FA years, less money. No team option, a lot less money.