Are Twins' Third Base Plans for Jose Miranda a Misstep?

  On 2/8/2023 at 2:39 PM, DJL44 said:

I see people use "defensive WAR" and that's always a trigger for me that they're not using the information correctly.

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I don't think what I said is at odds with your deeper look at the numbers.  It seemed unlikely that "good" performance at either location on the diamond could be lurking anywhere inside Miranda's negative aggregate dWAR in 2022.  So I left it at that and didn't bother to go deeper.  (I think we both left out mentioning that dWAR assigns a negative value to each inning as a DH so that definitely clouds the picture except for taking a quick look.)

The fundamental problem with defensive stats is not which tool you choose, but sample size.  Batting stats over the full course of a season are thought to be meaningful, and I'm convinced it's not simply that a full time player shows his abilities during 700 plate appearances, but through a few thousand individual pitches that he sees and uses his judgment and skill on.  Those pitches are what I see as equivalent to fielding chances on defense - Buxton recognizing (or not!) a breaking pitch that's destined to be low and should be laid off is about on a par with tracking a deep fly ball in the gap with the wind blowing (that Byron hauls in with deceptive ease).  Buxton doesn't get thousands of repetitions on defense like he does at bat, because nobody does, but he's good enough that we don't really need defensive stats to appreciate him.

So, I like the analytic approach to things but sometimes the data just isn't there and the eye test needs to hold sway (and I maintain that you can do sound analytics using eye tests and other coarse forms of information gathering when statistically reliable samples aren't possible).  Defense falls into that category for me, and I use any numbers I see as only a first-order guide - I think you did similarly when suggesting a 20-run range for Miranda's work last year.  That doesn't mean you can't glean tentative opinions from small data samples - we didn't need thousands of pitches to determine that Pedro Florimon would be a bad hitter in the majors and you'd be hard pressed to find a 150 PA consecutive sample from the Florimonster that could fool you into thinking otherwise, nor did anyone need to suggest a caveat that his offense might actually have been 10 runs better than his numbers showed.  Ditto for defensive stats - you can get some value from them - but they are inherently more prone to have little blips, such as a young 3Bman having stats that fluctuate or make him seem better at 3rd than at 1st over the course of far less than a season at either spot.

Bottom line for me still is, Miranda's not yet 25 and he might have it within him to become a positive contributor to a contending team at third.  His uninspiring stats in 2022 are worrisome but not enough for me to give up on him, and we have the springtime "feel good" story involving Correa's term "sexy" to suggest there could be substance to that hope.  Every player is arriving at Ft Myers in the best shape of his life, after all - they can't print that in the newspaper if it isn't true! 

  On 2/9/2023 at 2:46 AM, DocBauer said:

I KNOW it's slightly off topic, but when I read this, I couldn't help but reflect on the current 40 man roster and many of the top 10-20 prospects and just speculate about the Twins immediate future timeline. 

Position player wise, there are some givens such as Buxton, Vazquez, Jeffers, Correa, AND Miranda. I LOVE Polanco, but not sure I can make him  "given" right now. While we still have to see better health...doesn't the worm have to turn at some point?...both Larnach and Kirilloff have been TOP prospects for a reason. And they've both looked very good in SSS when on the field. Lewis has already shown how good he might be at ANY position if his "smaller" injury is over and done. Lee looks like the real deal. How can anyone argue that Julien doesn't look like a future ML player? The jury is still out on Wallner and Martin. But the potential of Martin is real...OF and table setter and forget him being a 25+HR hitter for now...and Wallner needs some defensive improvement,  but the bat has the potential to play at the ML level. He showed growth week by week and month by month in 2022. He didn't look out of place in his debut. He's got a chance. And I'm not even going to mention Celestino getting most, or all, of 2023 at AAA to refine his game and get back on track as a possibly good 4th OF offering.

Position player wise, this team could have a very talented team now, in 2024 and beyond, and cost controlled, even with a few question marks.

And I'm deliberately ignoring pitching as the OP is about Miranda, and the player roster. 

I restate, does it matter if Miranda can be a solid 3B and potentially be replaced by Lewis or Lee in the next year or so? No. Hell, someone might be traded. And if not, he can be outstanding as a 3B/1B/DH. That's not a bad thing! Do I want to see Polanco, one of my favorite players, moved? No. But it could happen in the next year or so because of the young talent knocking on the door.

It's NEVER a bad thing when you appear to have "too much talent".

 

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Amen to all of that. 

Young players like Miranda, Kirilloff and Larnach will not become givens with a bowling pin mentality to roster construction. If Miranda struggling at 3B and needing to play 1B knocks Kirilloff over like a bowling pin because playing time becomes this impossible issue. We will severely handicap ourselves reaching too much talent. 

Those 10 to 20 prospects that you mention will never get here if you can't figure out how to make an adjustment to Miranda or adjustments to the 10 to 20 prospects.  

We will never get to "Too much talent" if we look at Kepler and Gallo on the same roster and think a trade has to happen because you have too much talent.