Jim Pohlad Wants Carlos Correa Back. Will Twins Do What It Takes?

Of course he does.  He probably wants Mauer back too.  It is easy to say these things.  But then we are in the verbiage portion of the year. 

Of course he is on board. Carlos just needs to sign a 4 year $80 million deal and JP will be right there to welcome him back. Jim Pohlad talks non sense. Only a fool believes what he is saying. 

Last year Pohlad said there was plenty of money to sign both Buxton and Berrios to long term deals.  A few days later Berrios was traded.  I respect the Pohlad family for keeping the Twins somewhat competitive and giving fans stability in having a major league baseball franchise.  Their team payroll is about in the middle of the pack compared to other teams.  Maybe increase it some?  Yes.  Also maybe use what's available more wisely.  Throwing all that money to Correa over those many years is foolish if there isn't enough money to pay others.  Bottom line is I take everything he says with a big grain of salt.  

Lip service for sure.  Time of the year where kids can dream that Santa money bags gives them a present they want under the tree.  Correa will slow play the FA market till Boras gets him what he wants.  I don't expect any movement for top guys till Judge breaks the bank.  

The Twins are not going to fall into a discount from Carlos Correa. However, there is a chance that Correa signs early and bypasses what may be a frenzy if the Twins offer 8/$300 now.

Just an aside. 

Given how this season has gone for Houston, and the remarkable post season of Jeremy Pena, I wonder how Correa feels about all that.  Any regrets? And how will it impact his negotiations as a free agent, if at all?

33 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Last year Pohlad said there was plenty of money to sign both Buxton and Berrios to long term deals.  A few days later Berrios was traded.  I respect the Pohlad family for keeping the Twins somewhat competitive and giving fans stability in having a major league baseball franchise.  Their team payroll is about in the middle of the pack compared to other teams.  Maybe increase it some?  Yes.  Also maybe use what's available more wisely.  Throwing all that money to Correa over those many years is foolish if there isn't enough money to pay others.  Bottom line is I take everything he says with a big grain of salt.  

I am really surprised so few people examine the side of this you have brought up.  Obviously, paying 25% of the budget to one player makes it very difficult to payout for other players.  That's why reams simply don't do it. 

Somehow it gets ignored that the twins have below average revenue.  Take a look at any team with average or below average revenue.  How are they constructed.  The successful teams draft well and trading established players for prosects is as big as drafting them.   They hold on to their prospects.  You will find very few established players acquired for prospects.

Below average revenue teams also very rarely spend over league average so hoping ownership is going to take it out of their pockets is not a wish likely to be granted.  Detroit had a couple years.  I am interested to see 2022 revenues and see where SanDiego is in terms of revenue because they are spending over average.  

Bottom line is building a winner through big dollar free agents is a losing strategy for an average revenue team.  We didn't break 500 with him.  Trout / Ohtani didn't make the Angels a winner and spending $500M on Seager / Semien didn't make Texas a winner.  I will take Lewis or Lee at SS and $35M to spend on a top of the rotation starter over Correa.  Of course, these players could play other positions.  How much do we gain with Lewis or Lee at 3B over Miranda?   That's why Houston did not sign correa.  Pena is moist valuable at SS and so is Lewis or Lee.

I would say its dead in the water and just PR  to the fans and season ticket holders  ...

Why would he want to spend big on a long term shortstop  when we supposedly  have  prospects almost ready to fill the position  , they had there chance last year to sign him long term and gave him 3 years with  opt outs after the first year  ...  

Never have I heard JP say he wants a winning caliber baseball team since the argument of a new stadium  ... 

We have the talent to exceed and contend but are held back with the FO's and managers plan ( Plain and Simple they lack the leadership and focus on strategy  to play the game ) ....

The Donaldson signing  was a head scratcher to me after the bomba squad of 2019 , did we need a hitter , NO  , we needed pitching   , the Correa signing allowed us to dump Donaldsons contract and sign Correa and let correa go after 1 season and the twins save money on Donaldsons contract in the long term  ...

That's my plan and I'm sticking to it  ...

49 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Bottom line is building a winner through big dollar free agents is a losing strategy for an average revenue team.  We didn't break 500 with him.  Trout / Ohtani didn't make the Angels a winner and spending $500M on Seager / Semien didn't make Texas a winner.  I will take Lewis or Lee at SS and $35M to spend on a top of the rotation starter over Correa.  Of course, these players could play other positions.  How much do we gain with Lewis or Lee at 3B over Miranda?   That's why Houston did not sign correa.  Pena is moist valuable at SS and so is Lewis or Lee.

While I agree that trying to win with just free agents doesn't really work, there are reasonable expectations for a salary budget that include a $!60 million number. The Twins are at an interesting point where there are players near ready even as there are others players nearing the end of their time in Minnesota. Players like Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, Celestino, Gordon, Martin, Wallner, Lee, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Duran, Alcala, Moran, Jax, Henriquez, and maybe more are controlled and inexpensive. Guys like Polanco, Urshela, Kepler, Gray, Maeda, Lopez, and Mahle are potentially in their final year with the Twins. Arraez is inexpensive and could be around for several more years. Only Buxton and Dobnak are signed for more than next season if one declines options. This is an opportunity to explore a few free agents and look at possible trades. I'm ok with a direction that may see budgets decline toward $100 million if the talent level and athleticism is increased along with pushing a more exciting brand of baseball (fundamentals, willingness to advance more than one base at a time, etc.). The Twins could sign a pitcher like Rodon and also add Haniger as well as Correa due to the flexible nature of the next 2-4 years. It will be interesting to see what direction the team takes in the next month.

Talk is cheap Jim.  Put your money where your mouth is and make us all believers.  

If you have some cash left over, some relievers and a good starter would be nice.  I'd throw in a catcher too.

34 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

While I agree that trying to win with just free agents doesn't really work, there are reasonable expectations for a salary budget that include a $!60 million number. The Twins are at an interesting point where there are players near ready even as there are others players nearing the end of their time in Minnesota. Players like Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, Celestino, Gordon, Martin, Wallner, Lee, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Duran, Alcala, Moran, Jax, Henriquez, and maybe more are controlled and inexpensive. Guys like Polanco, Urshela, Kepler, Gray, Maeda, Lopez, and Mahle are potentially in their final year with the Twins. Arraez is inexpensive and could be around for several more years. Only Buxton and Dobnak are signed for more than next season if one declines options. This is an opportunity to explore a few free agents and look at possible trades. I'm ok with a direction that may see budgets decline toward $100 million if the talent level and athleticism is increased along with pushing a more exciting brand of baseball (fundamentals, willingness to advance more than one base at a time, etc.). The Twins could sign a pitcher like Rodon and also add Haniger as well as Correa due to the flexible nature of the next 2-4 years. It will be interesting to see what direction the team takes in the next month.

I have looked at Forbes profit estimates many times over the years in an attempt to determine the operating costs for the twins and similar teams.  (defined as non-player costs) The Twins Operating costs looks to be a little over $100M in recent years.  All of the teams operating costs have increased with many subject matter experts (ie analytics)  The cardinals have added 100 people according to one report. 

A $160M Payroll would cost around $180M after benefits.  Therefore, break-even around $290M looks about right with a $160M payroll and they are not going to run the team at break-even.   If they were really on the brink, it might happen but they have not been in a position that one more player would put them over the top in a long time.   

Correa will sign with a team in a state with no income tax. The Twins are out of the running.

42 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

A $160M Payroll would cost around $180M after benefits.  Therefore, break-even around $290M looks about right with a $160M payroll and they are not going to run the team at break-even.   If they were really on the brink, it might happen but they have not been in a position that one more player would put them over the top in a long time.   

Accepted. I see more or less the same figures yet we really do not have exact numbers.

The Twins face somewhat of a challenge due to declining attendance and a general loss of interest in their product. While I'm willing to see what happens at a payroll below $120 million, a jump this year to around $155M that may create interest and improve numbers in seats would be offset by a decrease in payroll in the next 2-3 years as players come off the rolls (Kepler, Gray, Urshela). The main issue is that the team looks stagnant to some extent and I'm hoping for some movement to see a more watchable game from the Twins. FWIW, I don't ever turn away, but maybe I should.

1 hour ago, djvang said:

Correa will sign with a team in a state with no income tax.

Preposterous. This will have no effect whatsoever on his decision. First, we all know that this affects only about half of his earnings. Players pay income tax based on where games are played. Second, if the highest offer exceeds the second highest offer by even just a little that makes up for any difference in taxes. Third, the team itself and how it is expected to perform is a high priority, if not the highest priority, for almost all free agents. Fourth, there are only 5 teams located in a state with no income tax: Miami, Tampa Bay, Houston, Texas, and Seattle. I don't think any of those teams would be considered a likely destination for Correa.

3 hours ago, chinmusic said:

Just an aside. 

Given how this season has gone for Houston, and the remarkable post season of Jeremy Pena, I wonder how Correa feels about all that.  Any regrets? And how will it impact his negotiations as a free agent, if at all?

I would expect that Correa is totally at peace with the situation. He has to be very aware of Pena's skill level and the difference in salary between the two of them. I'm sure he realized long ago that this is how he would leave the Astros.

I believe Pohlad to be sincere. His statement of Boras being an aggressive agent means to me that Pohlad believes that Correa would have been close to sign if not for him. But because Boras is aggressive Pohlad believes he has a chance to sign Correa because the market could be more competitive than last year.

Correa is a great mentor, he had taken Pena under his wing and Pena is as good a SS because of this. He has taken Miranda under his wing and I'm expecting a jump in Miranda's defense. He can help all our young INFers. Other long term big bucks SS don't fit here as well as Correa. IF Andrus & Iglesia are our short term solution, we need to try harder to sign Correa. 

Basically no one of value will sign before Judge so it'll be a long off season for Correa.

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Accepted. I see more or less the same figures yet we really do not have exact numbers.

The Twins face somewhat of a challenge due to declining attendance and a general loss of interest in their product. While I'm willing to see what happens at a payroll below $120 million, a jump this year to around $155M that may create interest and improve numbers in seats would be offset by a decrease in payroll in the next 2-3 years as players come off the rolls (Kepler, Gray, Urshela). The main issue is that the team looks stagnant to some extent and I'm hoping for some movement to see a more watchable game from the Twins. FWIW, I don't ever turn away, but maybe I should.

I think you make a very good point here in terms of needing to shake things up a bit.  What makes that really tough is we have so many unknowns with great upside that it may require some patience.  One the position players side ... Will Lewis make it back mid-year.  Will Kirilloff's wrist be OK?  Can Miranda play an adequate 3B.  Larnach looked great at times.  Will he adapt to this level?  Is Wallner the answer?  Are Julien and Martin the next Miranda type breakout?  That's a lot of unresolved questions.  However, those guys getting a chance and working out is a far more effective way to build a winner.

On the pitching side, we are going to lose two top of the rotation guys next year.  I saw a big difference with Ober's new slider and Ryan had a good year but we don't want to be back to 2020/21 using retreads.  Winder is a question mark.  Will Paddack be back sometime next year.  What are we going to get the all-start Lopez was with Baltimore or the mediocre guy we got after the trade deadline.  Are Varland and SWR the answer.  They need to get in to the mix this year.  Hopefully, that could be part of shaking things up that could be done on the fly. 

The biggest question ... Should we put Duran in the rotation.  Now is the time if they are going to give it a shot.  Figure out if he takes one of those pitching vacancies next year.  If it does not pan out they could put him back in the pen and work on transitioning Varland and SWR later this year.

My shake-up would be to try Duran in the rotation, and I would trade one of Arraez or Polanco if a good return could be had.  I say this knowing major established leaguers don't often get traded for other established major leaguers.  Tampa has done great trading those types of players for MLB ready or near ready talent.  One of Polanco / Arraez is your 2B and Gordon / Martin or Julien are the back-ups.  I also trade Kepler and bring in Hannigar and another back of the BP arm.

3 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Of the states that have no state income tax … and everyone still pays federal income tax … that would mean he would have a choice of 5 teams in 3 states. Further to this argument, they pay state income tax in every state they play a game. If you are trying to say that he won’t sign in Minnesota because of the state income tax, then he won’t sign with any team in California, either, where the state income tax is higher. And New York isn’t that far behind. Not to mention the cost of living is way higher in both California and New York. If you combine income tax and sales tax, NY, IL and CA are more expensive. If this is your argument, it’s a wonder that the best teams continually aren’t in FL, TX and WA. Taxes are a non-issue in signing a player. Salary, benefits and incentives are.

The only thing that stands between signing Correa or not, is money offered.

You know, it's funny; the article referred to was the Charlie Walters article, and even at the time I read that article I thought to myself this is just Charlie being Charlie.  Scott Boras could care less about a state income tax over a 7-10 year contract period; it probably doesn't even enter his head.  Anyway, as the poet once said, "it is to laugh".  

As for the article itself, 3 or 4 generic quotes from JP is so meaningless I blew it off the minute I moved on to the rest of the article.  That is also textbook Pohlad; making everyone think he is doing something, without really committing himself to a bloody thing.  Between him, Bell, Falvine, and Rocco, I have never heard so many people say so much and mean so little in a lifetime of watching this team.  Makes me pine for the days when old Calvin would have a couple of drinks and get near a live mic.  Good or bad, at least you got the skinny.  ?

I think it depends on what you think with Lewis, Lee, Miller and others.  Is one of them going to be able to man SS in the long run (at least 6 years).  That decision is what is going to make the Twins offseason come together.  If the answer is yes, then using the Correa money on pitching is the way to go.  If not, you have to sign a SS and hope 2 - 3 of the young pitchers come through.  Next year will be more normal, but Twins need to put a better product on the field to increase attendance back to where it should be.  

Pitching still wins, did you see what the Astros bullpen did over the course of the playoffs, that is how the Twins should play it, hope the young pitchers get there in the pen, and sign a closer or two very good relievers to multi year deals. 

I like seeing a lot of the comments not trusting what is said. I also agree, I am sure he wants Correa back, who wouldn't? But, DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT! The Twins picked up the option on Sonny Gray, that is a good move. Keep those good moves going; if you want Correa, then be aggressive and go after him. I know his agent is tough and aggressive, but don't let him bully you. Make your best offer, with the caveat that the deal expires in 24 hours and then we will move on to the next player. Then, follow through on that. After all, if it is your best offer, then there is no sense continuing to wait on someone who is only going to use you as leverage. We have a lot of holes and can't afford waiting on one guy again this offseason while other players that fit our needs are taken by other teams.

This is the exact thing an ownership group tells a columnist before they make a "competitive" offer. We'll see if its anywhere near what Correa expects. 

I would put the odds of Correa coming back to the Twins at about 15%.  They will make an effort, possibly a real effort, but some other team will likely overpay to get him.

Everybody "wants" Correa, but he is chasing the dollar.  His end of the year comments showed that.

I think the Twins already know where they stand on Correa and if they are truly in the running.  Everything being said publicly by the organization fan appeasement. 

26 minutes ago, ashbury said:

To paraphrase Al Campanis, Calvin Griffith lacked the necessities to be a modern sports team owner.

Hell yeah, Calvin would make Dan Snyder look like a peach.  ?  But you always knew where he stood.  I never know a bloody thing this collection is even saying, much less thinking.