Is The Twins System Broken?

So instead of another thread where we continually debate whether the glass is half-full or half-empty, here's one debating whether the glass is badly cracked or completely shattered.

Knock yourselves out.  For those who are planning to tell me "if you don't like it start your own thread", I would but lately they all seem to end up in the same place anyway,  It's kind of like listening to Reusse except without the hilarious cackling.  Extending Kurt Suzuki, Jason Bartlett, I suppose Mauer and Ortiz and the bullpen can only be a few posts away.

If anyone out there has a baseball glove, lives in northern Illinois, and wants to play catch, I'm available.  Have a great day.

  Quote

 

Minnesota might be one of the organizations that is furthest behind when it comes to using analytics to drive front office decision-making. Under the Terry Ryan regime, the way teams are built is through player development and acquisitions.

At first reading, this doesn't make sense. All teams are built through player development and acquisitions, no?

It seems like that first point is really to critique how much analytics (and what kind of analytics) feed into the development and acquisition processes. I think that's a good point, but I'm also not sure it's the same point the rest of the article is making.

Entering 2016, the Twins have plenty of positions that need improvement. The rotation is average at best. There are too many players available for 3B and, at least to start the season, not enough competent OF. A veteran RP would be nice. The young players have yet to reach their prime or, in some cases, show their worth.

There has been almost no attempt to improve the roster because Ryan doesn't wheel and deal. He has no desire to make big trades. I would like to see a different GM at the end of the season, someone who is willing and able to make the moves necessary to compete at the highest level. (Actually, I would've liked to have seen a new GM last year)

But is the FO broke? Hardly. The Twins record improved by 13 wins last year. They have a top-five prospect list. There is system depth at almost every position. Ryan acquired a C, a position where depth was an issue. He convinced the Pohlads to take a flyer on a Korean power hitter. The greatest outrages are Sano's move to the OF (a legit argument, IMO) and the need for a fourth RP (a lot of angst for maybe 0.5 WAR improvement). The Twins are not a pile of disparate pieces.

Like it or not, Ryan has a clear plan to build from within. Whether it will result in a World Series win is an open question.  It will probably be one more year before the Twins are even ready to compete for the division.

Under a best case, a different GM could have made a couple of moves to improve chances this year - at some risk. So what? It's time for Spring Training. We have an interesting roster taking to the fields. A time to set a little bit of cynicism aside and enjoy a young team with a lot of potential.

We'll get the chance to see several young power arms arrive to help the bullpen this year. Berrios will arrive. Plenty of young position players will be worth watching as they develop in 2016. I'm excited for the season, the chance to see these youngsters take the field. Why? Because the FO is not broke. The Twins are a team on the rise. Let Cincinnati bring out the pitchforks for their FO.

  On 2/23/2016 at 6:40 AM, Seth Stohs said:

I'll disagree on both counts. Terry Ryan will always be a scout, and trust his scouts, but he's also said to listen to the stats guys and every other piece of information he has available to him. He's a very smart guy.

 

Also, Dave St. Peter doesn't need to know the baseball side of the operation. He needs to run the program. Baseball background has nothing to do with that job. 

I agree, Seth.  I don't remember the guy's name, but just a few weeks ago there was one of the people from the Twins analytic departments here responding to posts. 

And quite frankly, isn't any team's "system" [with the exception of those in MAJOR markets] really about player development?  I don't track all of the Twins MiLB leagues, but isn't true that there are 1-2 guys at each level showing MLB potential?

You can be an excellent scout, and even listen to the stats guys. But that doesn't make you a good, or bad GM. I really believe Ryan knows a ball player when he sees one. But do you adjust your evaluations to the game and your needs. Ryan is very late to the game with power arms. And when the game was being played with big bats and lots of HR's we were the Piranhas! And now that it's switched to pitching and elite defense we are the next '27 Yankees! I wore my powder blue leisure suit to work today. I am either behind the times, or a trend setter. Whether he actually is a excellent scout, or a great GM, the bottom line is the results do not support that. I am very glad he didn't trade youth, or lock into long term contracts with a FA this year. But I am not sure if this was by design, or simply the function of a broken clock being right twice a day!

I thought the premise of the article seemed promising--do the Twins have any against the grain, Moneyball strategy at all?  But then it just states the BP decided the Twins don't, and moved onto a rehashing of current events.

I would have been interested to hear about how BP defined a MB strategy and how they came to the conclusion the Twins don't have one, even if it is the ol' college reliever-to-starter theory.

If the premise of the article is: the Twins "System" (definition please, I am getting the impression this is referring to the way in which they count cards while playing blackjack, in which case grouchy uncle Terry and his 'gut feelings' would certainly be seen unfavorably by the Harvard Math grads at BP) is broken, as evidenced by their lack of developed prospects…uggh, long sentence fail.

Arguments that throw out Sano, or top draft picks, because those are gimmes, seem pretty biased, as do ones who give little credibility to recently graduated players like Rosario or Duffy because they are unproven or something.  

Terry Ryan doesn't seem willing to risk winnable division titles to win World Series. By that, I mean he will not mess with a roster of good-enough players to bring in higher-upside players. Thus Nolasco can block Berrios, for example.

OTOH, Bill Smith did seem willing to take that risk, and look where that got us.

Winning a championship with the current leadership is going to take some dumb luck, like finding a Tyler Duffey who is better against the majors than the minors (assuming that lasts)

Whoever was influencing player decisions in 2015 was doing something correctly. The Twins gave up 77 fewer runs in 2015 than in 2014 which is why they improved 13 wins. On defense, four players had defensive wins above replacement values of minus 1 or worse in 2014. Of those, only Oswaldo Arcia was back with the club in 2015 and he didn't come close to playing enough to be his usual calamity in the outfield. Result - overall defensive wins above replacement for the Twins improved 5 games.  On the pitching mound, Twins pitchers get credit for the remaining 8 additional wins as Ervin Santana,and Kevin Jepsen were acquired, Kyle Gibson's role increased, Tyler Duffy emerged, and Trevor May, Tommy Milone and Mike Pelfrey pitched more effectively. Also, Kevin Correia, Anthony Swarzak, and Sam Deduno passed into Twins history and pure good luck limited Ricky Nolasco to only 37 innings.

I for one do not disrespect Ryan, he is a baseball lifer! But the results for his tenure do in no way indicate he is a successful GM when using W/L as a criteria. If you use the "successful business model" as a criteria, he is a raving genius. I guess it's in the eye of the beholder. If you view the team as a sports entity whose goal is to win games, and build a consistent talent pool, or if you want it to be run like one of the Pohlads car dealerships. Either or, it's a signifantly different mindset!

This is not an easy question to answer and I, like most of you, lack all the information needed.  I can say that I am bothered by TR blocking young players with older acquisitions who have no upside and then signing them to contracts beyond the immediate need.  This has happened numerous times and is not a good way to build the roster.   

But where are our sustained runs to excellence.  We have had three series in 55 years which is better than some teams, but what I find frustrating are the close but no chance years when we would not make the move to get us out of round one.  

We have a poor record of developing pitching staffs and continue to lack that ACE despite the fact that it was Morris, Viola, and Kaat that made the World Series possible.  I never want us pursuing the over age veteran who gets the long term contracts like Pujols, but I also do not want the mediocre two-four year contracts that we have had since TR came in.

We can say that Nolasco might still become something, but even so it was a bad contract.  

What this adds up to is a system that is not broken, but it is not good.  Only Seth and others who follow the minors can know if we are good in moving players along, getting them ready for the bigs, making significant progress.

We can look at trades and signings and hold our noses, but the minor leagues is a different issue. 

The only true judgment will be in 2018 - are we on our way to being a real contender for the Series?