Is Homer Bailey the Next Martin Perez?

I'd prefer Gibson over Bailey (or Hill, who can't be trusted) but I have zero interest in Perez. I was fine with bringing Gibson back, but understood that he might need a fresh start considering his baggage in MN (years as a tease, the recent injury struggles, etc). And I get not throwing money at him while you're trying to land Wheeler, Bumgarner, or Ryu (all better pitchers). But replacing him with Homer Bailey is thoroughly uninspiring.

 

The commitment is relatively light and it's better to have a guy like him with some potential in place for the start of the season over needing 2 guys to step up from internal rookie-type options, but it's hard to pretend this is a good option, more like a least-bad one.

 

Now, if they sign Donaldson it's a successful off-season anyways, just maybe not the A-plan. But if they can't get Donaldson, they really need to make a move on the trade market.

 

From 2015-2018 his WHIP was 1.68. Last year he reduced it to 1.3 facing a lot of bad teams in August.

Someone you need in October along with Rich Hill.

 

Um, in August of 2019, Bailey faced the Brewers, the Cubs, the Giants, the Royals, and the Yankees twice.  Combined win percentage of those teams was .529, which is the equivalent of an 86 win team.  Only one of the bunch was truly bad, one was pretty good, and the Yankees were obviously great.

I would have preferred someone younger like Wood or Walker on a 1+1 deal as the upside is much greater, IMO, though the floor might be lower if they just can't make it back.

 

Which leads to the premise of the

OP discussing Bailey vs Perez. Bailey had success for a period if time before injury derailed his career. He had a bounce back in 2019 and finished strong, someone you can't say about my preferred and previously stated options.

 

Bailey has also already had some career success whereas Perez really hadn't until the first months of last season.

 

In short, there is every reason to believe Bailey, IF actually performing well/solidly should maintain and not fall off a cliff the way Perez did.

 

Concur on paragraphs 1 and 2.

But IMO even signing Donaldson, or trading for a starter cant rescue this off season. Better, for sure, but they've already failed.

 

That's a pretty limited view, and frankly I don't want a front office that can only see one path to success. Donaldson is an elite player, a former MVP who improves the team substantially and would do a lot to guard against regression for the offense while making a big improvement to the defense. Yes, he's not the elite pitcher we all wanted, but we're not the only team who whiffed on landing that impact starting pitching.

 

Bailey's a stop-gap, insurance against not making a trade for a better player, IMHO. Or Thorpe/Graterol not being ready to counted on as starters. He's just a guy and we're rolling the dice on our excellent pitching coach being able to get something out of him, at least until Pineda is back or Hill is available again. It's not the worst bet in the world and it's a move to keep the floor from falling out, and as I've noted before: a significant aspect to season-long success is keeping innings (or ABs, or time in the field) out of the hands of terrible players. 

 

No, Pineda is on the ineligible list until his suspension ends. So we can be at 41 counting him, Bailey, and Hill -- no need to remove anyone yet.

I sit corrected

 

This was the largest and best free agent starting pitching class in years, maybe decades. They had one, huge, glaring, weakness.

So far, they've added a number five starter, and a guy who won't be healthy until July.

Would you can that a success?

They also signed Odo and Pineda and we still have 2 months left. So far they have signed the free agent pitchers Gleeman had ranked as the 6th,8th and 13th best available. Something like that. Plus wherever he had Bailey ranked. Hill was at 13 because of availability concerns but if healthy he will pitch as well as the best on the list. One more big acquisition, either Donaldson or a trade for a pitcher and we are looking pretty good. Hard to be patient though.

 

This was the largest and best free agent starting pitching class in years, maybe decades. They had one, huge, glaring, weakness.

So far, they've added a number five starter, and a guy who won't be healthy until July.

Would you can that a success?

 

One thing all free agents have in common is free-will. They sign where they want to, and not always for top dollar. I can't fault Falvine for that. They made offers that weren't accepted. 

I'm pretty sure the bar for Bailey to stay in the rotation past May 10th is considerably lower than that. But you might be right by July.

I think the bar will be set by the other 4 pitchers. If they are out pitching him I think they stay in the rotation.

This is my primary fear (I'm almost single issue minded on the subject) and it drives almost all of my personal viewpoints on roster construction that I mention frequently.

 

I never want to see a Logan Morrison situation ever again. I mean ever, ever, ever... because it is completely pointless and counter-productive. You can't let a player playing that badly play everyday without seeking a better alternative.

 

I consider Martin Perez to be the latest example of Logan Morrison so I don't believe we are out of the woods yet but we need to get out of those woods immediately.

 

Any team that allows a below par performer to play everyday not only kills your chances for winning in the current season but it also kills your chances for future development, which kills your chances of crawling out of the hole created by sub-par play with a longer term future year possibility in hand, which in turn slows your rebuild to the point of waiting longer to being competitive again.

 

In my opinion, this is the primary reason our Twins have taken (WAYYY) too long to return to competitive baseball and now that we are competitive again... it is still important to ensure that we remain competitive for a longer window.

 

The primary reason for our lengthy stay in the doldrums has been rewarding of average to below average performance with everyday jobs. Settling for average to below average performance and not seeking improvement from other options.

 

I support the right for the front office to add anybody they think can do the job and give them a job. However, once handed the job, they must perform or lose that job. It matters not what the past track record is or the amount of money you are paying him. If they think Homer Bailey is the guy, I will support that decision just like I did when they thought Martin Perez was the guy last off-season.

 

My support ends based on performance. With Martin Perez so fresh in my memory... my caution flag is already raised with Homer Bailey because the front office demonstrated a stubbornness trying to make Martin Perez work. Neither, 7 million dollars or spin rates on a spreadsheet should allow Bailey to continue with sub-par numbers without an alternative sought.

 

It's important this year. We have multiple minor league pitchers on the cusp and we can't be looking for the next Homer Bailey next year to replace the Homer Bailey of this year. One or two of those minor league pitchers on the cusp need to be sufficiently auditioned for inclusion on next years roster. Who will it be?

 

We gotta find out.

I feel part of the reason Perez got such a long leash was based on hope from his early season performance, and maybe a feeling of not putting too much pressure on too many of the kids at once.

 

Where I feel positive that they won't continue to play someone not performing is moving on from Parker, and others, in the pen, or embracing Arraez daily over Schoop. I hope I'm right, but I think we may be moving beyond the "pay 'em so play 'em" mantra.

If we get to the trade deadline and Bailey is a better than league average pitcher as Perez did last year I will be pleased.

 

Of course Perez was at an age where he was in the prime of his career so there may have been more reason for encouragement and too much patience with his two awful starts to begin August.

 

Morrison was nowhere near a league average player nor was he 28.

 

Perez was a poor pitcher after the trade deadline but articles about his fall came well into the second half. Andrew Thames wrote one for TD in August 11 and szymborski and Fangraphs had one August 12. The Twins might have pulled the plug August 12 but this was not the season long struggle of Morrison.

 

I don’t see that comparison and I really hope we get league average pitching from Bailey that we saw from Perez through July.

“I can’t put a number or where a guy is or what that means, but we’re going to target impact pitching,” Twins CBO Derek Falvey said. “What that looks like? I can’t predict that today, just because I don’t know how exactly the market’s going to play out through the course of the winter. But I can tell you it’s highly likely that we’re going to spend a lot of time focused on: ‘How do we acquire on that side of the ball?'”

 

There is more to the quote as well that he mentions free agents and the trade front. Since when does targeting mean.....we will for sure sign one of the top 5 free agent pitchers or consider ourselves failures?

How many times can I hit the LIKE button before I get in trouble or my phone blows up on me?

 

Understand frustration, disappointment, optimism, etc. But the ENTIRE context of the quote, what has happened, and what might yet happen, all have to be considered.

 

This is directed at nobody in particular, just my own thoughts and commentary. The quote never stated any guarantee one of the top 4-5 FA was going to be brought on board no matter what. In fact, to me, the first step, and what I'm extremely grateful happened, was bringing Oddo and Pineda back. They are impact guys.

 

Now, I wanted more. I still want more. But I think any disappointment I feel is level headed in how things have played out so far.

Winning the division with Berrios, Pineda, Odorizzi, Bailey, and Hill is easy. winning a playoff series is impossible.

That would be my guess as well. They wanted to get Perez back to April/May performance.

 

However, that can be done from the back of the bullpen while he works on stuff.

 

As for the kids and pressure. I sure hope not because it is pressure now or pressure later (like in the playoffs). The kids get thrown to the Wolves as far as I'm concerned.

 

If they need a pressure adjustment... start the adjustment immediately.

Agree 100%. But reflecting back, Gibson was beginning to have issues as well. And 1 kid in the rotation at a time may have been their thinking.

 

But I agree, you give the kid of choice a shot, or you don't. (Did I just channel Yoda there?) When 2020 rolls around, and there is opportunity arises early on with Pineda out, I hope they just "go for it" with their youngster of choice. Maybe even piggyback a couple of them.

 

This was the largest and best free agent starting pitching class in years, maybe decades. They had one, huge, glaring, weakness.

So far, they've added a number five starter, and a guy who won't be healthy until July.

Would you can that a success?

The thing is they've had since mid season of 2017 to address this weakness. What have we gotten since then? A trade for Jaimie Garcia. A Martin Perez signing. The signing now of Bailey and an injured Hill. The best they have done was to sign Lance Lynn as a last resort for him. This is failure at its worst.

 

Winning the division with Berrios, Pineda, Odorizzi, Bailey, and Hill is easy. winning a playoff series is impossible.

We wish it would be easy channing but I'm not so sure it will be quite as smooth sailing as last season. Cleveland has a much better rotation than we do and they have Lindor, Ramirez and some other solid players. CWS will not be easy wins this season either, not like the past. 3rd place would not be a surprise in the least to me. 

Odorizzi and Pineda seem like a couple of other arms worth mentioning in this list.

Why do so many discount keeping these guys in the fold. Baffles me!

Why do so many discount keeping these guys in the fold. Baffles me!

Probably because Odo had a career year that arguably trailed off towards his career marks, and Pineda was suspended, is suspended, and wasn't all that good early. Better than nothing. But even the front office isn't trying to sell that retaining those 2 is what they had in mind.