Introducing Randy Dobnak’s New and Improved Slider

Pitch 160 innings, sub 3.00 era and win 12 games.

I said this in another thread but my main issue with Dobnak was his inability to strike guys out and get in long battles with batters fouling off pitches.  He generates plenty of weak contact and if can strike more guys out along with that he seems destined to be an elite pitcher.  I don't know if the new pitch will hold or work the needed magic but if it does I think it will be hard to keep Randy out of the starting rotation. 

If he does prove he has it then maybe they should consider a six man rotation especially since Maeda has been prone to getting soft later in the year and even Berrios has struggled later in the year they need to protect Shoemaker so maybe a 6 man quality rotation is the best way to keep guys healthy and productive over the long season.  He has to prove this is for real first IMO but if he continues to pitch that well I think they should consider it.

Dobnak is not only a great story, but his milb numbers and 70+ IP at the ML level should provide optimism. His biggest problem, as Dman pointed out, and something I've pointed out previously, is too many "battles" with hitters. He seems to have everything to be a solid 4-5-6 pitcher and have a successful to very successful career. What's missing is eliminating those 6-8 AB outs. A better defense behind him helps as he is a ground out pitcher. But once in a while you need that SO or a couple more wezl pop ups.

What's crazy is this recent adjustment is only weeks old. Johnson magic? Maybe. But Dobber is pretty heady, if you haven't figured that out already. And he's ready for whatever. He may or may not be a fixture in the rotation as a 3-5 SP option.

I am crazy excited about the future of Duran, Balazovic and Canterino, amongst others. And I am SUPER excited about Thorpe if he gets the 4th option year because he can spend a full year between teams finally getting his stuff together. But from what we have already seen from Dobber in 77IP, imagine how good he could be with a better slider to go along with his sinker and control?

Dobber's stuff always seems to play, it just doesn't play deep into games. It seems to me that at least part of the reason the Twins didn't pursue Odo or Rich Hill again, and the reason Dobnak wasn't viewed as a great option for the 5th starter, is that none consistently pitch deep into games. Consider how frequently these guys pitched at least 6 innings over the past two years:
Berrios 27 times in 44 starts = 61% ... 23 of 32 = 72% in 2019.
Pineda 16 in 31 = 52%

Maeda 18 in 37 = 49% (2019 w/ LAD) ... but 8 of 11 = 73% last year

Rich Hill 7 in 21 = 33% (2019 w/ LAD)

Odorizzi 11 in 34 = 32% ... if you use 2018 & 19 it's 20 in 62 = 32%!

Dobnak 2 in 15 = 13%

There are a couple reasons guys struggle to go deep in games ... they struggle the 3rd time thru the lineup and/or their pitch count gets high. For Dobnak to be a quality starter, he needs to figure out which of these is his bigger problem and solve it. The slider may be his ticket!

Nothing wrong with being a 3 inning relief guy, or perhaps use as an opener.

I thought Thorpe had already been granted a fourth year option

I think especially in the beginning, that we need extra long relievers to help give the starters breathers. That said I still think Dobnak should be a starter.

If this pitch can be an out pitch for Dobnak he should get his chance as starter.  He has produced for most part his whole career.  His biggest issue was lack of an out pitch.  Hitters hardly ever hit him hard, but they would foul off so many pitches he could not go deep into games.  If he can mix this pitch in to get more swings and misses when he gets to 2 strikes he needs to get some time in rotation.  I would not be surprised given that he has options that he starts at alternate site until a spot start is open, or they have him start in pen to do long relief or spot starts when open.  Then I bet he shows what he can do again and gets a full time rotation spot.  As long as the slider gets him outs.

If Dobnak can be above average MLB pitcher, Falve needs to be mentioned as all time great pitching diamond in rough finder.  I do not know how he does it, but so often he can find guys later in rounds, or independent leagues and be major league quality.  I am sure he has had some swings and misses, but he seems to have a knack of finding guys no one was that high on.  I wonder if he knows when to pass on guys everyone is high on and they are all wrong?  That would be huge test of his ability to spot good pitching talent or not.  

Maybe piggyback Happ/Dobnak, LHP/RHP. Each pitch 4 innings, give bullpen a break that day.

I'm surprised how few pitchers publicly talk about learning or tweaking a new pitch. You'd think everybody would want to improve their arsenal, though more is not necessarily better.

If it comes down to Dobnak vs Thorpe, LH + out-of-options will always win on April 1.

But maybe not by May 1. It's a long season.

Dobnak and Thorpe are nice surprises this spring. Every team is going to need a little more depth this year. I still not completely sold on Thorpe but Dobnak could be quite good if he has come up with an out pitch. With a little luck this team is going to have a lot of homegrown pitching for the next several years. What a change that would be!!!

I thought Thorpe had already been granted a fourth year option

He has according to CBS Sports.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/playerpage/2117130/lewis-thorpe

I thought Thorpe had already been granted a fourth year option

That was what was reported a few weeks ago but last week that changed. 
 

https://www.startribune.com/lewis-thorpe-good-enough-for-twins-to-keep-but-it-might-not-be-feasible/600031630/

I thought Thorpe had already been granted a fourth year option

I'm not sure why, but the extra option is up before an arbitrator. I've heard the final decision is supposed to come down this week. Not sure how anyone could rule against Thorpe and the Twins and not grant the extra option.

I know Thorpe was granted another option, so it’s a moot point, but the discussion in this article is another example of how awful the current MLB system is.

We’re talking about how good Dobnak has been, how he’s developed a nasty new pitch and he’s striking guys out at a high rate.....oh by the way, he might not pitch for the major league club because a guy who has been nothing but terrible in multiple opportunities is out of options.

Somebody fix this thing already.

Arbitrator decides on Thorpe's option on Thursday I believe.

I know Thorpe was granted another option, so it’s a moot point, but the discussion in this article is another example of how awful the current MLB system is.

We’re talking about how good Dobnak has been, how he’s developed a nasty new pitch and he’s striking guys out at a high rate.....oh by the way, he might not pitch for the major league club because a guy who has been nothing but terrible in multiple opportunities is out of options.

Somebody fix this thing already.

Fix what? At this point its pure speculation. If the adjustment in question makes a significant difference he will be on the ML club. It might not be in a tradition starting role but he will have a significant role. 

Also keep in mind they are paying Shoemaker RP money. They are not going to stash Dobnak for a guy on a 1 yr $2M contract. They could just as easily use Shoemaker in long relief. I presume that flexibility was part of the grand design. So, let's not get ahead of ourselves and see how this plays out.