In First Move of Off Season, Twins Pick Up Sonny Gray's Option

Makes sense. No surprise that they did. 

Will second CRF’s comment.

 I remain hopeful that they get more games out of him next season as he really is capable of being a solid #1.  Expect they would wait to extend him, if he is interested ?, until they see how healthy he is and how well Louie and SWR do in 2023.

  On 11/6/2022 at 7:16 PM, roger said:

Will second CRF’s comment.

 I remain hopeful that they get more games out of him next season as he really is capable of being a solid #1.  Expect they would wait to extend him, if he is interested ?, until they see how healthy he is and how well Louie and SWR do in 2023.

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Ever since his first injury in 2016 he's had only one year where he's been healthy and taken the ball every start (2019 31 GS, 175 IP.)  Other than that he hit 162 IP one time and then it seems you're only going to get about 130-135 IP in a couple dozens starts, much like this past season. They are pretty good starts, so that's great  production if you price in the fact that he's going to miss 20% or more of a full season. The Falvine were able to get that type of contract with Buxton, and they should extend Sonny as well if he's willing to meet them out there in the middle, land of Games Started incentives.

Gray turns 33 tomorrow, if he waits until he is a free agent after next season to sign a long term contract he will be entering that agreement at age 34. Which I think will make it difficult for anyone to offer him a deal past 3 years, if that long. I think the Twins could lock him up for a total of 4 years at a fairly reasonable price around $75 mil.

The Twins are off to a great start to the off season! 

"Twins fans should welcome another year of the ace on the mound."

As much as I like Gray, and as happy as I am that they picked up the option, I have to ask myself:  how far has baseball fallen when someone with 120 innings and only 9 quality starts is talked about as an "ace"?  

I must be getting old.  ?
:

  On 11/6/2022 at 7:16 PM, roger said:

Will second CRF’s comment.

 I remain hopeful that they get more games out of him next season as he really is capable of being a solid #1.  Expect they would wait to extend him, if he is interested ?, until they see how healthy he is and how well Louie and SWR do in 2023.

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That makes a lot of sense.  They need to come up with two SPs to replace Mahle / Gray between Varland / SWR / Winder / Paddack and perhaps Sands or Dobnak could surprise us.  If they have that depth, they can easily afford to go out and get a true front of the rotation guy in free agency that is at least as good as Gray and Younger.  

Gray getting his option picked up was a no brainer. I wouldn't extend him though.

I would not do 4/$75M for Gray, and I like him.  Just over $21M per year for his age 34-36 seasons seems like a massive overpay, especially given his injury history.  Backs are tricky things, and never seem to get better with age.

Hopefully Gray has a better year next season than Petty has.

I also don't think you should extend him.  If he has a good year make him a QO for 2024, then move on.  Some pitchers can pitch well from 35 - 40, most don't. 

It was never in question, but has he talked to Rocco about how he wants to be handled?

Yes I too am happy and totally unsurprised by this common sense move.  I agree with a previous poster about how low the standards have become for starting pitchers.  It's so sad to see the continued demise of the once great game.

They should extend Gray but not for four years at $75 million. That would be ridiculous! Another year or two extension at $12 million per year for a pitcher with a long injury history seems fair to me. Rocco’s myopic handling of starters just might actually be what Gray needs: five inning starts and 130 innings factoring in the IL that always happens with him. 

Sonny Gray was placed on the IL in April, May and September. I think most teams would have been cautious with his use after those two early season injuries. 

Well we now move into stage 2 of the sonny gray prediction  ...

Now that the FO office has extended sonny Gray's option and he is a twins pitcher currently for them in the 2023 season  ...

Now we will wait and see in the next week or so if sonny gray will request or demand a trade  ...

It's 50 / 50 now ...

I'm still predicting sonny gray will  request a trade and though we wouldn't get a petty type pitcher in return  we would get some good prospects  as every team needs or wants pitching ...

I love my twins but if I was considered an ace I would not play for the twins  plan of the FO and manager  ... 

I'm just having alittle fun here so don't take it seriously , but I could be right and he has every right to request a trade   ...

It's my plan and I'm sticking to it  ...

I have zero concerns about a Sonny Gray "trade demand".  This isnt the NBA or the NFL.

A follow up question:   Other than his one comment to the media about pitching longer into games mid-season, has there been any news about him not wanting to pitch in MInnesota?  I do not recall seeing or hearing anything other than that comment.

Assuming he would want to come back, I would look at an incentive laden contract extension.  Something along the lines of 2/$24 with 3rd year option and incentives based on starts made.  If they are paying him $15-18 per year, he is probably earning it.

I have enjoyed watching Sonny Gray pitch for the Twins this past year. I hope 2023 will be a huge success for him with the Twins. I think it will be. (cough -petty-cough).

  On 11/7/2022 at 3:43 PM, chpettit19 said:

Sonny Gray isn't considered an ace, though. 

Sonny Gray hasn't averaged 6 innings a start since 2017. He became a fulltime starter in 2014 and in his 9 seasons he's averaged 6 innings a start 3 times. His first 2 seasons he averaged 6.6 and 6.7 innings per start. Since then he's gone 5.3, 6, 5.6, 5.6, 5.1, 5.2, and finally 5 with the Twins last year. He's been with 4 teams now, and other than his first 2 seasons he's been used basically the same way with all 4 of them. We need to quit with this talk that the Twins were doing something crazy with Gray last year and he is super mad about it. Were there starts that he was pulled before he should have been? Absolutely. Did that likely upset him? Absolutely. But his overall body of work was pretty much right in line with who he's been for years now. And it produced his 2nd best ERA since 2015.

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Well... this post makes complete sense and should put an end to the assumptions/rumors/questioning when the Twins pulled Gray. But I still have a nagging thought where I wonder how Gray would pitch, if the Twins let him pitch an inning or even two innings deeper into his games. Just saying. 

Don't be surprised if you see free agent prices rise dramatically this offseason. There are a lot of teams with money to spend and lots of certainty due to the signed CBA. The Edwin Diaz contract (5 years, $102M for a reliever) is just the start.

  On 11/7/2022 at 3:43 PM, chpettit19 said:

Sonny Gray isn't considered an ace, though. 

Sonny Gray hasn't averaged 6 innings a start since 2017. He became a fulltime starter in 2014 and in his 9 seasons he's averaged 6 innings a start 3 times. His first 2 seasons he averaged 6.6 and 6.7 innings per start. Since then he's gone 5.3, 6, 5.6, 5.6, 5.1, 5.2, and finally 5 with the Twins last year. He's been with 4 teams now, and other than his first 2 seasons he's been used basically the same way with all 4 of them. We need to quit with this talk that the Twins were doing something crazy with Gray last year and he is super mad about it. Were there starts that he was pulled before he should have been? Absolutely. Did that likely upset him? Absolutely. But his overall body of work was pretty much right in line with who he's been for years now. And it produced his 2nd best ERA since 2015.

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You say this like it is true, average innings per start isn't really a good start unless you dig into way it is what it is. Maybe average start based on earned runs would be better. Because his average start where he game up 3 or less runs was much higher in the past than it was with the Twins (I left out 18 because he had so many relief games but is was pretty much give up less than 3 runs and start the 6th)

In 17 he started 27 games and in 21 of those he started the 6th inning, 19 of those he completed the 6th. 2 games he went 5.

In 19 he started 31 games and in 20 of those he started the 6th inning, 17 of those he completed the 6th. 6 games he went 5.

In 20 he started 11 games and in 7 of those he started the 6th, 5 of those he completed the 6th. 2 games he went 5.

In 21 he started 26 games and 10 of those he started the 6th, 9 of those he completed the 6th. 6 games he went 5.

In 22 he stared 24 games and in 9 of those he started and completed the 6th. 5 games he went 5.

His problem is the past is there has been too many games he just wasn't good, In 17 the only games he didn't go at least 5 where games he gave up more than 4 runs and there was only 1 game where he didn't complete 5 giving up less than 3 earned runs and he went 5 2/3. In 19 there was only two games where he had given up 2 runs or less that he didn't finish the 6th. In 20 there was only two games he gave up 2 runs or less and didn't start the 6th. In 21 there were 3 games where he gave up 2 runs or less and didn't start the 6th. In 22 there were 9 games (more than a 1/3 of his starts) where he gave up 2 or less earned runs that he didn't start the 6th.

I am not saying they did something crazy or even wrong with Gray last year, just pointing out that what you are saying isn't exactly accurate.

If Gray can make it through the early season without trips to the IL I think we will see him go beyond 100 pitches. If he makes two trips to the IL in the first two months like last year it would seem wise to take opportunities to limit his innings.

Gray was upset being pulled from an August game against the Royals where dominated the first 6 innings and his pitch count was 92. Joe Ryan later in the season had almost the same performance after 6 innings (94 pitches) against the Royals. He was given a 7th inning and finished at 106 pitches. It was the 7th time Ryan went over 100 pitches, Gray never reached that threshold.

I expect Gray will go longer in games in 2023 as long as he is pitching effectively and staying healthy. 

  On 11/7/2022 at 4:03 PM, DJL44 said:

Don't be surprised if you see free agent prices rise dramatically this offseason. There are a lot of teams with money to spend and lots of certainty due to the signed CBA. The Edwin Diaz contract (5 years, $102M for a reliever) is just the start.

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That Diaz contract is bad. A 5 year deal for a reliever coming off a career year at $20M per? Yikes. He was awesome this year. He's been awesome before. But he's followed up an awesome season with a disappointing one more than once (see also, 2019 & 2021).