How Much Will It Cost to Trade for Noah Syndergaard?

Adding an arm like Noah Syndergaard to the likes of Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi could give the Twins a formidable top of the rotation that will be scary for opposing teams to face in the postseason. Unfortunately, acquiring a pitcher like Syndergaard won’t be cheap, as the Mets are probably not too eager to move him, on top of the fact that if he does become available, nearly every team in the postseason hunt will be looking to acquire him. So, what would it take to land this stud pitcher? Let’s find out.

First, we will start by looking at what the Twins would be acquiring if they were to trade for Noah Syndergaard. At 26 years of age, Syndergaard is just now entering the prime of his career and would make a lot of sense to add in with this young Twins core. Syndergaard is currently making $6,000,000 in his second year of arbitration, but since he entered his first year of arbitration as a Super 2, Syndergaard won’t become a free agent until after the 2021 season, which gives the Twins 2 and 1/2 season of team control. This could factor in huge for the Twins this offseason, as the only two pitchers in the current rotation they have coming back next year are Jose Berrios and Martin Perez (if they pick up Perez’s $7,500,000 team option).

After making his MLB debut in 2015, Noah Syndergaard quickly established himself as one of the premier starting pitchers in the game. His 100 MPH fastball electrified fans, and his result were nothing short of stellar. However, Syndergaard suffered a setback in 2017 when he torn his right latissimus muscle just a month into the season, causing him to be out for nearly five months. Syndergaard bounced back well from his injury in 2018, posting a 3.03 ERA (2.80 FIP) in 154 and 1/3 innings. 2019 hasn’t quite been the same story for Syndergaard, as he has a 4.55 ERA (3.62 FIP) in 95 innings. The worrisome part for Syndergaard is his strikeout rate has dipped slightly since the injury. Prior to the injury, Syndergaard had a 28.4% strikeout rate (which ranked sixth among starting pitchers with at least 200 IP over that timeframe). Since the injury, however, Syndergaard has a strikeout rate of 23.9% (which ranks 42nd among starting pitchers with at least 200 IP over that timeframe). Syndergaard’s fastball velocity has dipped a tick too, though it still remains among the fastest in baseball. In 2016 and 2017, Syndergaard averaged 98.6 MPH on his fastball. In the two years since, Syndergaard's fastball has averaged 97.6 MPH. Additionally, Syndergaard has been on the IL since June 15th with a hamstring strain but is expected to be back and in the starting rotation on Sunday.

Trade Comparisons

A good place to start to figure out what it might cost to acquire Noah Syndergaard is by looking at some other trades for big-name starting pitchers with multiple years of control over recent years. We can start by looking at the Chris Archer trade. As many of you remember, the Twins were looking to trade for Archer before the 2018 season, yet luckily for them they didn’t because the Pittsburgh Pirates gave up an arm and a leg to get him. The headliners they sent back to the Tampa Bay Rays were Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows, both of whom were elite prospects who had just graduated to the MLB ranks. They also included right-hander Shane Baz, who at the time was the 95th ranked prospect in baseball, per MLB.com. At the time everyone said the Pirates gave up way too much for Archer, and in the year since looks like it might be one of the most lopsided trades in MLB history. I would be shocked if the Mets get anywhere close to that good of an offer for Syndergaard.

Another trade in recent years to compare to is the Jose Quintana trade in 2017. At the time, Quintana was under contract for 3 1/2 more years at a very team friendly rate. To acquire Quintana from the Chicago White Sox, the Chicago Cubs gave up each of their top two prospects: Eloy Jimenez, who at the time was a top-10 prospect in baseball, along with Dylan Cease, who is one now of the top ranked prospects in baseball, and knocking on the MLB door. The Cubs also gave up two lower-tier prospects.

At the times of their deals, both Archer and Quintana were similar pitchers in skill level to where Noah Syndergaard is now: not quite dominant aces, but good enough to be the number one starter on a team lacking an ace. Archer and Quintana both also had an additional year of control than Syndergaard would come with, and neither had quite the injury concerns that Syndergaard has.

A couple other deals you can look at recently are the trades involving Chris Sale and Gerrit Cole. Though, it’s a little hard to compare a trade for Syndergaard with the Chris Sale trade since Syndergaard isn’t quite the same level pitcher Sale was at the time of that trade. The Gerrit Cole trade is also a little difficult to compare to, as the Astros traded away a bunch of players who were already MLB ready with relatively low upside. As we stand, it is hard to imaging the Twins trading away many MLB ready players with years of team control, unless they look to move someone like Luis Arraez, though I would be surprised if the Twins are at all interested in moving Arraez at this point.

Building a Package

If the Twins want to build a package to acquire Noah Syndergaard, it will almost certainly have to include either Royce Lewis or Alex Kirilloff. They could potentially try to build a package around Brusdar Graterol, but with him being shelved for over a month now with a shoulder injury, I can’t see the Mets willing to give up their prized pitcher for another pitcher with some shoulder issues. That being said, I’m sure many of you would like to see what a package not involving Lewis or Kirilloff would look like, so I will put one together for argument's sake.

Disclaimer: I am not necessarily saying I would be willing to offer these deals for Syndergaard, this is simply an exercise examine what it might take to acquire Syndergaard.

Let’s start by looking at a deal around former first overall draft pick Royce Lewis. There was a point earlier this year where Lewis was in the conversation for top prospect in baseball after players like Vlad Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., and the previously mentioned Eloy Jimenez graduated from the prospect rankings. However, a slow start to the season has brought Lewis’s value down a tick. For many Twins fans, a straight up trade Lewis for Syndergaard might be enough (or even too much), but I am here to tell you, that will not be the case. The Mets will most likely require at least one or two mid-to-lower level prospects in addition to Lewis to cover the risk in case he becomes a bust.

Offer: Royce Lewis, Jorge Alcala & Chris Williams

If the Twins are unwilling to part ways with Royce Lewis, they next place the Mets will turn to is Alex Kirilloff. If a deal were to get done, I see this as the most likely scenario. Kirilloff is without question the best hitting prospect in the Twins system and is arguably the best hitting prospect in the minor leagues right now period. He has had a slow start to 2019, but his bat should still be considered to be plus-plus. Where Kirilloff loses some value is on the defensive side of the ball. It is starting to look more and more that Kiriloff is destined to be either a slightly below-average corner outfielder, or a fulltime first-baseman. If the Twins deal for Syndergaard were to revolve around Kiriloff, they will most likely have to include another top tier prospect in order to get the deal done.

Offer: Alex Kirilloff, Jordan Balazovic & Nick Gordon

As I mentioned previously, it is unlikely that the Twins get a deal done without trading away either Lewis or Kirilloff, but If the Twins are dead set on not trading away either of those two, but still want to pursue a deal for Syndergaard, it is going to take a large haul of prospects. Fortunately for the Twins, they have a few other top tier prospects in their system, including three players in Brusdar Graterol, Trevor Larnach and Jordan Balazovic who are all currently ranked as Top 100 Prospects by both Baseball America and MLB.com. Asking the Twins to give up all three of these players will be a tall task, but that might be just what it takes if they want to pry Noah Syndergaard away from the Mets, who will without question be receiving offers from other teams that include a prospect or two that are more revered than any of these three.

Offer: Brusdar Graterol, Trevor Larnach, Jordan Balazovic & Ben Rortvedt

All three of these offers seem like they would be giving up a lot of prospect capital, but that is the nature of trading for All-Star starting pitchers with multiple years of team control. If you want to acquire them, it is going to cost you a lot. Let us know in the comments below what you think. Would you be willing to trade for Noah Syndergaard, and if so, what kind of package would you put together to trade for him?

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