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  • How Have the Twins Fared in Previous Top-100 Prospect Trades?


    Cody Christie

    Throughout the history of the Minnesota Twins, there have been few trades of top prospects in the organization. Minnesota has been forced to build from within and this has meant teams have been required to live and die through prospect development. Brusdar Graterol was clearly a top-100 prospect so how have the Twins done when trading away, or for other top prospects?

    Image courtesy of © Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

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    Wilson Ramos

    Many fans will be upset when mentioning the Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps trade. Ramos was a top-65 prospect by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. He recorded seven hits in his first two professional games, and it seemed like he could team up with Joe Mauer as a tremendous catching duo.

    Having Mauer still behind the plate made a catching prospect more expendable. Minnesota also needed more relief help during the 2010 campaign. If Capps had helped the Twins to an extended playoff run, his trade might have been forgotten. Instead, Twins fans watched Ramos blossom into an All-Star catcher with the Nationals and Rays.

    WAR Acquired: 0.9 WAR (Before Capps Resigned)

    WAR Lost: 10.4 WAR

    Matt Garza

    Trading Matt Garza for Delmon Young seemed like a perfect fit for both teams at the time with each player being a highly ranked prospect. Tampa needed more pitching to help them take the next step and Young provided a powerful right-handed bat between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the Twins line-up. Tampa would ride Garza to a World Series run, while the Twins made playoff appearances but Young was never a difference maker.

    Young, a former number one overall pick, finished second in the 2007 Rookie of the Year voting. After joining Minnesota, he hit .287/.324/.429 (.753) but his bat never reached the potential he showed as a prospect and his defense was atrocious. Garza was the ALCS MVP and provided WAR totals of 3.4 or above in two of his three seasons in Tampa.

    WAR Acquired: 1.0 WAR

    WAR Lost: 8.5 WAR

    Alex Meyer and Trevor May

    These two trades seemed to get lumped together since they happened in the same off-season. With both trades above, the Twins were sending away top-100 prospects, but these trades were a little different. Minnesota dealt established outfielders Denard Span and Ben Revere in exchange for pitching prospects Alex Meyer and Trevor May along with Vance Worley.

    Meyer struggled as he moved through the upper levels on the minor leagues and he would only pitch in parts of four seasons in the organization. Eventually, he was traded to the Angels before injuries ended his career. He played 22 games at the big-league level and retired after his age-27 season.

    When trading for May, the Twins likely saw him as a starting pitching prospect, but he has found his niche in the Twins bullpen. Last season, he posted a sub-3.00 ERA while striking out 79 batters in 64 1/3 innings. He can be a free agent at season’s end so he will have plenty to pitch for during the 2020 campaign.

    WAR Acquired: -0.6 (Meyer), 2.0 (May), and -1.1 (Worley)

    WAR Lost: 7.0 (Span) and 4.1 (Revere)

    How did the Twins fare in these trades involving former top-100 prospects? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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    The problem I have with this article is using only WAR to compare the trades.  The two CF for pitcher trades is not balanced due to fact May became pen pitcher and a decent one at that and should help us this year.  Let me ask this, would you rather have May now or Revere?  Pretty sure we could snatch up Revere somewhere.  Also, even if you wanted the production over that time, how much of a difference would Revere made over that time?  

     

    The Garza for Young trade clearly worked out better for Rays, but Garza was not a fan of the way the Twins were teaching him and he may never have developed the same way with the Twins as he did with the Rays, maybe he would have but that is difficult to judge.  

     

    Clearly the worst was the Matt Capps trade, which was another Bill Smith blunder.  He was part of a group that over valued the closer and the save.  No way would any team now a days trade a top catching prospect for a below average bullpen guy, that just happened to pile up a lot of counting stats.  It showed how badly the team needed to embrace a new line of thinking.  It was a terrible attempt at a win now move. Even if Joe could have caught during much of the time Ramos was a young catcher, they still could have flipped him for more than Capps. 

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    The Garza for Young trade clearly worked out better for Rays, but Garza was not a fan of the way the Twins were teaching him and he may never have developed the same way with the Twins as he did with the Rays, maybe he would have but that is difficult to judge.  

    Garza had a 3.69 ERA (117 ERA+) and 4.18 FIP in 2007 for the Twins.

     

    His best single-season marks in Tampa were a 3.70 ERA (119 ERA+) and 4.14 FIP.

     

    I think it's fair to say he would have turned into much the same pitcher.

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    Our favorite team has done a solid job at trading for talent. At the 2018 trade deadline alone, we picked up 4 starting pitching prospects and Alcala. I understand members buried in the past, as I do the ever present Impatient Brigade. Going forward, things can't look much better.

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    Cody, love you dude, but this revisionist history has to stop. I appreciate the OP and the idea, but enough is enough.

     

    Hicks was thrust in to a position he wasn't ready for. So was Hunter.

     

    Plouffe recently stated that the Ramos for Capps move might look bad, but the Twins don't win without that move.

     

    Span and Revere for Meyer and May didn't turn out the way we hoped. But at the time, it was a pair of moves seldom seen by the Twins FO. EVERYONE had Meyer dialed in as a stud #1 and May as a #2-3. Never worked out, though May has found himself as an important piece.

     

    Aggie turned out to be OK didn't he? So did Liriano before his arm blew out. Bonser was solid for a brief time. That potential HOF guy Nathan was pretty good, right?

     

    Different times, different eras. Maybe Graterol develops in to something special and we have serious regrets. Maybe he doesn't. Maybe he does and yet Maeda helps us win something.

     

    We just need to leave the past in the past and worry about now and an entirely different FO and infrastructure.

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    I thought the Young trade was included here more because of Garza, although technically he had graduated the prospect list in 2007 too. I guess even in 2008, both guys were still getting valued by their high top 100 ranks from 2007.

     

    Humber had lost his top 100 ranking by the time we traded for him too, but due to health/performance rather than graduation.

     

    It's not surprising Nathan wasn't on any lists -- not only was he drafted as a shortstop before converting to pitcher, he was actually a mediocre starting pitcher in the minors until converting to relief at age 28.

     

    I think top 100 lists can be useful, as long as one understands their limitations and context.

    When the limitation are the great percentage of prospects that fail and the numbers of prospects with low or no rankings become good or great players that is a pretty severe limitation.

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    About the guy we trade for (Murphy), I believe he`s never been in a ML game.

    Murphy had already hit a home run against the Twins to help the Yankees beat them when we traded for him.  He had appeared in 115 ML games before the trade, then 26 for the Twins, and 119 since. 

     

    His OPS+ was 100 in 2015 with the Yankees.  Then it was 12, yes that's correct 12, with the Twins in 2016.  His career number is 66.  Eminently forgettable, unless you traded Aaron Hicks to get him.

     

    Not a huge deal, I just felt like the Truth Police had to make an appearance here.  They will now go back into their closet.

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