Grading Each Team in the Mookie Betts Trade

If I were to rank my non-Cole/Strasburg free agent preferences along with Maeda, it would have been 

 

Wheeler

Maeda

Ryu

Bumgarner

 

Zero interest in Keuchel

 

So, I like this trade.

 

This! (Though I would have had Ryu and Bumgarner swapped).

I don't pretend to be a scout or an expert on the NL in general or the Dodgers specifically, but to dismiss Maeda as anything but a quality ML SP is a mistake. Now, he's not the #1 ACE SP everyone wants, but that doesn't mean he's not good. All the numbers I look at, and every report and opinion I read has nothing but good things.

As to the bullpen, make up your own minds. But from what I gather, despite having a deep and outstanding rotation, the Dodgers have done little to amp up their pen the last couple of years. Hence, the move of Maeda there at the end of the season.

True, but I believe the target ~50% quote from ownership specifically referred to MLB player payroll, not draft bonuses, minor league expenses, stadium expenses, etc.

Didn't they also say they used previous year's revenue back when they floated the 50% premise?

BTW ... 2018 payroll was 51.% of 2017 revenue. 

I support the trade...even like it.

But also acknowledge that the trade is a bet on Graterol not being able to handle a major-league starter's workload. If Graterol becomes a reliable starter in the major leagues...really any time in the next 3 years or so...then it is HIGHLY likely the Twins FO will regret this deal. But that's the nature of trades. You can't win if you don't play.

Perhaps. But as a technical matter, the original poster does seem to be correct that they're right around half now, which I think was the other poster's follow-up question.

 

Of course, one can disagree on whether the Twins have any obligation to go higher than that.

I think you may have missed the point. Including the level of profitability gives us a relative sense of spending capacity. It makes absolutely no sense for me to accuse you of being frugal if I don’t know your spending capacity. If we don’t know profitability, we can’t have a meaningful discussion on the Twins relative ability to spend. We also can’t have an informed discussion on the Twins relative willingness to spend.

You think their goal is a number, or a percent of revenue? I have no idea.

Analysts generally look at profitability as a percentage of various metrics. Revenue and Return on Capital being the most common. However, that has little to do with the point I was trying to make. Many people get upset without a solid basis for judgement. IMO, fans could save themselves some frustration if they were willing to make an objective comparison to other teams.

The Twins must have really wanted to get rid of Graterol, and get Maeda. That really surprises me. Graterol for an innings eater. Blows me away.

This was actually two separate trades as it turned out. The Dodgers sure became more loaded, groan. Will they be able to re-sign him in the offseason next year? If Price is healthy in Dodger Stadium he could have another 2018 season. Only way to beat Dodgers in postseason is to outpitch them and win the close ones. An A. The Red Sox well they couldn't find another team to give them a better return so an F. Waiting for the cheating punishment to be handed out for their 2018 season.

Twins deal incomplete. When and if Graderol pitches more innings than Maeda the Dodgers will be happy since to them this is a mid-level trade, forgotten in a year or two. The Dodgers giving up $10 million with other draft pick and prospects involved makes you wonder they value the others just as much.

Setting aside the issue of salaries and impending free agency, I think the Dodgers were the big winner in this deal. But I still think the Twins did okay too. Getting an above average starter like Maeda was huge. Then again, another year or two down the line I may regret that opinion if Graterol becomes an all-star. But I still think the Red Sox didn't get much of a return for losing both Betts and Price. If I'm a Boston fan I'd be feeling very disappointed.

This was actually two separate trades as it turned out. The Dodgers sure became more loaded, groan. Will they be able to re-sign him in the offseason next year? If Price is healthy in Dodger Stadium he could have another 2018 season. Only way to beat Dodgers in postseason is to outpitch them and win the close ones. An A. The Red Sox well they couldn't find another team to give them a better return so an F. Waiting for the cheating punishment to be handed out for their 2018 season.

 

Boston did not find a team willing to give more because 1 year of Betts is not worth more than they received.  Also, consider Boston is not going to compete this year so how much value did Betts really hold for them? What they showed here is that they are not interested in being mediocre so they sacrificed in a year they won't compete to amke themselves better for several years yo come. Kind of like the Yankees did when they got Torres.

They also reset the luxury tax which will position them nicely in pursuing free agents. They get 5 years of a guy who could be an all-star in Verdugo , a SS top 100 prospect, and a catching prospect that can play 2B/3B. He could be a very nice utility player. All of this for 1 year of Betts in a year they won’t compete. I guess it’s an F if you have a very short-term view and fail to consider Boston is not likely to compete this year. Long-term this deal was a solid B+ for Boston and an A- if Downs becomes an average regular. They get a solid A if he becomes an above average regular.

Boston did not find a team willing to give more because 1 year of Betts is not worth more than they received. Also, consider Boston is not going to compete this year so how much value did Betts really hold for them? What they showed here is that they are not interested in being mediocre so they sacrificed in a year they won't compete to amke themselves better for several years yo come. Kind of like the Yankees did when they got Torres.

 

They also reset the luxury tax which will position them nicely in pursuing free agents. They get 5 years of a guy who could be an all-star in Verdugo , a SS top 100 prospect, and a catching prospect that can play 2B/3B. He could be a very nice utility player. All of this for 1 year of Betts in a year they won’t compete. I guess it’s an F if you have a very short-term view and fail to consider Boston is not likely to compete this year. Long-term this deal was a solid B+ for Boston and an A- if Downs becomes an average regular. They get a solid A if he becomes an above average regular.

Maybe, they sign Betts next offseason. Their new GM promised fans they would still compete this year. I suggest if the Red Sox go 11-8 against the Yankees they pick up 6 games as they were 5-14 last season. Forfeiting draft picks like the Astros?

 

But beyond ERA, both systems project him in the 1.9-2.4 WAR range, prorated to 156 innings. That's about right for an average-range SP, which is still useful but may be a question mark for the postseason rotation just like he was for the Dodgers.

Now I will not claim to be a super analytic guy, but does WAR not stand for wins above replacement?  To me, that means replacement is the "average" right?  So does that not mean having 1.9 - 2.4 WAR mean he is inherently above average by definition? I mean if not, then who are they being replaced with a tee, a pitching machine, a bp pitcher?  To me the stat must be flawed if 0 is not an average pitcher, but just my two cents on the WAR stat.