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By now you’ve seen Eddie Rosario’s image on the article and are saying to yourself “Eddie Rosario is under contract until 2022”. You’re correct. Technically. There are a few things to consider however.
2020 is Eddie’s second year going through the arbitration process, a system that gives consistent raises year to year leading up to free agency. From 2019-2020, Eddie received a raise of about $3m and currently sits at $7.75m. Eddie is due for his last run through the process in 2021, his salary very possibly set to exceed $10m. When comparing this around the league, it’s not particularly lucrative. However, context is important.
The Twins have the greatest problem a team can have on the horizon. There’s not enough room for all of the talent in the outfield. Jake Cave is a sneaky good player that holds his own at the MLB level. Brent Rooker has punished the minor leagues at every level. We’ve all been hearing about Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach for some time, and both looked near MLB ready this spring as previously pointed out by fellow Twins Daily writer Nash Walker. The Twins may just not be all that incentivized to pay money that could be spent elsewhere on a corner outfielder when they have so many talented lower-cost options.
Another catch with allotting a significant amount of money to Eddie Rosario is his performance. While his 2019 was surely affected by injury, it wasn’t a great note to end on if it does lead right into his final year of arbitration. While always a streaky player, Eddie’s valleys seemed to outweigh his peaks in 2019, as he finished just 3% above league average at the plate according to wRC+. His swing rate on pitches outside of the strike zone was a career high at 46.3%, a skill that good hitters typically decrease as they mature. While he made contact on these swings at a ridiculous 75% clip, his hard hit rate in the 34th percentile clearly shows that contact on these pitches just don’t lead to consistently driving the baseball. While Eddie still gets a decent amount of good swings in, pitchers simply don’t have to throw him anything that he can do damage with.
The biggest issue with Eddie in 2019 was definitely his defense. He had -6 defensive runs saved in left field paired with an unforgivable -17 Outs Above Average according to Baseball Savant, the worst in all of baseball. The analytically inclined front office is bound to question whether they have a replacement that can improve upon Eddie’s slightly above average offense and league worst defense in 2019. The discussions around Eddie on the trade market this winter may have foreshadowed that it may be a “yes”.
Look beyond things like RBI total that are based on opportunity, something Eddie got plenty of hitting cleanup in 2019 for one of the best offenses in history. His overall profile on offense paints the picture of a streaky hitter that may not age particularly well. His defense, while likely limited by injury, was so bad in aggregate that even the highlight reel plays that come to mind were completely overshadowed. I’m betting on a bounceback for Eddie in his next healthy season, though the business side of the front office might not have much incentive to make that bet if his salary increases again. All things considered, Eddie may need to be added to the list of players we may have seen the last of in 2019 for the Twins. And yes Twins fans, despite my critical view of our left fielder, that makes me sad.
https://twitter.com/CodyPirkl/status/1250783436211720192
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