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  • Goodbye Eddie?


    Cody Pirkl

    As players' service clocks continue to run through 2020, season or not, the obvious worry is for the Twins to prematurely lose players like Trevor May, Marwin Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz when us fans had looked forward to another year of watching them at Target Field. There may be another player that’s been overlooked in this group however, whose days in Minnesota may be through if the 2020 season is cancelled.

    Image courtesy of © David Berding-USA TODAY Sports

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    By now you’ve seen Eddie Rosario’s image on the article and are saying to yourself “Eddie Rosario is under contract until 2022”. You’re correct. Technically. There are a few things to consider however.

    2020 is Eddie’s second year going through the arbitration process, a system that gives consistent raises year to year leading up to free agency. From 2019-2020, Eddie received a raise of about $3m and currently sits at $7.75m. Eddie is due for his last run through the process in 2021, his salary very possibly set to exceed $10m. When comparing this around the league, it’s not particularly lucrative. However, context is important.

    The Twins have the greatest problem a team can have on the horizon. There’s not enough room for all of the talent in the outfield. Jake Cave is a sneaky good player that holds his own at the MLB level. Brent Rooker has punished the minor leagues at every level. We’ve all been hearing about Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach for some time, and both looked near MLB ready this spring as previously pointed out by fellow Twins Daily writer Nash Walker. The Twins may just not be all that incentivized to pay money that could be spent elsewhere on a corner outfielder when they have so many talented lower-cost options.

    Another catch with allotting a significant amount of money to Eddie Rosario is his performance. While his 2019 was surely affected by injury, it wasn’t a great note to end on if it does lead right into his final year of arbitration. While always a streaky player, Eddie’s valleys seemed to outweigh his peaks in 2019, as he finished just 3% above league average at the plate according to wRC+. His swing rate on pitches outside of the strike zone was a career high at 46.3%, a skill that good hitters typically decrease as they mature. While he made contact on these swings at a ridiculous 75% clip, his hard hit rate in the 34th percentile clearly shows that contact on these pitches just don’t lead to consistently driving the baseball. While Eddie still gets a decent amount of good swings in, pitchers simply don’t have to throw him anything that he can do damage with.

    The biggest issue with Eddie in 2019 was definitely his defense. He had -6 defensive runs saved in left field paired with an unforgivable -17 Outs Above Average according to Baseball Savant, the worst in all of baseball. The analytically inclined front office is bound to question whether they have a replacement that can improve upon Eddie’s slightly above average offense and league worst defense in 2019. The discussions around Eddie on the trade market this winter may have foreshadowed that it may be a “yes”.

    Look beyond things like RBI total that are based on opportunity, something Eddie got plenty of hitting cleanup in 2019 for one of the best offenses in history. His overall profile on offense paints the picture of a streaky hitter that may not age particularly well. His defense, while likely limited by injury, was so bad in aggregate that even the highlight reel plays that come to mind were completely overshadowed. I’m betting on a bounceback for Eddie in his next healthy season, though the business side of the front office might not have much incentive to make that bet if his salary increases again. All things considered, Eddie may need to be added to the list of players we may have seen the last of in 2019 for the Twins. And yes Twins fans, despite my critical view of our left fielder, that makes me sad.

    https://twitter.com/CodyPirkl/status/1250783436211720192

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    In the event of a cancelled season, arbitration eligible players will receive the same salary in 2021 as they were due in 2020.

     

    With a salary of just $7.75M, I would bet that the Twins hang onto Rosario. With the cancelled season, I can’t imagine that the Twins will feel comfortable tossing Larnach/Rooker in as the starting OF. Especially with Marwin walking, the Twins could certainly stand to hang onto Rosario in his last arbitration season. IMO, a cancelled season only increases the likelihood that Eddie remains a Twin.

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    Every team will be in the same boat. And money will be tight, not knowing what 2021 will bring. I feel worse for players in the pipeline losing a year in their development life. Still wonder how minor league play will play into this whole televised season thing. I doubt that places like Rohcester and Chattanooga will be hotbeds of baseball. Minor league travel is worse than major league travel. Might be best to do just a couple of 3-4 week seasons. Kinda like Cape Cod league or something.

     

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    In the event of a cancelled season, arbitration eligible players will receive the same salary in 2021 as they were due in 2020.

    I must have missed that in the agreement previously made! I still wonder if the combo of Cave and Larnach/Kirilloff/Rooker are enough to dissuade the front office in favor of the additional losses of the 2020 season between both the players and the profits overall. Might come down to their confidence in the possible replacements.

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    I go a lump in my throat just reading the words Goodbye Eddie?  I've been a huge fan of Eddie all the way back to his days with the Beloit Snappers.  I first read about him when he narrowly edged out highly touted Miguel Sano for the team HR title in Elizabethton.  The outfield depth in the Twins minor league system may eventually leave Rosario the odd man out, but deep down I certainly hope Eddie is around for a number of years in a Minnesota Twins uniform.  I love his enthusiasm for the game, his aggressive style (which can be maddening at times-I get it.)  With Buxton's history of injuries, who knows what the future holds doe Eddie?

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    Rosario was never my favorite player, never really even close but I think that it would be sad to see him on any other team. Some players you just can't imagine anywhere else, and Rosario is one of those players.

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    I had missed the arbitration arrangement Matthew states for 2021 if there is no season. Makes sense. Regardless of that fact:

     

    1] Rosario had an OK year and was on pace for a really nice year until injury. We've all been down this arguement already. And what is the new statistic that was just written about here a month or so ago? I want to say it was weighted RBI? A measurement not just of RBI but taking advantage of said opportunities successfully, and it indicated he had a very good year, injury slide notwithstanding.

     

    2] Even if arbitration $ weren't "frozen" for 2021 if no season, the budget could surely allow for another approximately $3M to keep Rosario for at least another season. (Even with $ possibly coming off the books, even though that's not guaranteed due to possible re-signings).

     

    3] Even if Rooker, Larnach and Kirilloff had complete 2020 seasons, that certainly doesn't guarantee any of them are ready to step in for Rosario, though it seems highly likely. They still have to have healthy and productive seasons to seize opportunity. And Marwin is part of the fall back option and there is no guarantee he is re-signed. And at this point, we don't even know if milb will exist in any format even if MLB gets in an abbreviated season.

     

    I will be shocked if Rosario isn't with the Twins through 2021.

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    Even if arbitration wasn't officially frozen...how do you go in to an arbitration hearing asking for substantially more money if you didn't play?

     

    I think baseball is going to find a way to have some kind of a season; truncated, maybe played without fans in the stands, but I don't think the entire season will get wiped out, but maybe that's just me.

     

    It would be a tremendous shame if a player like Eddie Rosario never played another game in MN. 

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    I expect that Matt was assuming that arbitration numbers would be the same because they would be based on the same previous season as those awarded last winter.  To my knowledge, this wasn't included in the preliminary agreement worked out a few months ago.

     

    I expect in the real world, however, arbitration awards would go down.  Although there will be much uncertainty related to the 2021 season should 2020 not exist, one certainty will be that major league teams will be coming off large losses with many unknowns for 2021.  I expect an arbitrator will consider those unknowns.  I also expect both teams and most agents will also take those into consideration when setting their demands which will likely be lower. 

     

    And if we are saying goodbye to Eddie it will be a sad day in my baseball world. 

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    The Twins are going to need to cut payroll significantly next year. I think many teams in small and middle markets will be letting go of players like Rosario.

     

    It could a very odd structure of tiered salaries for the next year or two with players who have guaranteed money earning much more than those with expiring contracts unless some kind of agreement is made with the player’s association. Contracts like Donaldson’s are going to be a much bigger burden.

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    I expect that Matt was assuming that arbitration numbers would be the same because they would be based on the same previous season as those awarded last winter. To my knowledge, this wasn't included in the preliminary agreement worked out a few months ago.

     

    I expect in the real world, however, arbitration awards would go down. Although there will be much uncertainty related to the 2021 season should 2020 not exist, one certainty will be that major league teams will be coming off large losses with many unknowns for 2021. I expect an arbitrator will consider those unknowns. I also expect both teams and most agents will also take those into consideration when setting their demands which will likely be lower.

     

    And if we are saying goodbye to Eddie it will be a sad day in my baseball world.

    It was in the agreement.

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    Say what you want about Eddie, and maybe the numbers do not back up what I am about to say, but there is almost no one else I would want up in high leverage situation than him.  He thrives on "clutch" situations.  He seems to excel at them to, or maybe he just gets more chances not sure.  I know teams are always willing to pitch to him, assuming they can throw anything up there and he will chase, but he seems to come through.  Again, no numbers to back this up, just my perception.  

     

    That being said, I would welcome bringing in Kiroloff.  I expect big things from that kid. From moment they drafted him I thought he would be a great hitter.  He has done nothing to make me doubt that. 

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    The Twins are going to need to cut payroll significantly next year. I think many teams in small and middle markets will be letting go of players like Rosario.

     

    It could a very odd structure of tiered salaries for the next year or two with players who have guaranteed money earning much more than those with expiring contracts unless some kind of agreement is made with the player’s association. Contracts like Donaldson’s are going to be a much bigger burden.

    Hey, curious about your comment on the Twins needing to cut payroll next year. Is that based on existing payroll and arbitration numbers for 2021 etc, or is it based on current payroll and loses from an abbreviated 2020 season?

     

    Different sites I glance at have the 2020 payroll between $131-137M. They all seem to calculate slightly differently, but I don't believe any of the numbers I saw factor in the $10M from the Dodgers for this season. So just curious as to your thoughts.

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    Hey, curious about your comment on the Twins needing to cut payroll next year. Is that based on existing payroll and arbitration numbers for 2021 etc, or is it based on current payroll and loses from an abbreviated 2020 season?

    Different sites I glance at have the 2020 payroll between $131-137M. They all seem to calculate slightly differently, but I don't believe any of the numbers I saw factor in the $10M from the Dodgers for this season. So just curious as to your thoughts.

    It is the revenue loss this year that will drive the need to reduce the payroll. They are extended a little further than other similarly revenued teams so it will be harder to bounce back. I think they will take a hard look at every contract that is not guaranteed.

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    I think this hinges on what happens in the minors this year. I can't see the team banking on a prospect if they didn't get their development time in 2020.

    I think that Larnach and Kirilloff are both close to MLB ready. Furthermore, the front office has shown their willingness to trust guys like Cave or Wade until the big up and comers are ready by dangling Eddie on the trade market this winter.

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