Goats of the Twins First Third

While we now routinely use the acronym G.O.A.T. to signify greatness, this time the word is neither shortened or capitalized. Minnesota has gotten plenty from the best on their roster, but there’s been a few players that have left plenty to be desired.

In terms of fWAR, here’s who Minnesota will hope to get more from the rest of the way.

Alex Kirilloff -0.3 fWAR
If you expected someone to breakout this season there’s a pretty good argument that it should have or could have been Alex Kirilloff. He was coming off wrist surgery that was intended to fix the ailment sapping his performance and ending his season last year. Unfortunately, he’s dealt with the same pain and ultimately wound up with a trip back to Triple-A after posting a despicable .398 OPS through 10 games.

Obviously Minnesota needed him to either get right, or figure out how to play through something that seemingly isn’t still injured. The positive news here is that Kirilloff seems to have done just that. He’s heated up in a big way for St. Paul, and is beating the ball around the ballpark. Generating loud contact, driving gap doubles, and lifting home runs, there’s no reason this version of Minnesota’s former star rookie can’t help the club in a big way the rest of the season.

Emilio Pagan -0.6 fWAR
Acquired for Taylor Rogers, along with Chris Paddack, right before Opening Day from San Diego, Pagan has all but settled in as the Twins closer. While Pagan has recorded seven saves and owns a 3.00 ERA for Minnesota, the scary part is that things may get worse before they get better. A lot of Pagan’s negative WAR is generated from blown saves or late game situations. He pitches in high leverage, so any time things go south it is going to be in the worst way.

Pagan still owns a 6.15 FIP though, which suggests that his ERA is representative of an arm pitching well over its head. The walks remain an issue, even if the command isn’t now as bad as it was the first week. Given how many home runs he allows though, the additional traffic on the base paths will never be of benefit to him. Maybe Baldelli pushes him into middle inning relief for a while, but that would be reflective of the Twins finding more late inning arms.

Miguel Sano -0.7 fWAR
It’s relatively impressive Sano was able to generate such a negative impact in so little time. He’s played just 17 games this season for Minnesota, and his .379 OPS is laughable. If there was anything going his way it’s that he was crushing the ball and just not seeing the results. We won’t know where he’ll pick back up coming off surgery for a torn meniscus, and while the Twins have used non-traditional first basemen in his absence, they’ve been less of a zero in the lineup.

Sano has shown some of the best plate discipline in his career this season, and while there will likely be no certainties when he returns, the streaky hitter could throw one of his patented hot stretches in at the right time. Sano probably won’t be back for the Twins until July, but there’s worse things you could get for a stretch run than a power bat capable of making that type of an impact.

Although he has a 0.8 fWAR thus far, it is worth noting just how little Jorge Polanco has brought to the plate for Minnesota. A season after a career best 126 OPS+, he’s been worth just 102 OPS+ this season and has an OPS lower than that of soft hitting teammate Nick Gordon. Polanco has been a nice up the middle partner with superstar free agent Carlos Correa, but this lineup needs more from him the rest of the way.

On the flip side, I'd love to see Caleb Thielbar work into his expected numbers. His ERA is a gaudy 5.59 bit the 3.67 FIP suggests plenty of bad luck. He's been on the wrong end of a lot of issues this season, but Minnesota seeing his numbers normalize some would bring another veteran arm to the middle innings.

What are your thoughts? Who have you been most disappointed with this season for the Twins? Can they turn it around?