Future 40-Man Additions Might Play Into Trade Deadline Strategy

It's kind of a double edged sword to have a whole lot of good players/pitchers who have potential, but not enough room to protect all that you want. 

While I think it's safe to say the Twins had a great first couple of picks here in 2022, and there is the "just opened presents" in regard to hope for the remaining selections, they also have seen a lot of quality from the 2021 draft so far. But if you look a little further back at 2019 and 2018 you also see a pair of very good looking drafts.

It's those 2 drafts that are the issue here as a large majority of the names mentioned throughout the discussion come from those two years. There are some HS kids still in the lower minors who aren't close to ready yet, and who don't need protection yet. And I know people are tired of the whole lost 2020 season debate, but the truth is, for the Twins and everyone else, it WAS a lost season that has affected so many and yet the clock didn't stop ticking.

I think we all get wrapped up in prospect rankings and our team. And it's probably true right now the Twins aren't as highly ranked as other franchises since they don't seem to have those TOP prospects that appear to be elite. But those things can change quickly. Arraez was never considered anything close to elite. Nor was Miranda until last year. Steer is putting up similar numbers this year. Wallner may have jumped a couple levels, etc. So I would never discount DEPTH of talent in the system.

With the exception of the HS kids, and a couple guys who were basically drafted hurt as potential steals and working themselves up just now, 2018 and 2019 FILL AA and AAA. Some look great, some OK, a couple we're not sure yet. 

There's enough DEPTH of talent to move a number of pretty decent to good looking prospects in the system for help without devastating anything. You just hope you end up keeping the best ones. But letting a number of those young players go for nothing is far more damaging than actually trading some as part of packages to get something in return.

This is really tough, but none of the guys you list are here this year or contributing next - so package them and get someone in who can make a difference if another team is willing. 

I am don't have a subscription to Baseball America, but they just posted an article a couple of days ago, the name is Teams Rarely Regret Cost Of Trading For A Star Position Player.

Here is one snipit I can read. (Maybe the Twins should be going after a position player as well as a few relief pitchers)

For teams acquiring a star position player, the price has almost always been worth it in the last 30 years. For teams trading away players of that caliber, history shows it’s important to manage expectations: no matter how many years of control are left, no matter how touted the young big leaguers or prospects acquired in return are, no matter how much money is saved, teams overwhelmingly don’t win trades when they deal players at that level. In all but the rarest cases, the best they can hope for is that the deal comes out even.

12 hours ago, PatPfund said:

All of the players mentioned in the OP are viable trade assets of varying value. Sure, trade them if that helps the team (especially in getting a top arm), but there really is no "crunch", so don't trade now just to trade, or trade to fix a problem that doesn't exist yet. (We can also deal in a more measured atmosphere after the season and before the Rule 5 draft if needed.)

I didn't think so either until I actually looked at who would come off and who needed to be put on.  As I wrote earlier, there are 48 on the 40 man now and 10 that for sure need to come off.  Obviously, that only leaves 2 spots.  I came up with the list below  of 13 who arguably need to go on.  I believe that's a "crunch".

Matt Canterino
Matt Wallner
Simeon Woods-Richardson
Spencer Steer
Louie Varland
Sawyer Gibson-Long
Blayne Enlow
Brent Headrick
Edouard Julien 
Jair Camargo
Austin Schulfer
Caleb Hamilton
Evan Sisk

I would not argue that SGL / Headrick and Camargo probably don't need to go on the 40 man but we would still need to find room for 6 additional players. 

59 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I didn't think so either until I actually looked at who would come off and who needed to be put on.  As I wrote earlier, there are 48 on the 40 man now and 10 that for sure need to come off.  Obviously, that only leaves 2 spots.  I came up with the list below  of 13 who arguably need to go on.  I believe that's a "crunch".

Matt Canterino
Matt Wallner
Simeon Woods-Richardson
Spencer Steer
Louie Varland
Sawyer Gibson-Long
Blayne Enlow
Brent Headrick
Edouard Julien 
Jair Camargo
Austin Schulfer
Caleb Hamilton
Evan Sisk

I would not argue that SGL / Headrick and Camargo probably don't need to go on the 40 man but we would still need to find room for 6 additional players. 

Enlow is already on, doesn't take away from the point of your message.

I would not trade Kirilloff / Miranda and would be unlikely to trade Canterino / Wallner / SWR / Steer / Varland.  I would hope to get 2 good RPs with a pool to trade from of:

Yannier Cano
Jharel Cotton
Sawyer Gibson-Long
Brent Headrick
Edouard Julien 
Jair Camargo
Austin Schulfer
Cole Sands
Jovanni Moran
Ronny Henriguez

What do you think?  Would Julien + another prospect and SGL + another prospect net good 2 RPs?
 

@Major League Ready Say you need (well, want) 10 spots.

At the end of the season, the contracts of Urshela, Sanchez, Thielbar, Duffey, Joe Smith, Garlick, Bundy, Cotton, and Coulombe expire. The Twins are HIGHLY unlikely to pick up Sano's option. So all of these are no longer on the 40-man unless/until resigned. You don't resign Urshela unless you trade Miranda (and Steer). It's possible they pitch a deal to Sanchez early depending on their catching plans. The rest are arms in one of the worst bullpens in the AL and Bundy. There is zero incentive to lock those slots down. So there are 8 spots assuming you sign Sanchez.

Unless Dobnak shows he can pitch, they should waive him (but they'd have to eat money, so maybe not yet). They can remove Romero, though, so nine. Cano, Archer, Godoy, Strotman, and maybe Sands should prove more value, or they could be removed as well. Frankly Archer is going backward; unless he is open to a 'pen move, I don't want him back. Thats five more slots, so 14 total slots on the 40 man opened up.

Finally, you do need to take some risks; if you fill your 40-man with players who are not MLB-ready next year, you limit your in-season moves. Rule 5 draftees are only lost if they can't stick on the drafting team's 40-man all next year. If you put marginal talent on the 40-man, you might lose them forever next spring when injuries mean you have to expose them to waivers. The Twins system is not highly rated, so take some chances (we get to pick, too). 

Trade if it helps, don't if you are just dumping prospects for middle-level RPs.

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

@Major League Ready Say you need (well, want) 10 spots.

At the end of the season, the contracts of Urshela, Sanchez, Thielbar, Duffey, Joe Smith, Garlick, Bundy, Cotton, and Coulombe expire. The Twins are HIGHLY unlikely to pick up Sano's option. So all of these are no longer on the 40-man unless/until resigned. You don't resign Urshela unless you trade Miranda (and Steer). It's possible they pitch a deal to Sanchez early depending on their catching plans. The rest are arms in one of the worst bullpens in the AL and Bundy. There is zero incentive to lock those slots down. So there are 8 spots assuming you sign Sanchez.

Unless Dobnak shows he can pitch, they should waive him (but they'd have to eat money, so maybe not yet). They can remove Romero, though, so nine. Cano, Archer, Godoy, Strotman, and maybe Sands should prove more value, or they could be removed as well. Frankly Archer is going backward; unless he is open to a 'pen move, I don't want him back. Thats five more slots, so 14 total slots on the 40 man opened up.

Finally, you do need to take some risks; if you fill your 40-man with players who are not MLB-ready next year, you limit your in-season moves. Rule 5 draftees are only lost if they can't stick on the drafting team's 40-man all next year. If you put marginal talent on the 40-man, you might lose them forever next spring when injuries mean you have to expose them to waivers. The Twins system is not highly rated, so take some chances (we get to pick, too). 

Trade if it helps, don't if you are just dumping prospects for middle-level RPs.

Apparently, you did not see my earlier post in this thread.  I listed 10 players including all the ones you mentioned that have expiring contracts or were otherwise certain to come off the 40 man and I listed 6 others who were good candidates.  The point was that removing those certain to come off only gets us down to 38 and there are 7-8 that should be added..  

Garlick / Cotton / Romero and Colombe are arbitration eligible.  That's quite different than an expiring contract and all of these players are not key players but not all of them will be or should be non-tendered.  How can Dobnak show he can pitch unless he remains on the roster?  They will not and should not just flush Dobnak and if they do there is a reasonable chance he becomes a back of the rotation starter or good long reliever.  Having to make decisions on players like Columbe / Garlick and Dobnak would suggest a 40-man roster crunch.  Now, I think we can agree losing any of these players will not be remotely devastating, but depth has value which has been quite evident this year.

3 hours ago, PatPfund said:

@Major League Ready Say you need (well, want) 10 spots.

At the end of the season, the contracts of Urshela, Sanchez, Thielbar, Duffey, Joe Smith, Garlick, Bundy, Cotton, and Coulombe expire. The Twins are HIGHLY unlikely to pick up Sano's option. So all of these are no longer on the 40-man unless/until resigned. You don't resign Urshela unless you trade Miranda (and Steer). It's possible they pitch a deal to Sanchez early depending on their catching plans. The rest are arms in one of the worst bullpens in the AL and Bundy. There is zero incentive to lock those slots down. So there are 8 spots assuming you sign Sanchez.

Unless Dobnak shows he can pitch, they should waive him (but they'd have to eat money, so maybe not yet). They can remove Romero, though, so nine. Cano, Archer, Godoy, Strotman, and maybe Sands should prove more value, or they could be removed as well. Frankly Archer is going backward; unless he is open to a 'pen move, I don't want him back. Thats five more slots, so 14 total slots on the 40 man opened up.

Finally, you do need to take some risks; if you fill your 40-man with players who are not MLB-ready next year, you limit your in-season moves. Rule 5 draftees are only lost if they can't stick on the drafting team's 40-man all next year. If you put marginal talent on the 40-man, you might lose them forever next spring when injuries mean you have to expose them to waivers. The Twins system is not highly rated, so take some chances (we get to pick, too). 

Trade if it helps, don't if you are just dumping prospects for middle-level RPs.

Urshela, Sanchez, Duffey, Smith Garlick, Bundy, Cotton, Archer, Cano and Sano are all on the 26 man roster. (Also you understand that removing Dobnak doesn't open up a spot correct? taking him off the 60 day DL takes a spot away but cutting him or whatever doesn't free up a spot)

I am very confused how you take 10 guys off the major league roster and replace them with minor league prospects that need to be added to the 40 and since the 40 is full now some or all them will need to be added to the 26 man and how that wouldn't completely be considered another rebuilding year?

Not sure you understand but for every guy that is removed from the 40 and is on the 26 will need to be replaced with another player capable of playing in the majors. For example Urshela is removed the Twins need a major league guy to replace him, ok in this cases it is Steer, Garlick can be replaced by Wallner but the talk is next year is going to be better and the solution is replacing major leagues not only with prospects but prospects that just now need to be added to the 40. To me this is complete crazy talk.

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Garlick / Cotton / Romero and Colombe are arbitration eligible.  That's quite different than an expiring contract and all of these players are not key players but not all of them will be or should be non-tendered.  How can Dobnak show he can pitch unless he remains on the roster? 

Garlick is not someone they should worry about losing. Good bench player but those are not that difficult to sign. Cotton, Romero and Coulombe are pitchers who they should be trying to replace with better pitchers.

Dobnak hasn't pitched in 2 consecutive seasons. He might never pitch again. I believe they can still cut him at the end of this season and he won't have enough service time to reject a minor league assignment. That's a no-brainer. Get him off the roster and back to St. Paul. Nobody is going to pick up the $6.75M remaining on his contract.

What's crazy is people hyper-ventilating about the Rule 5 draft in July. The front office is savvy enough to figure it out, and no we won't be able to protect any player who might have a future MLB career, and no we don't have to, and no we shouldn't be basing any mid-season trade priorities on a 40-man "crunch".

Trade to help the team; if that involves a front-line pitcher, then a few to several of these "crunch" pieces will be gone. (Miranda? Steer? Wallner? Canterino? SWR? All of them? You are not going to get a game-changing piece by trading table scraps.)

And take a deep breath. The Twins minor league system is rated around 15th. Rule 5 players need to stay on the drafting team's roster the whole of the next season or be offered back. Unless he turns it around, is anybody thinking Sawyer Gibson-Long is MLB ready next year? Several mentioned CAN be exposed and probably won't get drafted the same way nobody claimed Smeltzer off waivers at the end of spring training.

And yeah, I would not offer arbitration to any of Cotton/Coulombe/Romero/Garlick. They are interchangeable parts in MLB. If the Twins can't do better, then they won't BE better next year.

And yeah, I get how a roster works. The point is, this is only a crisis if you try to manipulate things in-season. If you wait until after the season, it is simply the roster churn that happens every year. And after the season, many items now shifting all over the place will have set in place. (Ex: we'll actually know if SGL recovers enough to need protection rather than guessing 'what if'.)