Fun with Numbers: Byron Buxton is Playing Out of His Mind

With his mind set, his new found physical strength and stability (since last year) I don't see him slowing down much. Go Buck!

He'll hit a couple of rocky points where he doesn't see the ball well. Dr. Gast is right on and an encouraging sign for sustained success is his Hard Hit% and Chase rate Also he's pretty fast I hear...

In my fantasy baseball league, Buxton has the 5th most points of any outfielder in MLB, despite having at least 20 fewer at bats than the guys in front of him.

I know it is unlikely he will hit at the pace he is, but I would argue it is not a fluke he is doing it.  He is hitting everything hard, and the ones he is not hitting hard he is hitting in the right places most of the time.  

He has never hit like this for this long, but he also has never managed to stay of the breaking pitches out of the zone as well either.  For me the 2 most important numbers to look at in that list is his whiff rate and chase rate.  Both are very low, meaning he is staying of pitches out of the zone mostly, and is hitting the pitches in the zone.  If that can be sustained his high numbers can be sustained I believe.  

Now, the league will start to adjust to how he has adjusted and try to find ways to get him out.  However, so far this year the go to way to get him out, slider away, has not been working because he actually is taking that pitch.  Something in his head has clicked at the plate and he is seeing pitches better.  I also feel like his bat is faster this year, maybe the extra muscle has helped in that manner a lot. 

I will never figure out this WAR stat or even how they figure it but it's great to see Bux doing well. Now if he only can stay healthy. His defense has been great as well but we know that. In order for him to win MVP, the Twins will have to win or come close to winning the Division. That could still happen and would become more realistic if they can win 15 of the next 20-22 games.

It’s a beautiful thing - when he hits it hard it’s mostly uncatchable, sometimes out of the park, and when he hits it not so hard he beats out the throw to first.

More, please.

I know it is unlikely he will hit at the pace he is, but I would argue it is not a fluke he is doing it.  He is hitting everything hard, and the ones he is not hitting hard he is hitting in the right places most of the time.  

 

He has never hit like this for this long, but he also has never managed to stay of the breaking pitches out of the zone as well either.  For me the 2 most important numbers to look at in that list is his whiff rate and chase rate.  Both are very low, meaning he is staying of pitches out of the zone mostly, and is hitting the pitches in the zone.  If that can be sustained his high numbers can be sustained I believe.  

 

Now, the league will start to adjust to how he has adjusted and try to find ways to get him out.  However, so far this year the go to way to get him out, slider away, has not been working because he actually is taking that pitch.  Something in his head has clicked at the plate and he is seeing pitches better.  I also feel like his bat is faster this year, maybe the extra muscle has helped in that manner a lot. 

To clarify, those low numbers you see on the chase rate and whiff rate scales from Baseball Savant mean that he is worse than league average on both of those metrics. In other words, he is still chasing and whiffing more than most MLB hitters. Now, his stats in pretty much every other hitting category are obviously elite, so while he still might chase a little too much, he is making the most of the pitches he sees in or near the zone.

I imagine pitchers will notice this eventually and start trying to get him to chase more, which is when Buxton will need to be able to adjust or risk seeing his success drop off quickly. The next step in his evolution at the plate will need to be improved plate discipline which should lead to a higher walk rate. If he can make that adjustment without sacrificing too much of his power and aggressiveness, his success should be more sustainable long-term.