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  • How the Twins Addressed Their Biggest Weaknesses from 2022 This Offseason


    Nick Nelson

    After a promising start in 2022, the Minnesota Twins faded hard and wound up losing 84 games to finish in third place. 

    The front office's key imperative this offseason was to address the shortcomings that led to that downfall, positioning this year's team to weather inevitable storms and make it across the finish line atop the division.

    How've they done?

    Image courtesy of Scott Taetsch, Troy Taormina, Scott Galvin –USA Today Sports

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    Reviewing the Twins offseason up to this point after a flurry of January activity, some notable trends and focal points emerge. In sizing up the front office's moves this winter, it strikes me that there was a clear intent to address six key areas that factored into last year's fade, starting with the biggest one: 

    Better physical outcomes with a new head trainer.

    One of the first moves the Twins made this offseason was replacing head athletic trainer Michael Salazar with Nick Paparesta, a reputed leader in the field who'd spent the past 12 years in Oakland with the A's.

    It was a fitting top priority for the front office coming off a season that was completely wrecked by injuries, with unending recovery timelines and frustrating setbacks decimating the roster. The Twins were not a flawless team, as we'll cover below, but the level of physical attrition and number of days lost gave them no legitimate chance to hang on.

    To a large extent, injuries are uncontrollable. Training staffs tend to become scapegoats in circumstances where sheer bad luck is the prime culprit. But that's the nature of the beast, and as bad as things got last year, it can't hurt to bring in a fresh – yet seasoned – perspective.

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    Better pitching depth from the start.

    The pitching staff was definitely hurt by injuries last year, but not to the same degree as the lineup. No, the problem with the Twins' pitching staff last year was more foundational: On Opening Day, they had Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer as members of the starting rotation. On Opening Day, they had Tyler Duffey, Joe Smith, Jharel Cotton, Jhon Romero, and Josh Winder – owner of zero major-league innings – all as part of the bullpen. 

    This year the Twins will be much more structurally sound from the start on the pitching side. The return of Kenta Maeda, along with the acquisitions of Tyler Mahle and Pablo López, have surrounded Sonny Gray with a bevy of proven veterans. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who both pitched very well last year, push the rotation to six deep, while Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson have both proven ready to step in. Randy Dobnak is a wild card. 

    On the bullpen side, Jhoan Durán emerged as a force last year while Caleb Thielbar and Griffin Jax are both coming off outstanding seasons. Jorge López, if he returns to form, can give the Twins an unparalleled 1-2 punch alongside Durán in the late innings. Jorge Alcalá is back after missing almost all of last year, joining middle-relief options like Trevor Megill, Jovani Moran, and Danny Coulombe. Your mileage may vary on Emilio Pagán but he's a high-upside piece they don't need to rely on.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see another addition on the relief side (Michael Fulmer, come on down?), but as things stand, the 2023 Twins are in a much better position on pitching stability. 

    Dynamic contingencies and depth in the position player corps.

    If you want to stir up some bad memories, I've got a recommendation to fulfill your sadistic urge: go back and pull up a random Twins starting lineup from last August or September. The club's utterly ravaged position-player corps regularly left Rocco Baldelli submitting sad lineups with little hope to compete. 

    Nick Gordon and Gio Urshela trading off at cleanup. Jake Cave and Mark Contreras starting against lefties. Gilberto Celestino hitting fifth or sixth, repeatedly. It was ugly, and something none of us want to experience again. The front office is doing everything it realistically can to prevent it.

    Kyle Farmer and Michael A. Taylor are borderline starting-caliber players and top-shelf backups. They both provide experience, flexibility, and defensive prowess to help keep things chugging along in a variety of injury scenarios. The Twins are stacked with options in the corners and that's before you account for their prospects nearing readiness. 

    Presently, it's kind of hard to see how someone like Gordon or Trevor Larnach is even going to find his way to steady at-bats. Things will change, as we know, but the Twins are well prepared for that eventuality. Even with their 2022 leader in plate appearances gone, Minnesota is very strong on depth across the board. 

    Improved hitting against left-handed pitchers.

    Southpaws were a perpetual pain point for the Twins last year, holding the team to a .240/.310/.391 overall slash line while regularly shutting down poorly optimized lineups. This owed partially to injuries, especially later on, but was also a result of poor planning. Kyle Garlick can mash lefties and is a nice piece to have on hand, but you don't want to be primarily dependent on him in that role as they were last year. 

    This year, Garlick will likely open in Triple-A as ready-made depth for the same role. Meanwhile, the big-league club is significantly more balanced on the bench. Taylor could hardly be described as a "lefty masher" but he's solid against them, and should reduce the need for lefty-hitting outfielders to start against same-siders.

    The big add here is Farmer, whose defensive flexibility will allow him to plug in all over and start against almost all left-handed pitchers, against whom he has a .288/.345/.492 career slash line (including .309/.380/.568 last year).

    Run prevention via defensive improvements.

    You might feel the Twins were not emphatic or aggressive enough in their approach to upgrading a pitching staff that ranked 14th in runs allowed and remains plagued by question marks. You'd have a fair point.

    But the name of the game isn't pitching well – it's preventing runs. While performance on the mound obviously plays a major role, defense is also a big factor in this equation. The Twins weren't necessarily bad in this area last year, ranking 12th in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved thanks in large part to CF/RF, but they could stand to get better. 

    In 2023, they're poised to field one of the best defensive units in the league. Buxton and Correa return as elite up-the-middle defenders, and are joined by glove-first catcher Christian Vázquez. Newcomer Joey Gallo adds a standout fielder to the corner mix. Max Kepler provides another top-shelf glove if he sticks around, and if he goes, Larnach's a very good defender in his own right. 

    Alex Kirilloff is a superior first baseman to Luis Arraez (Gold Glove hub-bub aside), and we won't see Arraez's sub-par defense at second or third, which is a benefit through this lens. 

    Even beyond the starting lineup, we find defensive strength in the Twins' depth. Taylor is a great center fielder whose range is elite in the outfield corners. Farmer is a capable shortstop who excels at the infield corners. Jeffers is a glove-first backup to a glove-first starter. 

     

     

     

    Greater catching stability.

    Speaking of Jeffers and Vázquez, the presence of these two puts the Twins in a much better position behind the plate than they were last year, when Minnesota backstops collectively posted a .629 OPS and just 1.8 fWAR. 

    Dealing away Mitch Garver and Ben Rortvedt left the Twins woefully short on high-level catching depth. When Jeffers went down, they were forced to lean on Gary Sánchez as a starter before turning over the reins to no-hit veteran Sandy León after grabbing him from Cleveland's Triple-A club. 

    Bringing in Vázquez makes a profound difference in this regard, giving the Twins two starting-caliber catchers to buttress against an injury to either. The addition of Tony Wolters on a minor-league deal also supplies the Twins with some experienced depth at Triple-A; Wolters has played more than 400 games in the majors, albeit only 16 since 2020.

    Additions like Vázquez and Wolters might not be the most exciting, but like many of the other moves mentioned above, they had strategic underpinnings geared toward shoring up the weaknesses that brought down the 2022 Twins. 

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    Great article Nick!!  I have been very critical of this Twins Front office in back to back years, complaining that they seemingly approached each off season either without a plan or a slave to a specific priority and thus chained to inaction while mid-level FA's that could have been a good fit flew off the board.

    However, I think this has been by far their BEST off season and while there was some luck involved with Correa this F.O. displayed patience and resolve as the Correa situation evolved and eventually came out the winner.  I could nitpick and say that Adam Duval would have been the RH bat counter to Gallo but I won't.  There are still "ifs" that need to pan out, primarily the health of Buxton and Correa, Kirilloff and Larnach, and just about everybody on the pitching staff, but This F.O has built a team with a LOT more depth and better options to begin spring training and with a pipeline that includes Royce Lewis, Eduard Julien and Brooks Lee there could be impact bats that augment the lineup at some point this season.  

    I still don't think the Twins are done either.  I'd like to take a flyer on Alex Reyes, the quintessential "boom or bust" arm in a bullpen and I still think Kepler gets traded before spring training.  It could be a fun baseball season in the upper midwest.  

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    17 hours ago, Trov said:

    When you look at Gallo and his defense, looking just at defensive WAR is a poor way to judge his overall defense.  First, the name itself is above replacement, meaning you are judging him to the average defender.  So by definition, having a positive WAR makes him above average.  Where he was been above average on defense is right field mainly.  When you look at his seasons playing RF, he is actually the majority of his dWAR.  The early part of his career he was playing 3rd, where he had negative defense, hence the move to OF.  When you compare him to other well known or regarded defending right fielders, he is on par with them.  For the most part even the best defensive right fielders are still only a plus 1 to 2 dWAR in any given season.  Left field is similar.  It is the CF that makes a huge difference in dWAR.  However, I think dWAR for an outfielder is hard to really quantify.  

    Think about it, how do you really measure it?  When a guy guns someone out do we give them a plus .1?  What happens if no one runs on them because their arm is too good?  Does that get you any plus or since no one tried we really cannot quatify?  How about throwing to wrong base allowing a guy to advance do we give a negative .1 for that?  

    I think most of what BR for dWAR looks into for it is range and the like, if you look at how they measure it that seems to be the way they go, as it is based on defensive runs saved, and zone rating, two different metrics.  I believe they do not look a ton at the little things a guy can do for defense.  No one is saying Gallo is a super high all time defender, but when you compare him to many others, he is better than most.  

    His strike outs are an issue, but he still walks a ton, it is not like he is just up there 3 pitches sit back on the bench. 

    It's good to question these things.

    Let's look at three guys who played a similar amount of games in 2022, didn't play much and hit terribly when they rarely played.  

    Jermaine Palacios 25 games - OPS+ 19

    bWAR -0.7

    Miguel Sano 29 Games - OPS+ 3

    bWAR -0.8 

    Mark Contreras 27 Games - OPS+ 24

    bWar - 0.0

    What did Mark Contreras do in those 49 defensive chances in the OF (less than 2 a game) to avoid the negative dash in front of his bWAR number? Was it one catch in a low probability zone? Was it seven catches in a low probability zone? 

     

     

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    17 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

    I don't think the Twins have done enough to fix the pitching staff to be a better than .500 team. But, just like last year, I like the offense. I liked the Arraez trade. I think we have some nice trade chips at the deadline that will help us in the future. But this team is too far away right now. And we have zero depth. 

    I feel 100% the opposite. I worry about the offense. I am happy with the pitching. 

    It's got to be hard for the front office to please both of us simultaneously. 😄

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    11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

    I TRY not to respond initially when moves are made...work helps with that, LOL...as I want to remove the "fan" in me and try to be the best "logical" amateur GM I can be. I don't like every move made, or not made, thus far in the offseason. But by and large, I have to say, I see the "method of madness" in just about every move made so far and can't help but like what's been done.

    1] HOWEVER Correa ended up in Minnesota, it solidified the SS spot, changed the entire complextion of the team, and suddenly gave free reign to the movement of high, young talent to play and contribute throughout the roster now and the next few years. Correa is not a new addition, but he adds so much, and offers up so much more flexibility. 

    2] Arraez being moved HURTS, as a fan, and questions about replacing him. The timing stinks because as I've stated previously, SOMEONE good was going to be moved NOW, or next offseason. The timing stinks because the best replacements for what he brings offensively don't appear ready yet. But you can't get something without giving up something.

    3] My knee jerk reaction to Gallo was filled with angst. Period. I'm still not sure I would have gone that route. His 2022 was a nightmare. Period. But if you take a step back and actually look at his career you will see some VERY INTERESTING numbers. He became a full time ML ballplayer in 2017. (I'm deliberately ignoring the position/defensive debate). From 2017 to 2021, five ML seasons, the abbreviated 2020 season, for whatever reason and weirdness, was his worst year. But over that 5yrs, even including the poor 2020, his quadruple slash line is impressive!

    .209/ .337/ .493/ .830 with an AVERAGE HR total of 30 dingers even including the short and not very good 2020.

    Knock the BA all you want...and it isn't good to be sure...but the OB, the SLG, the OPS, the HR numbers just can't be denied. An .830 OPS is pretty damn good, however you achieve it. His DOWNFALL, was the trade to NY in 2021. He hasn't produced the same since then, through 2022. So either he just suddenly lost it, or he just didn't fit it, never felt comfortable, lost his confidence, whatever, etc. But his numbers are there for anyone to take the time to look at. The FO is banking on the "Texas" version of Gallo in 2023 with a change of scenery vs the 1 1/2 of NY and LA to provide offense, solid to better defense, and maybe be a bridge for the young talent. Again, not my favorite move, but I see now what they are doing.

    4] LOVE the Vazquez signing as a high quality catcher with a solid bat. Reminds me so much of the Castro signing to help the staff and work with Garver, and alleviate some pressure. Won't again re-state my opinions on Jeffers, but at still only 25yo, and with legitimate STICK potential, Jeffers has 500+ ML AB and potential. I see a parallel here.

    5] Gray, Mahle, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, and the depth of SWR and Varland beyond those 6 is pretty great. Nick merely mentioned Dobnak as a possible surprise contributor. It might happen. It might not. Why so much angst given to a guy who was pretty good as a backend option before his finger injury? He was pretty solid previously. The rotation depth is the best in years. Much better than the start of 2022. The rotation is FAR better today than 2022.

    6] I still think the Twins should be grabbing someone to enhance the PEN. I think Lopez will be just fine. He's probably not as outstanding as he was with the Orioles, but is better than he showed after the trade. His stuff is too good, A fully healthy Alacala, building on his 2nd half of 2021, could make a huge difference. Moran has a lot of potential. But if the FO really wants to make a difference, there are still a handful of solid BP arms out there to add, and not just trust in young arms to be ready. I'm still surprised Fulmer hasn't been brought on board. Chafin and Hand are still out there as well if they'd prefer to add a LH option. Or maybe add 2 arms? The payroll is sitting about $150M, give or take. Right now, they are missing opportunity. 

    7] I'd take Farmer over Urshela for versatility sake.

    8] Taylor was NOT the direction for an OF I initially thought of. But I love the addition. Great defense, speed, a completely average hitter, but also a legitimate CF/OF defensive option.

    HAS THE FO BUILT A BETTER TEAM TODAY THAN 2022:

    YES. The rotation and bullpen are better, with depth. The defense looks strong, with the agreed on Miranda proving himself at 3B and AK being ready at 1B, and early accounts saying he's fine with "natural" soreness from rehabbing and getting his swings in. Is catching and defense better overall? Yes.

    Should the Twins be done? I'd say NO. They've done a good job. But unless they are just CERTAIN about a few question marks, go out and grab a BP arm, or two. The payroll is only $150M ish. STOP being foolish about Pagan, and learn from previous lessons. Move him or DFA for for Fulmer or similar. I don't think they are done yet, but I like most of what they have done to this point. 

     

    Great post Doc. Thanks.

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    Need to be more specific when you say you don't trust "Lopez": Pablo or Jorge?

    I think the people who are so down on Jeffers value need to look at the league a little more broadly: the position is a little thin and there aren't that many teams that have 2 quality catchers. He may not have a great arm, but he does well enough blocking the plate & receiving the ball. Adding Vazquez means we have 2 quality catchers and it's an improvement on the Jeffers/Sanchez/Leon group, since Leon can't hit at all and Sanchez never found his power stroke. figuring out catching depth was a big question after last season and it's hard to say they didn't address it. No, they don't have anyone in the system that's going to be competing for time soon, but Jeffers is under team control for another few years, vazquez is signed for 4 years, so there's time to work on the next generation.

    SS had to get addressed since Royce won't be available until midseason, and they were able to bring back Correa. Done and done. Farmer is a nice backup with positional flexibility. For the first time in a long time, we don't have to wonder who will play SS for the next several years. 

    I felt like they had depth in the rotation, but needed top end improvement. It's an interesting question as to whether P. Lopez gets there. If he's first half PL, then he definitely passes the "Better Than Sonny Gray" test. If he's second half PL, then...doesn't look like it. So I have to say they did better to make the rotation deeper and more...injury resistant? 

    I don't think they've addressed our weakness against LHP particularly well; the Gallo move isn't where I wanted them to go in the OF, though his career splits aren't bad against LHP. Farmer helps, but it might be asking a lot. Having Garlick be depth in AAA rather than needing to be counted on all season is good, and better health generally will help.

    The bullpen looks a bit better than the start of last season: we know what Duran can do, rather than hope it'll work. Jax showed he could be effective too, and Jorge Lopez certainly has the ability and will likely be better not having to deal with being traded. Thielbar is proven, Moran is talented, and thank god we're not counting on Pagan to be a major contributor. If Alcala gets healthy it looks pretty strong, though I wish they had another guy who could consistently throw 2 innings every 2-3 days. And I really wish they hadn't kept Pagan. Talking themselves into "fixing" him feels like sunk cost fallacy to me, but overall the bullpen looks ok.

    I think they made several moves that tried to raise the floor and address depth, and that matters. I tend to agree with the Falvey/Levine philosophy of trying to give as few ABs and innings to bad players as possible. I thought they should have looked to move Kepler (especially after adding Gallo), but I definitely agree with the idea of not having to reach so far down into the minors that you're playing your 10th choice in the OF...especially when the 8th or 9th choice is out there too. (hell, the twins got all the way down to 12th pick when they sent Beckham out there and grabbed Billy Hamilton off the street)

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    Is Archer a possibility for the bullpen?  Would he accept that role?  IDK....but he seems like a guy at this point in his career that could be valuable throwing an inning or two in relief.  He seemed to do well the first time through the batting order and than his stuff would go away.  It would seem his fastball velo might tick up a bit if he knew he was only throwing an inning.  His FB/Slider combo seems more suited for the bullpen anyway.   Finally, he seemed to be a really sharp guy who got along well in the clubhouse.  Just a thought.  

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    1 hour ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

    Is Archer a possibility for the bullpen?  Would he accept that role?  IDK....but he seems like a guy at this point in his career that could be valuable throwing an inning or two in relief.  He seemed to do well the first time through the batting order and than his stuff would go away.  It would seem his fastball velo might tick up a bit if he knew he was only throwing an inning.  His FB/Slider combo seems more suited for the bullpen anyway.   Finally, he seemed to be a really sharp guy who got along well in the clubhouse.  Just a thought.  

    I'm not sure he could hold up there either. With his hip and other injuries I just don't see him as a guy who can sit out in the bullpen and then fairly quickly get ready to pitch.

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    11 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

    I'm not sure he could hold up there either. With his hip and other injuries I just don't see him as a guy who can sit out in the bullpen and then fairly quickly get ready to pitch.

    That's a real possibility.....hadn't heard if the hip was a chronic thing or not. His arm seemed to hold up pretty well.

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    I will remain highly critical of the Arraez trade. I think it is one of the riskiest trades the Twins have--maybe the worst since the Pressley debacle. Of course, I could be wrong, but there are gambles that are far less risky than trading away probably the hitter with the best eye in baseball, who led the league in BA and was an all-star to boot. I'm always skeptical of trading away proven talent for pitching...the Twins have a very bad record in this regard. (I'm always thinking, "What does Miami believe about upside and durability of Lopez that the Twins don't?") I hope I'm wrong, but I think it is a bad trade.

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