Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • Front Office Facing Pitching Problems


    Ted Schwerzler

    The Minnesota Twins established a new front office under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine with the expectation that organizational pitching woes would be averted. It started that way, but things flopped hard in 2021.

    Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Across the division in Cleveland, Falvey grew a reputation for being able to develop pitching. Minnesota needed to overhaul that aspect of their development, and the early returns were promising. Despite the Bomba Squad emerging in 2019, Minnesota also became the best pitching version of itself that the franchise had seen in years. Taylor Rogers was elite, Tyler Duffey was transformed, and a number of fliers worked out.

    Enter 2021 and things couldn’t be further from that reality. This Twins club owns the 29th overall fWAR mark from their pitching staff, and both starters and relievers have been collectively terrible. The lineup took a bit to get going, but it hasn’t been an issue for weeks. With the White Sox now having all but ended Minnesota’s chances in the year ahead, a look at 2022 puts both Falvey and Levine squarely on the hot seat.

    Given the amount of talent eyeing a return on this roster, and the unexpected nature of these results, a full rebuild should not be the course of action in 2022. Reloading and trying it again with some new pieces makes all the sense in the world. What the front office must not do again however, is look to shop in the bargain bin and think the process will entirely translate into results.

    I have long harped on the infrastructure brought in by this front office as being exceptional. That still rings true. Wes Johnson is a good pitching coach, and throughout the farm there’s intelligent instructors. At some point though, you can’t bank entirely on a blueprint squeeze more juice from an already cashed fruit. J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker were fine back-end additions, but they both relied entirely on depth with nothing done to raise the water level.

    From the vantage point we have now, walking through this smoldering warzone, Falvey has virtually nothing to show for this season. The plethora of waiver claims all failed to pan out, save for the small sample of Luke Farrell. Happ and Shoemaker have been terrible. Randy Dobnak was extended, then optioned, and has never had a real defined role. On the farm, each of the top prospects has now gone down with arm issues, likely due to the year off. Yes, Josh Winder and Jordan Balazovic look good, but there’s more reason to be cautious than excited at this point.

    In the year ahead it will be on the Twins to use their depth as a fall back plan rather than seeing it as a source of reliance. Signings like Happ and Shoemaker indicated a belief one or both would soon be bumped as prospects came for their spots. Now Shoemaker is gone entirely, and the lack of options becomes even more glaring with yet another miss added to the books. Jose Berrios has been good, but not yet elevated to the next step, and now the talk of trading him lands even more into a questionable realm for me.

    Over the winter the plan has to be pitching, spending on it, and making sure it’s right. Relief arms are generally fickle year over year. Expecting Alexander Colome to fall this hard wasn’t a good bet. In 2022 you can reshuffle that group and bring in new faces, but they can’t be supplemented with a bunch of fall back options just ran out in case of emergency. The starting staff needs a legit arm that slots in to the top three, and that’s on top of paying or at least keeping Berrios.

    One bad season in the midst of such turnaround isn’t going to cost the front office their jobs, but there is plenty of reason to question why Derek Falvey hasn’t come through with his calling card should we see two years’ worth of these results. It’s time to right this ship, fix it, and prove the belief has been warranted. Dollars, development, whatever path you want to take, pitching can not be a problem for the Twins in the year ahead.

    MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
    — Latest Twins coverage from our writers
    — Recent Twins discussion in our forums
    — Follow Twins Daily via TwitterFacebook or email

    MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
    — Latest Twins coverage from our writers
    — Recent Twins discussion in our forums
    — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
    — Become a Twins Daily Caretaker

     Share


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

    Just to be clear......if Winder and/or others come up and show something....that's great. I've said all along this is the year that I will start judging their development practices. But if they haven't done anything by the end of year 5....ugh. 

    So, ya, still early to say one way or the other, but so far, not good.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Just taking a look at things, I'm softening my criticism, but just slightly. The bat-heavy drafting has been criticized, but looking at the drafts since 2017, it looks like Griffin Canning was the only real usable rotation piece they actually had a chance at drafting, and he's pitched like maybe a #4. That's not to say other pitchers won't pan out, just that it's unlikely any would be helping the team right now.

    Also, it looked like they inherited a windfall of pitching prospect talent in Romero, Gonsalves, Graterol and Stewart. They unpopularly, but in the end wisely, pulled the plug on three of those guys early. 

    Still, other clubs have found a way to build a sustainable and young rotation in that time, and that's exactly what they were hired to do.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    17 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

    Odorizzi was a solid acquisition in 2018 (and is starting to pay off for the Astros now too, maybe we should have kept him?). Pineda had been good when he was on the field until recently, and Hill was all right in 2020 too.

    Odorizzi gave us one solid year out of 3, and Pineda a few good months at  time out of 4.  I really can't say how Hill would have done over 162 games; 60 wasn't much of a sample.  I guess that is what I meant by bombed.  I always hope for much more than what I just describe when we shell out the kind of money we have for this type of free agent.  If they are going to take credit for the success, they have to take the heat for the lack of it as well.  But I always appreciate another perspective. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    It's a disappointing season. To say the least. Almost everything that could go wrong after the first seven games did go wrong. Biggest disappointment is Sano. After that, the pitchers you name above. We still don't know if Buxton can stay healthy. Berrios is a free agent in a year. Kepler regressed. I haven't bothered to watch a game in weeks. How much the pandemic year has to do with all this is uncertain, but every team is in the same boat. For Falvey, the big question is whether to build next year's team hoping to compete or blow it up with 2023 in mind as the next competitive window.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I understand the problem. You don't want to hand out 2 - 3 year contracts if the kids are going to be here next year.  So you tread water and hope it works (it did not).   The cupboard was bare when they were hired (or almost  so), so a 5 year window is about right.  They lost last year, so next year is 5 and  we should start seeing pitchers arrive and some will make it and some will not.  After next year we will know.

    We don't know if either Buxton or Berrios will sign a long term deal.  If neither will, we will have to trade them, as the return of 0 or little will really put this franchise back.  Still need to get the hardest thing to get, which is more possible front line pitching .  

    End of next year of 2023 we will know if this FO is a success or you next to find the next FO to fix the problem

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    They've made some horrible mistakes.  Anderson, Gil, and Ynoa are three they just threw away as if they had no value, and there are others who haven't yet climbed to the point where we know.  Ugly.  Ober, Sands, and Winder appear to be their successes, outpitching expectations, but when you think of it, do they make up for guys they gave away?  Couldn't they have all of it?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    3 hours ago, beckmt said:

    I understand the problem. You don't want to hand out 2 - 3 year contracts if the kids are going to be here next year.  So you tread water and hope it works (it did not).   The cupboard was bare when they were hired (or almost  so), so a 5 year window is about right.  They lost last year, so next year is 5 and  we should start seeing pitchers arrive and some will make it and some will not.  After next year we will know.

    We don't know if either Buxton or Berrios will sign a long term deal.  If neither will, we will have to trade them, as the return of 0 or little will really put this franchise back.  Still need to get the hardest thing to get, which is more possible front line pitching .  

    End of next year of 2023 we will know if this FO is a success or you next to find the next FO to fix the problem

    Actually, I don't know how bare the cupboards were coming in.  The Twins total record in Molitor's last two years, and this FO's first two years was 163 and 161.  Anytime a team hangs around the .500 mark the cupboards can't be too bare.  They sold off all the goodies in the cupboards the first two years trying to get the prospects we are all looking at now, and used a healthy payroll increase from Pohlad to sign free agents who helped bring a 307 home run season; coupled with the fact we got 57 games with Detroit, KC, and Chicago before they decided to beef up, and we pulled off a 101 win season.  But we all knew the 307 home runs were going to dry up, and we were going to have to start bringing up all these prospects we built the farm around.  Well, based on where we are today, the time is now and I don't know what the future holds, but I have to say I am a little nervous when I look at today.  And I will continue to say you can't take credit for '19 and not take the heat for '21.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Back in 2016 Falvey's promise was "a sustainable and championship-caliber team and organization that Twins fans across Twins Territory will be proud of".  I'm the little kid in the back seat of the car - are we there yet? are we there yet? are we there yet?

    We ain't there yet.  Lack of a discernible pitching pipeline and reliance on astute short-term signings isn't looking very sustainable right now.  The youngest guy on the pitching staff who is delivering positive value is Berrios (Ryan's guy, need I point out), and he isn't actually young anymore.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    3 hours ago, Mark G said:

    Actually, I don't know how bare the cupboards were coming in.  The Twins total record in Molitor's last two years, and this FO's first two years was 163 and 161.  Anytime a team hangs around the .500 mark the cupboards can't be too bare.  They sold off all the goodies in the cupboards the first two years trying to get the prospects we are all looking at now, and used a healthy payroll increase from Pohlad to sign free agents who helped bring a 307 home run season; coupled with the fact we got 57 games with Detroit, KC, and Chicago before they decided to beef up, and we pulled off a 101 win season.  But we all knew the 307 home runs were going to dry up, and we were going to have to start bringing up all these prospects we built the farm around.  Well, based on where we are today, the time is now and I don't know what the future holds, but I have to say I am a little nervous when I look at today.  And I will continue to say you can't take credit for '19 and not take the heat for '21.

    Outside of Rogers and Berrios, I do not believe there is a long term pitcher left from the Ryan era (I know about Jax, just do not think he is any more that a 5th starter, long man now).  All the next wave has come in the last 5 years most of it drafted in 2017, 2018.  With the current injuries we will see how it works out, but you can never have enough pitching.  

    Next two years will tell,   if the pitching is still bad we will be looking at starting over.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Funny: what took them so Long.. I predicted this to be a down season.. figured they Might win 81. Why should anyone buy into the Hype. Look at the Line up. Much of the core was built by Mr. Bill Smith.. or Mr. Ryan and all they did was spend some of the Po'lad money to flesh it out. Show me their success at the one thing they were brought into do: PITCHING..  And i have a question: Could it be the Twins implemented the no sticky rule the MLB was going to enforce before season? is it possible that this is the cause for loss of velocity and effectiveness?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    On 7/2/2021 at 7:10 PM, Mark G said:

    Actually, I don't know how bare the cupboards were coming in.  The Twins total record in Molitor's last two years, and this FO's first two years was 163 and 161.  Anytime a team hangs around the .500 mark the cupboards can't be too bare.  They sold off all the goodies in the cupboards the first two years trying to get the prospects we are all looking at now, and used a healthy payroll increase from Pohlad to sign free agents who helped bring a 307 home run season; coupled with the fact we got 57 games with Detroit, KC, and Chicago before they decided to beef up, and we pulled off a 101 win season.  But we all knew the 307 home runs were going to dry up, and we were going to have to start bringing up all these prospects we built the farm around.  Well, based on where we are today, the time is now and I don't know what the future holds, but I have to say I am a little nervous when I look at today.  And I will continue to say you can't take credit for '19 and not take the heat for '21.

    To say the cupboards were bare coming in is an insult to bare cupboards. We were relying on the likes of Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone, and Ricky Nolasco three days out of five, and the best we had in the pipeline were now-noted MLB players JT Chargois, Adelberto Mejia, Alex Meyer, and Alex Wimmers. I think people forget how bleak the outlook really was when Falvey and Levine came in.

    Sure, the guys we're all waiting on now might go the way of Wimmers, but it sure looks more likely than not that at least a couple of them will stick near the top of the next several years' rotations and you just couldn't reasonably think the same about what Falvey and Levine inherited.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites




    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
    Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

    Guest
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

    Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...