For Better or For Worse: Twins Success Tied to Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa's Health

If Buxton is healthy enough to play 120-130 games the Twins run away with the Division.

But this is rarified air, if not a unicorn.

I am not a concerned about C4's health.  Unless he gets plunked in the hand again.

I think it would be great for the Twins and MLB in general if Buxton can stay healthy and produce for a full season along the numbers he has been teasing.  What was it 4WAR in 50% of the games?  8 WAR and you are in the MVP conversation.

Sure, absolutely the fortunes of this team will swing on the health of our two best players. That’s not unusual, but it’s fair to say the Twins are relatively more long on those two players’ health than other clubs might be with their two best players.

Having said that, we shouldn’t look past the health of the three players comprising the core of the FO’s 2023 strategy: Gray, Mahle and Maeda.  If those three are healthy - let’s say, pitching combined over 450 innings - this team could go a long way even if Buxton and/or Correa only play 80 games apiece.

Said another way, if Buxton and Correa each played 130+ games and those three throw less than a total of 325 innings (and, btw, that unfortunately is not an unreasonable expectation by any means), Buxton and Correa’s good health won’t matter. We do not have the starter or BP depth to overcome that. That’s why it’s important to get one more solid, reliable innings eater starter. 

also, I take exception to how this was worded:

"His biggest long-term injury concern has become his lower leg, which was surgically repaired in 2014."

It has never been an issue as a player in the Majors.  Didn't this happen while he was in the minors?  

I think the issue with Carlos that should concern you was his back issues.  But I think he addressed that with his conditioning and preparation.

I feel like the FO is taking the gamble in the next 6 years they can have at least 1 or 2 seasons both play 120+ games and are available in the playoffs with a decent to good young group of supporting players to make a deep run. With both of them the way they've been I don't hate the idea of it. With the payroll they have it's probably the most likely scenario to bring a championship. Obviously pitching has been an issue but there's enough depth to the rotation its not impossible to have 3 or 4 guys develop into worthwhile starters in that 6 year window. 

With no salary cap in baseball, this is the pathway for the Twins to win a championship. It's not fun or sometimes fair, but taking these gambles on elite players in free agency finally gives us the chance for young cores to have better roster balance. Next step is actually investing in pitching.

I continue to believe that the most serious injury concern the Twins have is not either of these two, rather, Alex Kirilloff.  Yes, Buxton playing 130 games likely puts the Twins in the playoffs.  But if AK can play 130+ games I am confident he will be one of the better hitters in baseball.  Fortunately, early reports are that he is swinging the bat pain free.

An offense with Arraez, Buxton, Correa, Polo and AK will put the Twins into the playoffs.  Not worried about the pitching because I believe they are at least 8 deep with starters who are or will be competent big league starters.  

Buxton is concerning, very much so because he started 51 games in CF last season. I'm hopeful that Byron is ready to escape the torrent of injuries to actually stay on the field. He is still young, athletic, and strong.

Correa has to stay focused on maintaining the routine to keep the back issues away. Otherwise he is good to go.

I agree with those who mention the availability of Kirilloff for the duration of the year, and add Jorge Polanco. Still, the two stars are Buxton and Correa, picks #1 and #2 with the talent and skills to attract attention across the country. Their presence is key, for sure.

This could be the case with any team. Take the top two players and play them both half a season. Chances are they are no longer serious contenders. However if our top two players can give us 130 or more games each and be healthy for playoffs. Lookout!