Five Key Improvements for 2015

1)  Joe Mauer wasn't, isn't, nor should be considered "the straw the stirs the drink".  True, if his BAVG improves 50 points the team scoring will improve.  But that statement works for every position.  Mauer isn't what's keeping this team from winning 90+ games--but his salary suggests that he should be!

 

2)  Substandard defense has demonstrably hurt.  But how many changes will the Twins make?  Expecting Arcia to improve is wistful.  Better positioning would help--but this management team has yet to tinker much with OF alignment.  CF--who?  We need to remove the rose-colored glasses here, none of the present candidates will defend to the level Twins fans have come to enjoy.  Buxton won't be spending much (if any) time with the Twins next year.  2016, well that's not this thread.  Santana is fast but doesn't have an OF "knack".  Plus his throws, while strong, are far too often inaccurate.  Hicks is just plain overrated.  Schafer can play the field, but has no arm, and is likely the best defensive option--but will the Twin opt for defense or offense?  Or perhaps neither (Hicks).  Anybody would be better than Willingham.

There will be improvement--but how much is TBD.  A top free agent would help--but how likely is that to happen?

 

3)  The amount of improvement to tough to gauge--it will improve but how much will depend on defensive improvement.  Earlier scoring by the offense would probably help too.  I don't think they will be 29th next year, but 19th is in the cards.  I firmly believe that a relaxation of "the pitch count rule" will help and also help the bullpen. 

But can/will the Twins be flexible on this issue?

 

4)  Probably reflects that Twins really were a weak team.  Improve the team, improve the home record.

 

5)  Fundamentals.  It seems to me you really mean playing situational baseball rather than "playing to impress".  Players that "feel secure" of their job (and compensation) [read veterans] are more likely to do this.  Guys looking to "secure a job"--or "a big pay raise" tend to play to impress.  Attitudes are difficult to control.  

1. Better rotation

2. Better bullpen

3. Better lineup

4. Better manager

5. Better GM

 

Easy.

2015 improvement

1. Sign Lester as a free agent. All good teams need a ace. Team improves because Lester is much better than the #6 pitcher and he helps protect the bullpen.

2. Young players improve. Most players are like Tori Hunter who need time to adjust to the majors.

3. Use platoons. Schafer / RHB in LF and likewise to a lesser extent at CF, SS, and 3B.

4. Sano, Buxton, Meyer, and Berrios will earn their way up sometime in 2015.

Baseball is still a team sport, despite 1 on 1 matchups. I don't know that anyone has ever declared Mauer the straw that stirs the Twins drink. However, he can be a hugely important cog in the lineup. And while improved power would be beneficial, he doesn't really have to do so to be effective and important. 140-150 games played at 1B and a few at DH here and there will give the plate appearances necessary to see rises in R's, RBI, as well as some rise in said power numbers simply from being in more games with more plate appearances. Mauer with a .320-ish BA and .400 OB with 40+ Dbls and, probably, low to mid teens in HR's gives the team/lineup an import piece in the 3 hole; someone who can move and knock in runners, as well as start and continue innings himself. Healthy, at 1B, only 32, he can still be that player.

 

2) Defensive improvement can happen simply from internal progression, (Arcia as a prime example), and by simply having a set OF instead of a bunch of patchwork options. No Willingham in LF, a quality offense/defense LF, as has been discussed multiple times already, and an experienced, natural CF to play consistently, even if he isn't gold glove, will improve continuity. (Hicks?)

 

3) Cal me a naive optimist if you wish, I don't think the 2015 rotation is as bad as some project. I believe Hughes is real. Gibson has stunk here and there, but also been very good, and the good has outweighed the bad. He will be better next year. When did we forget this is his first full season? Take emotional disappointment out of the equation, and there is no reason to be so down on Nolasco for 2015. No questioning the talent of May and Meyer. It's just time. May is doing what Gibson did at the end of last season, getting his feet wet. Very strong chance at least one of the youngsters opens in the rotation. Hopefully Milone rebounds to the pitcher has been until now. I guess Pelfrey might be an ok fill in if needed, but, MEH. It's one thing to say "give soandso a 22M per year deal for 6-7 years and give us an ACE", and another thing to pay that much to a pitcher in his mid to late 30's and fading, possibly quickly.

 

4) Better overall team, better overall record. Another RH hitter with power could definitely help, but I don't feel it's a big ballpark mystery.

 

5) Not joining the endless debate on manager and coaches at this point. BIG Gardy fan, think he can still do the job. I just think it's time for that different voice, that different way of doing things now. I'd like to see at least some of the coaches stay. I think we have some good ones.

Nice article.

 

•Mauer is the obvious question mark, given the disparity between past performance/salary and what he has been this year. Hosken Bombo's points are well taken, but I hope he is young enough to turn it around. I'd hate to see him become the Dany Heatley of baseball and just fall off the planet.

 

•I'd love to see an ace in a Twins uni next season. Who knows, maybe the Earth is round after all.

 

•Speed seems like it would be useful on both sides of the game at Target Field. 

 

•Totally agree on fundamentals - need Tom Kelly to kick some butt in this organization.

The injuries to Buxton & Sano + Rosario's disappearance has pushed the rebuild back to 2016.

2015 should be more of the same unless the unexpected happens.

I agree with the poster that mentioned the bullpen. The Twins bullpen may not look like the problem now but they're below average, aging and trending in the wrong direction. Overhauling the bullpen should be an offseason priority.

I am going to take the contrary opinion here that Joe Mauer can be counted on for some kind of rebound.  If part of his issue this year was recovering from the concussion and adapting to all of the changes in his life then I would expect the further in to this he gets the better he would be doing.  His first 16 games after coming back from his oblique injury he had a .866 OPS and a 11.6% K%.  The following 16 games tell a different story with Mauer logging a .710 OPS with a 25% K%.  Obviously the sample sizes are small but they each total 10% of the season.  My prediction is that we will never see another season where Joe posts an OPS over .800.

Increasing strength is always a good thing. I have no problem with saying Mauer should train harder than he ever has before and if he does while also putting more distance from his concussion I think his numbers will rebound but don't expect or necessarily want him to change how he hits. .320 with a .870 OPS would be ok with me but it should be from the #2 spot.

My one hope would be continued improvement on the part of everybody. 

 

Much has been made lately of Plouffe's arrival as a respectable MLB 3rd baseman, and Dozier's all-around game, and even Escobar's as a reasonable MLB SS - if Arcia, Hicks, Gibson see similar improvement next season, and guys like Vargas and Santana continue their current level, they could at least become a middle of the pack team and set the stage for the uber prospects' arrival.

• I think Mauer's years as a .300 hitter are done.  He should be moved toward the back of the lineup where Suzuki is hitting.

As others have pointed out, more balls will be caught in LF with Willingham's departure, no matter who plays out there. Also, a number of balls have been misplayed due to the extra padding on the outfield walls. 

The newly padded walls should give the Twins a marginal home field advantage because the bounce is now difference from most other outfield walls.  Also, the Twins need better fans.  They should support this young, exciting team no matter what the record is. 

The Twins now have the pitchers to compete in 2015.  I would take Gibson, Nolasco, Milone, Pelfrey, May & Meyer and put them on notice that they have a 2 bad game limit.  2 bad games and they go to the bullpen and the next pitcher is brought in.  This would be true for Hughes too if he starts out badly. 

Molitor was supposed to help baserunning and bunting, and both have been terrible this year.  I see no reason to continue Molitor's employment in 2015. 

1.  The Twins offense is good now despite Mauers production.  But a better Mauer is more fun to watch.

2.  Mauer, C and the OF is where defense is lacking. We have defensive C at high A on the way and the low A C wasn't too bad either.  wont help in 2015 but help is coming.  Buxton, Hicks and Schaefer can get to anything in the OF, Parmelee can hold his own as a 4th OF/DH/1B/PH.  Buxton wont be up till late next year if we are lucky but we wont be as bad next year by default.  The solution is in our system.  Mauer just needs more repetition to be average out there. 

3.  The rotation has pieces with more coming.  We could go out and sign Santana/ Shields or wait it out.

4 and 5. no real comment on the last 2 home record and management are not something you can really pinpoint for improvement.  yes we can get better OF defense and RH power.  and Gardy is fine as a manager.

 

I was with you until the last six words.

Can you pinpoint why you don't like Gardy as manager?  I see lots of blame going his way for a talentless roster. I hope its not 4 losing seasons.  If its in game management then I can appreciate that or if its something else. The Twins are about set to go on an 8 season winning streak or so.  If Gardy manages those seasons he will be back to being a good manager and close to a 2000 win manager too.  Might even bee a Hall of Fame Manager.  The question is if he'll want to manage until e's close to70.

I don't see Mauer as a top five problem per se, but I do wonder how many players making $20M in a season fail to ever carry their team on their back for at least some short stretch during a season. We need our best hitter to be someone who looks to hammer a pitch when runners are on base, not look to coax a damn walk.

 

I'd re-phrase the problem as a situation where we don't have that player- yet. Maybe Arcia can grow into that, as he seems to have a fire in his belly that's been missing from all outward appearances. Or maybe we have to wait for someone like Sano or Buxton.