First-Round Flops or Unfinished Projects?

What do the drafts tell us??   Not much.   Every single one of those kids who was drafted highly (and even most of those drafted low) have a TON of ability.  

What have we all learned over years of watching baseball?   This game is tough, like insanely and unfairly tough.   How many players and especially pitchers have we seen come up short on the world's toughest stage?   When you think about that, the numbers are pretty staggering.   

Not a single player who has ever been drafted by the MLB, has been short on pure physical talent.   Not a single one.   We can fault the player, we can fault the team because they didn't develop said player.   But the biggest thing in my eyes?   Fate.   Some young men are destined to become great between the foul poles... others are not, and only God knows the answers ahead of time.

So in my flawed (and probably not entirely sober right now) understanding of the universe, I think we stress WAY too much about it.   The Twins aren't the only team to ever have multiple players not pan out, it's baseball.   Even if you won't admit it here, at least in that small quite part of yourself that we don't show to other people, rejoice that these young men have realized at least a portion of their hopes and dreams.   For this is a good and righteous thing, and the Lord is pleased at that. 

I made this comment a few weeks ago but Stewart's stuff is better than Slowey or Blackburn's stuff. But they both knew how to pitch with their stuff and both had much better command/control. Stewart's ceiling is better than both of them although I'm not sure he can reach it but I hope he does.

I watched a few innings last night, and a lot of his balls were right out the side the box, so maybe his command isn't that far off?

I watched a few innings last night, and a lot of his balls were right out the side the box, so maybe his command isn't that far off?

Or is it the case that he doesn't have 'lights out' stuff, so he tries to be too fine and catch the corners?  I don't watch the games or scout or anything, but I've wondered if that is why Stewart walks so many.  

Or is it the case that he doesn't have 'lights out' stuff, so he tries to be too fine and catch the corners?  I don't watch the games or scout or anything, but I've wondered if that is why Stewart walks so many.  

Or he's still inexperienced at this level and nerves influence his control. With Molitor only using the opener strategy for Stewart and Gonsalves, that's seems to be at least part of the logic.

I still believe that teams that rely heavily on their minor league system to develop players SHOULD NOT be drafting high school players in the upper level draft picks. There is a weeding out process that takes place in college, in addition to the additional physical and mental maturity. With the limited amount of time to develop talent due to the restrictions of either losing them through the rule 5 draft or losing them as minor league free agents, let alone the necessity of keeping the pipeline of talent to the majors consistently primed, a draft focus on college players just makes sense.

By that formulation, we wouldn't have either Royce Lewis (who appears to be on a star track) or Alex Kirilloff (who is on track to be an elite hitter). Passing on either of those guys would have been a mistake, I think.

Blanket rules like this are how teams get into trouble. If you lock yourself too tightly into a formulation like that you miss guys who might not fit the mold perfectly but could bring elite strengths. That sort of rigidity in thinking is how good players got passed up because they had the wrong body type or other nonsense.

The bigger problem here is the Twins thought they were smarter than everyone else and could turn college relievers into starters, and it completely busted out.

Kohl Stewart was drafted out of high school and his development has taken a while...but he made the major leagues. 39 players were selected in the "1st round" in 2013, and of those 13 have still never played in the majors...including the #1 overall pick, a college pitcher. Despite this being Stewart's first shot at the majors, he actually ranks 14th in bWAR when compared to his 1st round peers. Looking at the rest of the pitchers drafted below him, the only one that jumps out where you go clearly, "yeah, wish we had that guy" is Sean Manaea...who just had season-ended shoulder surgery. So maybe this pick isn't ending up so awful. 

Stewart is trendy sharply upward. He began the year as basically a non-prospect, so there was a long way to go, and he's not there yet . . . but at this point, his odds of contributing in some fashion are pretty decent. 

My inclination would be to start him in long relief next year. From there, he'd hopefully either establish a bullpen role longer-term or improve his command enough to be a starter.

Good article.

For a team that kept promising rebuilds through the draft, they sure do whiff a lot at drafting, don't they?

I don't like calling draft picks "busts" or "flops" because so few draft picks in baseball ever work out anyway. This is just part of the business.

And anyway, the Twins don't seem great at developing players. It's hard to blame the draft picks alone if they are being taught bad habits.

If your strategy is to mostly build thru the draft, and not spend big on FAs or trade minor league stars for veterans.....you MUST be better than other teams are, or you are destined for mediocrity. So being "just like other teams" isn't good enough for this kind of team. It just isn't. 

The Twins seem to be caught between two worlds in that spectrum. However, the new regime seems to have done better than average in the draft. Hoping they continue to put their energies that way.

The draft results are certainly underwhelming but i'm curious as to how that ranks with other organizations.  Are there rankings available based upon objective data as compared to some guy's subjective views? I'd be curious as to what we should expect and how far off of the norm the Twins have been. I suspect it's a long way, but I would be interested to know how far off the norm we are.

Two points in response:

1.   The team has been terrible so we have been drafting at or near the top of the draft, each round, for most of those years.

2.   The team has been terrible so we should have been seeing a lot of drafted players moving up quickly to the big leagues.   Our drafts have hardly made a dent at the big league level.

That is very concerning.   I guess the new FO gets some benefit of the doubt until their draft picks make it to the big leagues, but you have to ask yourself if they are going to continue the conservative approach to bringing up minor league players, how long are we willing to wait while watching the mediocre at best players they put ont he field now???

You mean drafting relievers with the hope to turn them in to starters didn't work out? No way! Nobody could have ever guessed!

I don't know if Stewart is better described as an enigma or Kelly and Hyde. Quality ERA, high ground ball %, extremely low HR totals, reports of low 90's velocity consistently and a slider that had real potential and overall success in his milb career, and even a bit of a surge in SO to begin this season. But the lack of control and lack of SO is both alarming and confusing.
 

Stewart is the second coming of Nick Blackburn. Only with better fastball.

Anyone who says Jay was a mistake from head to toe in hindsight has a short memory.

He was an expected pick:

 

Congratulations are in order to Baseball America, Sports Illustrated, and Jim Callis of MLB.com, all of whom had Tyler Jay going to Minnesota in their most recent mock drafts.

To piggy back on the last comment:  not that "David Rawnsley" has gone on to a renowned career writing about MLB, but he managed to name about 50 players in this S.I. article  about the 2015 draft, and while he showed excitement about Jay, and lots and lots of other players, I don't believe there was nary a mention of Benintendi.

Having said that,   I agree with those that say the Twins can't afford to whiff on these picks if they want to compete.  They did, they do.

I think there's a lot of stuff to complain about the FO but I'm not sure we should say they are conservative in rushing minor league players. Frankly, that's been a false narrative since Steil took over. The Twins have pushed a lot of young guys up the system.

 

I think the development guys are doing a pretty decent job, frankly. It's the ML side that needs to be fixed.

Totally disagree and he facts indicate otherwise.  The Twins are VERY conservative in moving their players through the system.  Look at a guy like Mitch Garver.  He did not get to the major leagues full time until he was 27, TWENTY SEVEN, and he still doesn't even have 500 career plate appearances.  Garver, despite significant minor league success (he was Twins Daily minor league hitter of the year), moved step by step through the system.   This was despite his success and the fact that the Twins catching sucked while they were losing 100 games.   

Addressing something someone raised below,  if we wait until a conservative front office decides a player is ready we are going to wait until forever, all while we lose with guys that have no future.  The fact is, a minor league player is never ready, and Twins minor league players despite the conservative approach reach the majors remarkably ill prepare and often lacking basic skills.  

When you are rebuilding you have to acknowledge that the players you bring up aren't going to be ready.  They are going to make mistakes and you are going to lose ball games.  But, the approach -needs to be a commitment to rebuilding.  I advocate bringing up just about every prospet next season:  Lewis, Kirilloff, Rooker, Gordon amongst others.  Work them in with the existing young talent.  We might lose 100 games like the Twins did in 1982, but the guys who can play will be sorted out and the guys who cannot moved on from.  The sooner we get THOSE QUESTIONS asked, the sooner we can get a real competitive team out there.

And, for those who disagree, how can anyone stand watching this front office bring up Taylor Motter and BObby Wilson, amonsgst other crappy players?  If we are going to lose 87-90 games why lose them with these players without futures?  

Totally disagree and he facts indicate otherwise.  The Twins are VERY conservative in moving their players through the system.  Look at a guy like Mitch Garver.  He did not get to the major leagues full time until he was 27, TWENTY SEVEN, and he still doesn't even have 500 career plate appearances.  Garver, despite significant minor league success (he was Twins Daily minor league hitter of the year), moved step by step through the system.   This was despite his success and the fact that the Twins catching sucked while they were losing 100 games.   

 

Addressing something someone raised below,  if we wait until a conservative front office decides a player is ready we are going to wait until forever, all while we lose with guys that have no future.  The fact is, a minor league player is never ready, and Twins minor league players despite the conservative approach reach the majors remarkably ill prepare and often lacking basic skills.  

 

When you are rebuilding you have to acknowledge that the players you bring up aren't going to be ready.  They are going to make mistakes and you are going to lose ball games.  But, the approach -needs to be a commitment to rebuilding.  I advocate bringing up just about every prospet next season:  Lewis, Kirilloff, Rooker, Gordon amongst others.  Work them in with the existing young talent.  We might lose 100 games like the Twins did in 1982, but the guys who can play will be sorted out and the guys who cannot moved on from.  The sooner we get THOSE QUESTIONS asked, the sooner we can get a real competitive team out there.

 

And, for those who disagree, how can anyone stand watching this front office bring up Taylor Motter and BObby Wilson, amonsgst other crappy players?  If we are going to lose 87-90 games why lose them with these players without futures?  

One player on the current roster that you can say was not pushed.  The rest were not held back.  None were pushed as fast as Trout, Machado  or Harper, but you wouldn't call  any of the players their level of OF/IF. 

Motter had a better record in AAA than Gordon had. I am not sure there was another IF in the system that one would have called up that has prospect status

Speaking of Gordon, although the thread seems to be bash the drafting of Stewart or Jay the real bashing should be the pick of Gordon. Nola, Turner, Freeland, Chapman and maybe even Conforto would have been way better picks.  That is a lot of players to have guessed wrong on.  Kohl Stewart at this point has Tim Anderson and some guy named Judge looking like great players. A lot of teams passed on those two. Benintendi makes the Jay pick look bad. https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-profile-arkansas-outfielder-andrew-benintendi/c-128283976 would show that the Twins were more unlucky than unwise. 

I'm not overly concerned about Garver. Look at the promotions of the guys in the minors since Steil took over. They are pushed. Just a few of the ages of guys when the made the majors since 2012.

 

21 - Buxton

22 - Sano, Polanco, Berrios, 

23 - Rosario, Kepler, Hicks, Littel, Gonsalves, Stewart, Romero

 

Sure, they haven't pushed everyone as hard - Gordon for example - and injuries affected others (Jay and Burdi) but generally, the development team has pushed the guys. Kiriloff misses a year and immediately starts a level above where he left off and gets a mid-season promotion. Most of our best prospects get mid-season promotions and/or start at higher levels than others. Lewis, for example, is at higher level already than Greene and Gore and the same level as college pick McCay.

 

Sano has already been an all-star and Buxton has already put down a 5 WAR season with MVP votes. Berrios and Rosario have played at or near all-star levels. I think the development team is doing fine. There is something wrong at the ML level that needs to get fixed to address why Kepler has plateaued and Sano regressed etc. 

First, the ages you refer are when they got late season call ups or quick looks.   So it is a bit misleading.

Second, compare how our prospects were moved through versus players on the Yankees or Red Sox:  Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Luis Severino, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Rafeal Devers, Xander Bogaerts, 

Even if you want to claim that "see the Twins moved their players up at the same pace", which I disagree with, there is a singular difference. The Red Sox and Yankees are competitive teams.  The Red Sox are going to win 107 or so games with a lineup that is essentially younger than the Twins.   We are a rebuilding team, yet we promote our prospects at the same level of contenders.  That is just plain stupid and we wonder why this organization is in such a mess.

One player on the current roster that you can say was not pushed.  The rest were not held back.  None were pushed as fast as Trout, Machado  or Harper, but you wouldn't call  any of the players their level of OF/IF. 

Motter had a better record in AAA than Gordon had. I am not sure there was another IF in the system that one would have called up that has prospect status

Taylor Motter hit .197 with a .646 OPS for Seattle's AAA team when the Twins HAD TO get him on our AAA team to hit .182 with a .636 OPS, which OBVIOUSLY was enough to deserve a call up to the major league team were "unexpectedly" he hit .053 with a .195 OPS.  His career MLB batting average is .191 with a career OPS of .575.  

At 28 years old, in the eyes of the Twins Front Office he was a great promotion and apparently was a solid prospect.  

Gordon is still a legitimate prospect, and if you want to compare Gordon has a much better performance in AA than Motter, and Motter's AAA is impacted by one and a partial seasons were he hit way above his expectations.  Sometimes when you are looking at things, you need to recognize flukes.  Motter's 2018 performance in AAA and with his stints on the big leagues are the reality.

Taylor Motter hit .197 with a .646 OPS for Seattle's AAA team when the Twins HAD TO get him on our AAA team to hit .182 with a .636 OPS, which OBVIOUSLY was enough to deserve a call up to the major league team were "unexpectedly" he hit .053 with a .195 OPS.  His career MLB batting average is .191 with a career OPS of .575.  

 

At 28 years old, in the eyes of the Twins Front Office he was a great promotion and apparently was a solid prospect.  

 

Gordon is still a legitimate prospect, and if you want to compare Gordon has a much better performance in AA than Motter, and Motter's AAA is impacted by one and a partial seasons were he hit way above his expectations.  Sometimes when you are looking at things, you need to recognize flukes.  Motter's 2018 performance in AAA and with his stints on the big leagues are the reality.

Motter was a warm body when they had no other warm body. Featherstone fizzled , Pettit can hit the rare single. Name one other warm body in AA that they had as a middle infielder.   I really doubt if anyone in any organization thought Motter was more than a AAA emergency piece. 

Gordon is still a prospect. No argument there.  It is more than reasonable the FO signed a Motter, Pettit, or Featherstone  not as a replacement for Gordon but as a bridge until he was ready. 

Please name the source where anyone  had "At 28 years old, in the eyes of the Twins Front Office he was a great promotion and apparently was a solid prospect." as a take.