Falvey, Levine Well-Suited To Solve Roster Riddles

15 teams in the AL

11th in wRC+ (bottom third)

11th in OBP (bottom third)

13th in K% (bottom third)

8th in AL in HR (average)

8th in AL in OPS (average)

9th in AL in slg% (below average)

9th in runs scored (below average)

'Among the challenges that puzzled the 2016 Twins was putting an optimal defensive lineup on the field.'

They intentionally chose to put a huge man in the OF who had never played OF as a pro before.  I think the real challenging puzzle was the FO trying to figure out a way of trying to convince fans they cared at all about defense. The puzzle was not solved.  So an average offense at best (and only if looked at in certain ways) that comes with those players playing a far below acceptable defense.

It should be real interesting for our Twins this winter. I'm super excited for our new regime to get to work. Go Twins!!! \m/

15 teams in the AL

 

 

'Among the challenges that puzzled the 2016 Twins was putting an optimal defensive lineup on the field.'

 

They intentionally chose to put a huge man in the OF who had never played OF as a pro before.  I think the real challenging puzzle was the FO trying to figure out a way of trying to convince fans they cared at all about defense. The puzzle was not solved.  So an average offense at best (and only if looked at in certain ways) that comes with those players playing a far below acceptable defense

Maddon puts people in new positions on a regular basis. The article suggests Cleveland was smart to move Santana not once but twice.  However, the Twins are incompetent fools when they use out fo the box thinking.

Which player is more athletic, Sano or Schwarber?   I would say Sano so difference does it make if Sano is bigger.  Let's also remember the Twins and Sano had agreed that Sano would shed some weight.  Some of you seem to forget that Sano's size is something that could have been relatively easily adjusted to better fix the position.  There are a bunch of NFL players who would be much more athletic than alot of MLB corner outfielders so I just dont get how Sano's size should have disqualified him as a candidate to play a corner OF position.  What's even more weird is the number of people who think Mauer or Plouffe who are both much slower than Sano should play OF.  Somehow really slow is ok if you are not really big.

I can't say I know exactly how a new regime will accomplish it, or how long it will take, but if Sano and Polanco are standing next to each other on the left side of the IF, and Centeno is still on the roster, then the defense is still going to be sub par. If one looks at the roster, and wants to try and keep the core, that is an inescable fact. The only glove first player on that roster is Buxton. While I really hate to see almost any of these players moved, the sad fact is some trades have to be made to change the mix of the roster.

My guess is that gaining more defensive competence will take a couple years.  I'm pretty sure the new PoBO and GM are going to need some ramp-up time.  Who stays, who goes. 

An outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler looks pretty darn good to me, defensively.  Offense:  still a work in progress.

The infield.  Ufda.  Safe to say, not a Gold Glover in the group?   I'm assuming Dozier is staying.  So is Mauer.  Sano losing weight = being in better shape and (hopefully) more agility. What I saw of Polanco:  he was better at 2nd and 3rd than SS.  Maybe more reps?  IDK.

The biggest key to the whole puzzle is still probably Dozier. If he's still with the Twins, you have to make room for Polanco somewhere. If it's 3B, then Sano has to move to 1B/DH. Could you move Dozier to 3B or 1B? I'm not sure either would be awful. If Dozier is traded for pitching help, obviously you slot Polanco in at 2B. So BD is a huge offseason chip in the defensive lineup of the next Twins team.

And unless the new FO feels Polanco deserves a chance at SS, your next call is to give Escobar the job coming off a down and injured season and find someone to be the utility guy. I like Escobar a lot, but do you and the Twins feel comfortable with this scenario? Or is it better to bring in a proven SS, even for the short term, and use Escobar as a valuable and versatile utility guy who probably plays quite a bit?

I like the OF as is, with someone to be a quality 4th guy.

The biggest key to the whole puzzle is still probably Dozier. If he's still with the Twins, you have to make room for Polanco somewhere. If it's 3B, then Sano has to move to 1B/DH. Could you move Dozier to 3B or 1B? I'm not sure either would be awful. If Dozier is traded for pitching help, obviously you slot Polanco in at 2B. So BD is a huge offseason chip in the defensive lineup of the next Twins team.

And unless the new FO feels Polanco deserves a chance at SS, your next call is to give Escobar the job coming off a down and injured season and find someone to be the utility guy. I like Escobar a lot, but do you and the Twins feel comfortable with this scenario? Or is it better to bring in a proven SS, even for the short term, and use Escobar as a valuable and versatile utility guy who probably plays quite a bit?

I like the OF as is, with someone to be a quality 4th guy.

Maddon puts people in new positions on a regular basis. The article suggests Cleveland was smart to move Santana not once but twice.  However, the Twins are incompetent fools when they use out fo the box thinking.

 

Which player is more athletic, Sano or Schwarber?   I would say Sano so difference does it make if Sano is bigger.  Let's also remember the Twins and Sano had agreed that Sano would shed some weight.  Some of you seem to forget that Sano's size is something that could have been relatively easily adjusted to better fix the position.  There are a bunch of NFL players who would be much more athletic than alot of MLB corner outfielders so I just dont get how Sano's size should have disqualified him as a candidate to play a corner OF position.  What's even more weird is the number of people who think Mauer or Plouffe who are both much slower than Sano should play OF.  Somehow really slow is ok if you are not really big.

Maddon manages a team with an embarrassment of riches in regards to position players. He has to be creative to get everyone some time.  We don't have such issues. Additionally, Maddon never said, 'Hey, let's put a 6 foot 4, 270 pound IF who has ZERO experience in the OF and make him our FULL TIME RF.'

The decision was a boneheaded move that was easily predicted to fail miserably, and it did.  I can't believe people still want to justify it as a smart or innovative move.  It was neither.

We are sitting here remembering that Joe Mauer is a lock at first base where so many current names could play (be it Sano, Park or Vargas).

We talk of Dozier be moved as solving our problems. But we are still a ways from having Gordon at shortstop.

Dozier talk (should he be moved, why isn't he being moved) is similar to the talk of Trevor Plouffe who, for all intent and purpose, is still in the Twins mix.

And can any of them play the outfield, and where does that leave our three prospects of Rosario/Kepler/Buxton, not to mention names in the wings like Palka, Walker and Granite.

And then you do start to look at the worth of ANY of the above names. We feel Dozier has worth, yet any team looking at him has to have a second base need (where else can he play) and do they think he is a viable player to resign in 2019 and beyond.

I don't think we can move Park or Vargas or even Plouffe. Escobar is fumes. Teams would rather gamble on trading for Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco at this point. Rosario is on the bubble. Santana is a placeholder. Anyone really feels Grossman is needed with Palka/Walker/Granite in the wings? 

The team is a mess in pieces to send elsewhere. As a general manager, I would just wait to see who the Twins jettison, and worry about trading pieces with other teams, who may fulfill my needs equally if not better than the Twins, or just waiting for those waiver wire moments that may see more Twins than any of us imagine.

Maddon puts people in new positions on a regular basis. The article suggests Cleveland was smart to move Santana not once but twice.  However, the Twins are incompetent fools when they use out fo the box thinking.

 

Which player is more athletic, Sano or Schwarber?   I would say Sano so difference does it make if Sano is bigger.  Let's also remember the Twins and Sano had agreed that Sano would shed some weight.  Some of you seem to forget that Sano's size is something that could have been relatively easily adjusted to better fix the position.  There are a bunch of NFL players who would be much more athletic than alot of MLB corner outfielders so I just dont get how Sano's size should have disqualified him as a candidate to play a corner OF position.  What's even more weird is the number of people who think Mauer or Plouffe who are both much slower than Sano should play OF.  Somehow really slow is ok if you are not really big.

Bottom line is that no sane person thought Sano in the OF was a good idea.  Also if Molitor was complicit in that decision and not just following orders he should have been fired along with Ryan.  As far as Schwarber goes he hasn't really played enough game in the OF to make any definitive decision on whether he can or should play out there either.  He probably needs to play on an AL team.

I find it interesting that we are looking to a new FO to come in and institute change, to shake up the system, but then we think that Mauer is locked in at first - how about a bench spot?  We still can't figure out Plouffe and Dozier or Polanco and Sano.  Rosario seems to be locked in to the OF, but why?  Lets throw out the ideas and story lines we had in 2016.  What if the new front office really does come in and make things different?  Might be nice.

I wonder, considering what the team needs, and Dozier being such a valuable, potentially, trade chip, would we, or should we, be upset or surprised if the new FO that will be running things decides not to trade him?

Bottom line is that no sane person thought Sano in the OF was a good idea.  Also if Molitor was complicit in that decision and not just following orders he should have been fired along with Ryan.  As far as Schwarber goes he hasn't really played enough game in the OF to make any definitive decision on whether he can or should play out there either.  He probably needs to play on an AL team.

So, are you saying that Sano was no athletic enough to play the position.  Nobody though tit was insane to suggest Plouffe or Mauer in the outfield.  Sano at 270 is far more athletic than Plouffe and quite a bit faster than Mauer.  He certainly is faster and more athletic than alot of guys that played the position because of their bat.  Point is that size is not nearly as relevant a question as does he have the athleticism to play OF. 

He failed because he could not make the adaption.  Size was not the primary problem.  Also, to focus on the fact that he was 270lbs has to be the worst assessment of the core problem I have ever seen on this site.  How much problem solving skill does it take to recognize he is 30 lbs over weight.  I think a better assessment of the problem was that he should lose 30 lbs, not that he cant play the position because he weighs 270. 

#1 Riddle they must solve:
 

"Why is Target Field so hot?"

All the fans left.  

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Sano's move to right was because Plouffe was at 3rd and Torii Hunter was gone?  And then Plouffe got hurt and Sano moved back to 3rd. 

His fielding % at 3rd was .896, RF .962.  I'm betting there's a better stat to use than that,  just don't know what it is. 

I do know that Sano in RF took some adventurous routes to balls hit over his head that did not count as errors.

Sano also does some similar things at 3rd:  a few prat falls and a bonk on the head.

Anyway, Plouffe by all accounts is gone and that Kepler kid is a lock for RF.  Happy Days!

#1 Riddle they must solve:
 

"Why is Target Field so hot?"

 

All the fans left.  

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-minnesota-twins/

 

Here's a 2014 Fangraphs scouting report saying RF or first is probably where Sano will end up.  Unless we are also considering Fangraphs prospect evaluations horrible, the Twins decision to move him to the outfield can't be considered a crazy.  Sano's lack of prep and gaining weight is more responsible for the failure than the actual move.  Hopefully he works harder at being a competent third baseman this offseason.

 

Overall it's a very interesting scouting report on Sano.  Questions if his walk rate will continue (15% in 2015, down to 10% in 2016 and 7.5% for second half of 2016) and his weight issues.

Actually what it says is some scouts feel he will move to RF or 1B.  Fangraphs scouts didn't say it, nor did they say they agree with the scouts that did or say it's a good idea.  They also say one reason is his defensive problems at 3B (lack of quick first step and arm accuracy) would cause the move, not that his skills said he should play there.

And last I look, when spring training happened, and he was 270 or more pounds, they continued with the plan instead of saying, 'um, he didn't lose 20-30 pounds, he gained weight (or stayed even), so it's probably not a good idea to proceed.'  Instead, they carried on.  See, here's a guy who has never played the OF, ever, and now you want a guy who has never had to judge routes to fly balls at any professional level to maneuver that weight out there, changing routes having to stop all that weight and re-direct and having to do it at the major league level.

It was a horrible plan and not one person is saying it was just because of his weight that it was a bad idea.  

Did you check on Schwarber's performance in the NLCS last season?

I am not sure what point you are trying to make here.  My point is that both players were unproven in the OF.  Their bats warranted a shot.  If Sano is more athletic than Schwaber, especially if Sano lost 30 lbs, why should Sano to the OF be dismissed because he is bigger?   I think Jimmer hit the nail on the head.  Their execution sucked but his size was not the problem. 
 

No one ever says it, but at some point, we have to consider trading Sano.

Why?

He took a step back last year, and his natural position is going to be 1B, where Twins have a monster logjam.

Head case?  Fielding liability?  Strike-out percentage?  Clubhouse cancer?

Everybody talks about his high ceiling, but what if there is no helium in the Sano balloon? 

Kid had a movie made about him at 16.  That could be peaking early, or really, peaking prematurely.  Will make last out of game at 3B, miss cutoff men, and generally look confused.