Extension Candidate: Oswaldo Arcia

He needs to hit the seams off the ball and play average defense. Or hit the seams off the ball (way more than Arcia) and the twins trade Arcia and commit to him at DH

It should be noted that he would need to dramatically improve against lefties to qualify as hitting the seams off the ball. The last thing you want to do is extend a platoon player for five years for no reason.

Okay. I meant he needs to outperform Vargas and the twins trade Vargas.

I am a little dumbfounded. He is not a free agent for five more seasons and has legitimate question marks about his game and role here. 

He has been pretty bad defensively and may not be sustainable there.  And his career line against lefties is .224/.266/.336/.597.

Before we pay him five years in advance, lets allow him to show that he has a position and is not platoon player.

Is there a good article anywhere on TD that explains how the MLB service clock works? I've never understood it. I read about players having "options" and being a "super-2" player but I have no idea what any of that means. Thanks...

Here is a 4th grade explanation.  By 4th grade I mean I know just enough to think I have it down.  I will be corrected, likely on all points within ten minutes.

Here goes.  Your service time starts when you are called up and is a big countdown, first to arbitration (when an arbiter determines your pay and then when you become a free agent). The general rule of thumb is players are under rookie deals their first three years and usually make about $500K per year.  Then they are in arbitration for three years.  Numbers in arbitration range from 1-2.5M in year one, on up to potentially $10M depending on prodution.  Ryan Howard was putting up MVP numbers for example and made a boatload. 

Super two means players can skip their third year of rookie pay and jump to arbitration if they are in the 22nd percentile or better in terms of service time (for their peers).

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/business/super-two/

I have less knowledge of the options.  On a very basic level, a player can only be called up to the majors and then sent back down so many times before he has to pass through waivers and can be claimed by other teams.  Some magical calculation exists regarding service time, number of times being sent down, whether they ar on the 40 or 25 man roster, and age.

He may be the next David Ortiz.

 

But the Twins will play it safe.

 

WHo knows, he could be on the bus to Rochester for most/part of this season. If that happens, the Twins get that extra time.

 

If he does produce, he came become trade bait.

 

He could be the next David Ortiz.

But what if Vargas is the next Ortiz and Arcia still looks lost in the outfield?  And again, if Arcia does not take a significant step forward against lefties he will find himself on the bench in key games.  A lot of things need to be sorted out over the next few years.

It may already be too late to extract much excess value from an Arcia extension.  As Jeremy says, he is likely less than a year away from his first arbitration award as a Super Two.  Denard Span was two years away from his arb award when he signed his deal with the Twins.

 

If the Twins could option Arcia this season for 21 days, they could delay his first arbitration award a year and eliminate his "Super Two" status.  But of course, if there is a plausible performance based reason for optioning Arcia this year, he's probably not a good extension candidate anyway...

I think big picture, we could go down the line and lock up every guy we think will be a part of the 2017 Twins.  But we first need clarity on if the combination of all these guys is a playoff team or not. Because if you have all positions locked up, you are often going to be stuck with that roster.  we will never have full clarity, but projecting out five years based on a very small sample is risky. Especially when guys have huge queston marks.

In the 2nd half of 2014 Arcia batted .239/.290/.517. If he keeps that up through the first half of 2015, I think that should give the Twins reasonable confidence about Arcia's bat while leaving enough risk to provide the leverage needed to lock him into a low AAV plus team option(s) on Arcia's age 29 (and 30) seasons. I'd love to see the Twins lock him up if that's how the first half plays out.

On a related note, Fangraphs looked at the notion of scarce righthanded power.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/debunking-the-myth-of-right-handed-power-scarcity/

TL;DR its a myth. In fact, LH power is scarcer. I think that's true for the Twins as well. Who is there besides Vargas that might offer anywhere near as much LH pop as Arcia promises?

In the 2nd half of 2014 Arcia batted .239/.290/.517. If he keeps that up through the first half of 2015, I think that should give the Twins reasonable confidence about Arcia's bat while leaving enough risk to provide the leverage needed to lock him into a low AAV plus team option(s) on Arcia's age 29 (and 30) seasons. I'd love to see the Twins lock him up if that's how the first half plays out.

 

On a related note, Fangraphs looked at the notion of scarce righthanded power.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/debunking-the-myth-of-right-handed-power-scarcity/

 

TL;DR its a myth. In fact, LH power is scarcer. I think that's true for the Twins as well. Who is there besides Vargas that might offer anywhere near as much LH pop as Arcia promises?

Things that need clarity:

Can Arcia play adequete defense?

Can Arcia improve upon his sub .600 OPS against lefties?

Can Arcia's offense outweigh someone like Rosario/Hicks/maybe Sano/Plouffe, in LF, given they will likely all play better defense?

The Twins need to hit the pause button.  So many things need to work themselves out.

I think they would only have that leverage at that point if it was clear that Arcia would miss Super Two status.  Otherwise, Arcia would only be 3 months worth of games from a guaranteed ~$2.5+ mil payday.  It doesn't seem like players sign up for multiple option years at that point in their careers.

 

Although Arcia's career thus far is a somewhat refreshing reminder that the Twins generally don't play service time games.  They optioned him after his rehab stint in May 2014, but only for 10 days or so, not enough to keep him from getting a full year's service time credit for 2014.  If they had kept him down another 10 days, or ended his "rehab" and optioned him 10 days earlier, he probably would not project to make Super Two status.

Well, they could include a 2.5m salary in year one, or a signing bonus, or some other incentive. Super 2 status might change the shape of an extension but I doubt that makes or breaks a deal or alters the size/scope of it more than a little.

As with any extension, it depends on the player and how he values financial security versus the upside of going year to year. If Arcia's agent is like Dozier's, he'll want to secure a deal while leaving open the possiblility of a big pay day entering free agency around age 30-31. Best of both worlds really.