Evaluating the Prospects in the Arraez/López Trade

Salas is a stud prospect. I'm shocked he was the throw in.

Salas comes from a long line of baseball players. MLB (grandfather) Jose Gregorio, (father) Jose Antonio (uncle) Jose Gregorio (brother) Ethan, who was the highest international signing at catcher. So he has a lot of baseball sense.

My preference is not to try to beef these guys up but let them keep their speed & play out at SS & CF.  They can always beef up later if they can't maintain their edge

The Twins would’ve been nuts to say no to this deal, IMO.

They need to start replenishing the farm system.  They added a top 100 prospect.

They needed a starting pitcher.  They added a cheap, rock solid middle of the rotation guy under team control, with some All Star caliber upside.  Could very possibly be our best starter at the end of 2023.  Nobody here wants to spend on high-end starting pitchers, this is about as good as it gets in terms of obtaining a solid MLB-ready starter.

We have a glut of guys that can play 1st base.  Arraez’s value will never be higher, and it’s already extremely limited with zero defense and power.  His ability to stay healthy is questionable long-term.

This allows them to keep the rotation fresh.  Potentially run a 6 man rotation at times if needed, move talented guys to roles in the bullpen (guys like Winder and Ober if they can’t handle big workloads).  Paddack and Maeda can be worked back in slowly.  There’s also some pretty darn good depth for inevitable injuries.

The more I think about it, the more I like it.  I give the FO tons of credit for this.  Ballsy move, but checks so many boxes.  Might be my favorite move they’ve ever made.
 

Going to miss Arraez for sure, but definitely think they got a good return with Lopez + these two.

A little hard for me to get a great read on Salas at first.  His overall batting lines haven't always been that great, but he's always been facing much older competition.  The K rate is solid though and he's already shown some power, with more likely to come.  Could take a bit longer as a switch hitter to really reach his potential.  He will probably grow on me as I get more familiar; I trust the evaluators on his potential for now.

Chourio looks like more than a throw in to me.  You can't scout the stat lines too much in the DSL but he had an excellent K rate, which I do think is meaningful, and a good walk rate too.  He was also among the youngest in last year's international class.

Salas reminds me of Jorge Polanco

I understand why they moved Arraez, I really liked him but I understand it.

Not a huge Pablo López fan and would have liked Dax Fulton instead as a prospect.  Salas is an intriguing prospect as well as the Chourio kid has some tools. 

Salas was 33 out of 34 in SB last year.

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Salas reminds me of Jorge Polanco

More like Austin Martin with a bit more power.

Seriously, it’s just like getting Martin who, when the Twins got him, was a fringy top 100 player who plays SS but may not even project as an infielder.

I refuse to buy into the “Twins fleeced the Marlins” narrative that seems to be quite popular on TD tonight.  Other than maybe the Berrios trade, this FO hasn’t shown it can deliver on trades, let alone fleece anyone.  When people start talking about how smart we are and how dumb or backed against the wall the Marlins were, that’s when the antenna go up.  

I would have rather seen pitching prospects.  But Salas is nice enough. 

6 hours ago, Beast said:

 

The more I think about it, the more I like it.  I give the FO tons of credit for this.  Ballsy move, but checks so many boxes.  Might be my favorite move they’ve ever made.
 

I like this trade as well but,,,, AJ for Nathan and Liriano? Don't think that one will ever get topped again, unless there is blackmail involved.

If you meant this FO only, then maybe, it's not a long list!

If Madea comes in runner up for CYA again, I'll concede that one.

I hate to love this trade. 

I understand fans who are upset with the trade.  Arraez will continue to be a good hitter and may end up with a lifetime 300 batting average.  But, he had no regular position in the field and the Twins have several major league ready prospects who have the potential to hit for more power and drive in more runs than he would.  All in all it was hard to see what his place on the roster would have been going forward.  Most importantly the Twins needed, and still need, front of the rotation starters if they want to get better.  The farm system has still not filled this need and shows no signs of doing so in the near future.  The only way to get that pitching is via free agency or a trade.  The Twins aren’t going to spend big to get a top of the line starter in free agency so trades are their only option.  To get good quality starting pitching they had to be willing to give value to get value.  It may take several years to see how the trade worked out, so I hope is a win win situation for both teams.

Is it a little odd that the Marlins, a team with offense in short supply and tradng Lopez specifically to add it, would include a fringy top 100 IF prospect who per Fangraphs is only a year away? Maybe he's more like 2-3 years out.

This was a GREAT trade.  Yes, probably no trade will ever compare to AJ for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and don't forget BOOF Bonser.  According to Baseball Trade Values which is a decent tool to measure "value" Arraez for Lopez straight up would have greatly favored the Twins as Lopez is valued at 38.8 and Arraez at 26.6.  To have gotten Salas (valued at 20.5) is shocking.  To have further gotten Chourio (.50) as well is almost overkill.  Chourio is only valued at .50 but that has more to do with his youth and uncertain projectability at this point.  He's simply a lottery ticket, but as long as you're holding a lottery ticket you have a chance to win.

I still do not understand the opinions on TD that Lopez is a mediocre pitcher.  He's not Juan Marichal, I'll grant you that, but he was Miami's #2 starter last year.  He threw 180 innings and struck out 174.  His 3.75 ERA wasn't Verlander-esque but would have been really solid for the Twins.  Just having a guy capable of throwing 170-180 innings is a huge benefit to the Twins and every man in the bullpen.

Arraez was a fan favorite (and a fav of mine as well).  But we sold him at max value and crushed on the return.  As soon as I heard the Cardinals were looking to get in on the Lopez sweepstakes I was concerned.  That FO doesn't mess around and I think ours knew it.  At that point a deal was completed quickly.  Maybe we were holding out for Sixto Sanchez to be a throw in, who knows.  And we have LOTS of people who can fill the Arraez void.  Lewis, Lee, Gordon, Julien, Martin not to mention Polanco who IS our starting 2B-man.  Julien, "The God of Walks" can play 2B and 1B and with his on base skills could be up sooner rather than later if he does well at St. Paul.  Yes, we all hope Kirilloff will be ready to go and rake right out of spring training, but Miranda at 1B and farmer at 3B to begin with is a decent "Plan B."  I hope this trade works out well for BOTH teams, but I REALLY like what the Twins F.O. pulled off here.  I wonder if this means we're done or whether Kepler or Larnach is still in play.  We made this trade without addressing our logjam of LH hitting outfielders.  There could be more at play.  For example:  A trade of Kepler straight up for Frankie Montas would be quite interesting.  Montas will miss the first month of the season but having Lopez allows the Twins time to get Montas ready and for Maeda to open the season in long relief while Ober holds down the #5 spot in the rotation.  Having both Lopez and Montas at the top of our rotation while opening playing time for Larnach is a WIN-WIN in my book.  You can NEVER have too much pitching.  Stockpile those arms and at the trade deadline or the end of 2023 see who you want to retain and who you deal or let walk.    

Nothing I can like about this trade considering Arraez should have been untouchable, at least in my opinion.

Don't much care about the prospects and Lopez isn't that ACE or near ACE the Twins should have been looking for if dealing their batting champ.  Heck, their pitching staff was both capable and deep.  Now there is one more guy keeping Varland and SWR from getting innings this year.

Forget the throw ins and put together a deal for Alcantara.  That I could have lived with.  Expect Alcantara was untouchable.  Why wasn't Luis?

The only way this deal can recover in my mind is if the 17 year old kid is the second coming of Willie Mays.  

2 hours ago, joemama said:

Is it a little odd that the Marlins, a team with offense in short supply and tradng Lopez specifically to add it, would include a fringy top 100 IF prospect who per Fangraphs is only a year away? Maybe he's more like 2-3 years out.

1 year sounds very aggressive. Maybe the Marlins would have continued pushing him aggressively, but he only had the second half at A+ and struggled a bit to adjust.

I think he still has two seasons before needing to go on the 40 man, so another half a year in A+, about a year in AA, and half a year in AAA before maybe being ready for an opening day spot in 2025 seems like a typical timeline. Late 2024 wouldn't be shocking, but also mid 2025 wouldn't be too slow IMO.

Basically, still a lot of time to see how he develops I think.

13 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

More like Austin Martin with a bit more power.

Seriously, it’s just like getting Martin who, when the Twins got him, was a fringy top 100 player who plays SS but may not even project as an infielder.

I refuse to buy into the “Twins fleeced the Marlins” narrative that seems to be quite popular on TD tonight.  Other than maybe the Berrios trade, this FO hasn’t shown it can deliver on trades, let alone fleece anyone.  When people start talking about how smart we are and how dumb or backed against the wall the Marlins were, that’s when the antenna go up.  

I think he's in a similar tier that Martin was at that time but I think he's significantly different. Definitely more ceiling, probably a bit lower floor.

Martin was already 22 and might be generously listed at 6 feet. So Salas has already shown more power at 19 than Martin ever had, and has a better frame to add more. It sounds like Salas is around a coin flip to stay at short, which is better than could have been realistically said for Martin. He's also a switch hitter.

Honestly the wisdom of the trade hinges more on how well Kirilloff, Lewis, Lee, Julien, and Martin do over the next few years.  If Lopez stays healthy and the FO is right about having the infield covered for the next 3 years, then the deal worked in the short term. Salas and Chourio make the deal smart in the long term as good additions to the next wave of prospects.

The Twins are counting on Alex Kirilloff to step forward this year, and I think he will.

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins are counting on Alex Kirilloff to step forward this year, and I think he will.

They're counting on one of Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, Julien, Martin or Wallner to step forward and it's pretty good odds one of them will.

On 1/20/2023 at 10:53 PM, Nashvilletwin said:

More like Austin Martin with a bit more power.

Seriously, it’s just like getting Martin who, when the Twins got him, was a fringy top 100 player who plays SS but may not even project as an infielder.

I refuse to buy into the “Twins fleeced the Marlins” narrative that seems to be quite popular on TD tonight.  Other than maybe the Berrios trade, this FO hasn’t shown it can deliver on trades, let alone fleece anyone.  When people start talking about how smart we are and how dumb or backed against the wall the Marlins were, that’s when the antenna go up.  

Ryan for Cruz was a fantastic trade.  Getting out of the Donaldson contract while getting Urshela and Sanchez was darn good.  Duran for Escobar is looking good as well.  The Sonny Gray trade could come back to bite us but it will be 4 or 5 years before we can really assess that one.

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

They are getting two good years from Gray. What they traded isn't relevant unless we think both teams can't win a trade, imo.

I understand where you are coming from and two teams can both win in a trade.  The scenario could play out many ways.  Petty could end up being a 3/4 and it's no big deal.  If Chase Petty turns out to be an ace, I would not view it as a good outcome unless the twins made a deep push in the playoffs this year and Gray was instrumental.  Granted, the odds of Petty becoming an ace are long but two years of a good pitcher in years where we did not contend is not a good swap if we could have had a better pitcher for 6+ years.  It would be just our luck!

For the front office, this is a no brainer trade.  Now it's up to the players to make it work.  Kirilloff needs to be the stud at 1st he is supposed to be.  The rotation has some soilidness to them, now stay healthy.  The outfield has plenty of pieces, along with a couple infielders, to cover DH at high level while taking a 1/2 rest day once in a while.  Imagine if some of our players actually start to reach their low end potential?  Lewis, Kirillof, Miranda, Larnach and all pitchers, we're looking at you.

With that said, if this club isn't playing well on May 1st, the front office needs to change the manager.  The message in the organization needs to be clear.  Everyone's job is on the line.  I doubt front office will be tolerated much longer if this isn't a playoff team.