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  • Embracing Substance Over Style


    John  Bonnes

    I’ve been married to The Voice of Reason™ for nearly 25 years, and I can say with confidence that I’ve never called her “solid.” Because she’s from Philly. And I like my teeth. Wisely, I choose a lot prettier adjectives, but I have to tell you, it’s the substance beneath that veneer that has sustained 21 years of marriage.

    (And here’s the point in the story where I compare my betrothed to Eduardo Escobar. Hmm. That’s going to cost me a bicuspid. Can we keep the rest of this story between ourselves? We all agree? Ok, let’s go on.)

    Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

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    Watching Eduardo Escobar play shortstop on Friday afternoon, it’s understandable why he does not excite a lot of people. He isn’t smooth. He is not stylish. You catch yourself holding your breath watching him …

    (I’m having coming up with a verb here. He doesn’t race. Stumble is too harsh. Let’s go with hustle, as it conveys both the cynical and positive connotations.)

    You catch yourself holding your breath watching him hustle towards the hole, field the ball, pivot and make the throw to first base. He looks like he is laboring. He does not inspire confidence.

    But he made the plays. Asked about Escobar’s defense after Friday’s game, manager Paul Molitor portrayed it as “solid.” “He made all the plays,” reflected Molitor. “That’s typical of what we expect out of him because he’s going to do that.”

    It’s expected because he made damn near all the plays last year, too. You might be surprised to hear that Eduardo Escobar’s shortstop UZR last year was +2.1 which means he saved approximately two runs more than the average shortstop over the 771 innings he played.

    Don’t trust the defensive metrics? Let’s do some old school scouting instead. Inside Edge counted 252 ground balls to Escobar last year that were “routine” meaning they are turned into outs 90-100% of the time. Escobar turned all but 6 into outs, or 97.6%. As you might expect, he was not as solid for the plays which are less routine, making a handful fewer outs than one might expect in those cases. Again, not flashy, but solid.

    His bat, on the other hand, has been eye-catching, especially this spring. He knocked in his 11th RBI on Saturday to lend further credence to the .721 OPS he put up last year over 465 plate appearances. You would think posting an OPS equivalent to Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins, while playing solid defense would cement a 26-year-old’s spot in the lineup.

    You would be wrong, because Escobar is being crowded out of an everyday spot in the lineup so Danny Santana, who filled in as a center fielder last year, can have his turn at shortstop. What isn’t as clear is why that is happening. Why not keep Santana in center field?

    The obvious reason is that Santana’s future is likely at shortstop, and so why not start that future that right now? But that raises the question: why not start that future last year? The easy answer is that center field was a disaster last year – but it doesn’t looks like a lot has changed. Just like last year, the Twins are throwing a lot of players at the problem in hope that one of them sticks.

    The other question it raises is: why not start that future, you know, in the future? By then, maybe Aaron Hicks has a track record in AAA that inspires some confidence. Maybe Byron Buxton is ready to take over center field for the next decade. Maybe Escobar has established himself as an everyday shortstop in the eyes of the league and becomes a much more valuable asset in a trade.

    Or, maybe, Escobar flames out. His doubters can point to last year’s 93 strikeouts (versus just 24 walks) as evidence that his success is far from assured, or that he’s ill-suited for the adjustment pitchers are likely to make this year. But that still is a solution, only now Hicks and Buxton (or Eddie Rosario?) have had more time to establish themselves in center field.

    In short, the Twins seem to be embracing a solution in search of a problem - except that the problem is fairly obvious. It hasn’t moved; it is where it was last year, in center field, not at shortstop. Escobar’s results should rank higher than whatever potential the Twins still see in their center field candidates. He may not be as stunningly beautiful as my lovely wife, but he’s dependable. Shouldn't that be the priority?

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    Yup, I agree with Nick. The reason that the Twins are going to start Santana at SS this year, but didn't last year has little to do with how solid we are at CF (John's right, there isn't much difference to last year). It has to do with who are manager is/was, and whether that manager was interested in winning as many games in the short run versus building for the long run.  That being said, while we need to figure out if Santana can be a SS, we also need to find at bats for Escobar because we need to find out if last year was a fluke. With Polanco, Escobar, and Santana all capable of potentially playing a couple of positions and hitting well in the next few years, we need to figure out who is going to be our starting SS, who is going to be a solid utility player, and who is (realistically) going to be traded. Sorry, but that may require tinkering, and not always having the bat in the lineup on a given day that is likely to do the most damage that day. But this is the time to figure that out.

     

    Can't we figure it out once we're 12 games back?  Which has been closer to May than September of late...  Seems like that would give plenty of time to experiment, check guys out, and make decisions for the future.  Unless of course the players we're fielding screw up and win too many games.

     

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    The problem is not Escobar. The problem, and it's a good one, is Santana. I like Escobar a lot. I was part of the "Free Escobar" campaign. I still like him a lot. And if this was just about any time in the last 10 years, the Twins would...and us...would be ever so grateful for him and he'd be written in ink, carved in stone for the starting SS spot. But it's not the past, it's now. Santana has as much pop if not more. Santana has more range, a stronger arm (so it seems), and more overall athleticism. Santana has more speed. Santana appears to have as good or better bat and as good or better discipline. So, no offense to Escobar, but he should start at SS over Santana why? Again, not a knock on Escobar, just a reality on Santana.

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    PS...I can understand the sentiment to move Santana back to CF. And I still believe he may see some time out there. But I have a really hard time taking a really talented SS, putting him back in to CF again, for what will still be a temporary move, and then...then do what with him a year for now? NOW try to make him your full time SS? Now put him in LF or RF where Arcia will be and probably Rosario?

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    He may not be as stunningly beautiful as my lovely wife, but he’s dependable.

    Well played, sir.

    I dunno. I'm not sure I'd want to be married to the woman who read this about herself and decided to take that last part as an unfavorable comparison. :)

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    I've asked this a couple of times on twitter, and now I'd invite Twins Daily readers to do some research, if you want...

     

    Has any 25-year-old shortstop ever posted a .275/.315/.406 (.721) with 35 doubles and 6 homers and played average or slightly better than average shortstop defense one year and not been handed the starting shortstop job by his team the following season?

     

    I feel bad for Escobar. Someone in the Twins clubhouse one day I was in there called it "The Power of the Label." Escobar has always been seen by people in the industry as a utility guy, and maybe that's what he is, but even after a strong season last year in nearly every day play, The Label still wins. 

    To be fair, "The Label" is usually based on a guy's long-term track record, so it's not all bad.

     

    The Twins have tried to buck "The Label" for various players over the years without a lot of sustained success: Nick Punto as starting 3B/SS, Brian Duensing as starter, Scott Diamond as staff leader, etc.  Diamond posted a 116 ERA+ (and even a better than average 96 FIP-) in 2012, but the Twins still would have been better off making him battle for a rotation spot in 2013.

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    I've asked this a couple of times on twitter, and now I'd invite Twins Daily readers to do some research, if you want...

     

    Has any 25-year-old shortstop ever posted a .275/.315/.406 (.721) with 35 doubles and 6 homers and played average or slightly better than average shortstop defense one year and not been handed the starting shortstop job by his team the following season?

    Here's a list of shortstops, ages 24-26, wRC+ 92-112 (Escobar was 102 last year), 400+ PA seasons:

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=1990&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=24%2c26&filter=25377&players=0&sort=18%2ca

     

    A few utility guys pop up (I am not sure what the SS qualifier means), but that's not necessarily bad for Escobar comps:

     

    - Sean Rodriguez basically stayed in his utility role for the 2012 Rays

    - Emilio Bonifacio shifted to CF/utility for the 2012 Marlins (they signed Jose Reyes)

    - Damian Jackson started at 2B for the 2001 Padres, then went back to utility

    - Ramon Vasquez was replaced at SS before the end of his follow-up season for the 2003 Pades

     

    A couple more stretch your defensive requirement:

    - Kurt Abbott was replaced at SS and shifted to utility not far into his follow-up season for the 1996 Marlins

    - Brendan Harris was traded, started at 2B for the 2008 Twins, but then fairly quickly found himself in a utility role

     

    A few more guys continued starting at SS but probably shouldn't have (2004 Angel Berroa!).

     

    The best team in this group (2012 Rays) more or less kept their young utility guy in his utility role.

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    Is Danny Santana equally subject to "The Label" of him as a shortstop?  I understand what they're doing with him and Escobar right now, but it's hard not to see Santana in CF and Escobar at SS as the optimal present-day (and arguably long-term) use of resources for the Twins.  (Although Escobar might be a bigger factor at 3B this year than most folks realize.)

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    Is Danny Santana equally subject to "The Label" of him as a shortstop?  I understand what they're doing with him and Escobar right now, but it's hard not to see Santana in CF and Escobar at SS as the optimal present-day (and arguably long-term) use of resources for the Twins.  (Although Escobar might be a bigger factor at 3B this year than most folks realize.)

    I think long term Buxton may have something to say about who mans CF in the long term:-)

    Edited by jimmer
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    I think long term Buxton may have something to say about who mans CF in the long term:-)

    Hopefully, but he's realistically a year-plus away.  Santana CF, Escobar SS for this season might still provide more long-term benefit to the Twins than Santana SS, Escobar utility, and sorting through various flotsam and jetsam in CF for a year.  The longer they both show they can handle starting roles, the better.

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    Let's take a step back to last Spring--Santana was professed to be "not ready" and sent to the minors.  Escobar was one of the guys from the Liriano trade--"or how the Twins SS problem was fixed". Back to 2006, Bartlett was deemed to be "not ready" (didn't "take charge" or something like that)--so the Twins started a mediocrity (a bit generous, but I'll be nice here) rather than promote Bartlett (who wasn't any Spring chicken). Enough was enough and the rookie was promoted in 2006 (only to be...it's too painful to continue). Returning to 2014, CF was a similar mess to '06's SS problem, so...promote somebody who has speed and a strong arm. Enter Santana. "Not Ready" to play SS, but somehow can be trusted in CF.

     

    Santana was a SS not a CF--but oh my did he hit way above expectations. He is still a SS and not a CF.

    The question to be answered: will the Twins develop the guy they had projected to be a starting SS or accept mediocrity to try to win a few more games this season (since I expect that CF will continue to be a bleeding ulcer)?

     

    As far as a trading one of them? I don't think the Twins were offered much (if anything) for either Santana or Escobar--else a trade would have happened by now.

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