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The Twins will have the largest bonus pool at their disposal (nearly $13.5 million), but won’t have the ability to “play the draft” as others have in the past. Comparing the last two drafts, the first pick this year has $7.4 million tied to it, a dramatic decrease from last year’s $9 million and change. The first overall pick this year is twice the slot of the 13th pick; last year the first pick was worth twice as much as the fifth pick. These changes that have happened in the new CBA put a direct damper on teams trying to tank for the first pick (or, more specifically, the money tied to the first pick).
Gone are the days when a team could cut a deal with a player (or two) and use those savings on a third player who miraculously drops in the draft. In 2015, the Astros, owning the second, fifth and thirty-seventh picks were able to hand out three of the highest six bonuses.
Don’t misunderstand, some players will still sign underslot and some will still sign for overslot. It’s just not going to be the same as it was before. And that directly impacts the Twins.
Fortunately, despite all the changes, the Twins will still pick first and still have their choice of all the players available. And there are some good ones.
You probably saw the Keith Law tweet on Friday night that California prep RHP Hunter Greene hit 100 mph. (Or if you bought the Twins Prospect Handbook, you read there that he’s touched 100 mph before.)
Law’s tweet really got Twitter going though.
But according to a source in California, Greene touched 102 mph last week and has demonstrated improved command of his entire four-pitch arsenal. Over 60 scouts witnessed Friday’s tilt, where Greene also showed his ability to hit.
2/7 Update: Was able to talk to another source who was at the game. Said Greene touched 101 on Friday night and that his slider "was better". The slider is the aforementioned "fourth pitch" to go with his curveball and change. The Twins are believed to have had three scouts in attendance.
The state of Minnesota swooned.
Greene has become the fan’s early favorite to be selected first overall. But will the front office decide this is the year where a prep right-handed pitcher finally goes first overall? Only time will tell.
If not, there are plenty of other options. The college season hasn’t gotten underway yet, but Vanderbilt OF Jeren Kendall is a polished, five-tool prospect who deserves to be in the conversation. The Twins are enamored with the college pitching class which includes RHP Alex Faedo, Florida; RHP Kyle Wright, Vanderbilt; RHP J.B. Bukauskas, North Carolina; and RHP Alex Lange, LSU; among others.
There are other preps to consider too and one of the names at the top of the list is California prep SS Royce Lewis. Lewis headlines a fairly deep group of prep hitters and is out to prove he can play the most difficult position in baseball. He has played third base, deferring to upperclassmen, but is making the move to shortstop this spring. Some scouts also believe his future home might be in centerfield. If there’s one thing the old regime loved: it’s toolsy preps such as Lewis.
Other notes:
Christopher Crawford, who formerly wrote for ESPN, is now posting draft info at Hero Sports. You can read more on both Lewis and Alex Faedo there.
Full draft slots and pick values can be found at Baseball America. It’s a place worth bookmarking.
You can see what’s changed since I wrote up and even earlier draft piece in October.
And going back even further, here’s a link to the Twins Daily Draft Preview of Baseball America’s #1 Prospect, Andrew Benintendi.
The college baseball season kicks off soon. Be sure to check back for updates on your (potentially new) favorite players.
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