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There were rumors last offseason about the Twins interest in Mike Napoli. The Twins reportedly offered Napoli more money, but he chose to sign with the Texas Rangers, believing that he would have a better opportunity to get to the playoffs.
Napoli, who could DH and play a little first base, is 36 years old and coming off a season in which he hit just .193/.285/.428 (.713), though he still hit 29 home runs. Could he be an option for the Twins in 2018, and if so, can he be more productive given less playing time?
Napoli doesn’t need to be the lone right-handed DH. For instance, Jose Bautista remains a free agent. Like Napoli, Bautista is coming off of a disappointing 2017 season with the Blue Jays. He hit .203/.308/.366 (.674) with 23 home runs. Of course, Twins fans know his track record against the Twins, particularly at Target Field. In 62 career games against the Twins, he has hit .302/.393/.699 (1.092) with 17 doubles and 24 home runs. In 25 games at Target Field, he has hit .324/.410/.794 (.1.204) with six doubles and 14 home runs. The 37-year-old has accumulated over $100 million in his long career, but he’d probably be looking at a one-year, $6-8 million deal from someone in hopes of improving on his 2017 season.
Matt Holliday is another veteran with a ton of experience. He played in 103 games in 2017 for the Yankees, primarily as a DH and pinch hitter. The 38-year-old hit 19 homers and hit .231/.316/.432 (.748). He made $13 million in 2017, but he should be available, like Bautista, for something in the $6-8 million range for one season.
Another $100 million man, Jayson Werth is coming off of a long-term contract with the Nationals. While he was a very good player from 2007 through 2014. He missed about half of the season in 2015 and 2017, and his OPS has dropped. Could he be convinced to sign and primarily get time as a DH and pinch hitter? He’ll likely get a one year deal in that same $6-8 million range. While he’s not a strong outfielder, he could get some time in the corner outfield positions.
Those four veteran options certainly have experience. Napoli is known as a very good teammate and leader. Bautista… isn’t. Holliday and Werth are probably somewhere in between.
While they don’t have the name recognition, the Twins currently have Robbie Grossman and Kennys Vargas available internally.
Grossman isn’t a great defensive outfielder, though he’s better defensively than the options above. He primarily DHd in 2017 and did well. He traditionally has hit better against left-handed pitching. And, in his first year of arbitration eligibility, he’ll make $2 million (25-40% of what those free agents would cost). And, most likely, while he won’t hit as many home runs, his ability to get on base, play some defense and be accepting of a role on the roster.
Vargas has struggled mightily with consistency, but he’s also shown an ability to hit the ball really hard and really far. He is a DH who is capable of playing some first base, if not well. But he’s posted OPS of .833 and .758 the last two seasons. He hit 10 homers in 47 games in 2016, and he had 11 homers last year in 78 games a year ago. And, he will cost somewhere around $600,000 in 2018.
In addition, Zack Granite is fully capable of playing all three outfield positions well, including center field. While he bats left-handed, it’s important to note that he had reverse splits in each of his first four seasons of professional baseball. In 2016 in AA, hit hit .296/.348 versus right-handers and .291/.345 against left-handers. In 2017, he hit .312/.379/.443 (.822) against right-handers and .325/.369/.412 (.781) against left-handers between AAA and the big leagues. In fact, his OPS against southpaws in the big leagues last year was .979. His first MLB home came off of lefty Blaine Hardy of the Tigers.
In last night’s podcast, Granite said, ““I don’t want to say I focus harder, but I feel like I have to stay in there longer. Honestly, when I face a lefty, I’m always scared that if they open up too soon, they’ll hit me in the head. But I know whenever I face a lefty that I have to stay in there longer. I think it helps me that I don’t try to do too much when I face a lefty. I just try to hit line drives right up the middle or the other way, wherever it’s pitched. I think that helps me because I literally try to be as simple as possible. With lefties, I can keep my game as simple as possible.”
There are several other free agent outfielders who are still out there. For instance, JD Martinez is still out there. Then again, he turned down (reportedly) a five-year, $100 million deal from the Red Sox, so I don’t think he makes much sense for the Twins. Andre Ethier’s long, huge contract with the Dodgers is finally complete. He’s a free agent, but he’s struggled for years, and he’s left-handed. Carlos Gomez and Carlos Gonzalez are both likely to get $10 million per year or more.
Two other free agent outfielders may make some sense.34-year-old Chris Young has played about half the time, maybe a little less, for the Red Sox the last couple of years. He’s mostly played left field. After posting an .850 OPS in 76 games in 2016, he posted a .709 OPS in 90 games in 2017. He could be available for about $4 million.
Cameron Maybin will turn 31 years old shortly after Opening Day. He began last year with the Angels before going to the Astros at the trade deadline and winning a World Series title. He posted an .801 OPS in 2016 in Detroit, but that was way above his career OPS of .693. His value comes from strong defense around the outfield. After making $9 million last year, he should be more in the $5-6 million range in 2018.
SUMMARY
So, if the Twins feel they need a DH type, there are several options, the most realistic of which are upper-30s guys coming off of long-term contracts and tough seasons. Are those guys better than Kennys Vargas (who is 27).
If you want a fourth/fifth outfielder, the decision is whether to add a defensive option like Cameron Maybin who hits right handed, or stand by Zack Granite who has had reverse splits in his career and plays terrific defense at all three outfield positions too.
And Robbie Grossman can play the corner outfield spots adequately and DH and pinch hit.
How does it all play together? Is signing a veteran hitter important? Should it be? And, how do we value that veteran-ness over giving guys like Vargas and Granite an opportunity?
Share your thoughts. In my opinion, I think I’d rather just go with the youth and give a shot to Granite, Grossman and Vargas. You’ll probably get equal production for just $3.25 million. And then spend the money not spent on a bat to a package for Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn (or Yu Darvish, if that works).. What do you think?
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