Do the Marlins Have the Best Lefty Reliever for the Twins this Deadline?

The Twins bullpen has been an endless discussion for fans the last month or more. Aside from Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, almost every other Twins reliever has received criticism from the fan base. 

As the calendar has turned to July, some of the notorious Twins relievers who have struggled all season are beginning to turn this around. Tyler Duffey, for instance, has had 12 straight scoreless appearances including four games so far this month. 

Caleb Thielbar has improved from June, but his career trajectory is still showing he is not the same reliever he used to be. Thielbar has led the Twins in relief appearances this season with 38 could be an issue as the season goes on. 

In addition to all this, Thielbar has been the only lefty the Twins have consistently relied on in matchups this season. All other lefties, Jovani Moran, and Danny Coulombe, have combined for 23 games and none of them have had the chance to stay in the bullpen as long as him. 

The Twins bullpen is going to need another lefty reliever for the remainder of the season, one who can take some of the heavy load Thielbar has had to carry for the bullpen this year. One such option might just be closer to the homeland of Tony Oliva than he is to Minnesota right now. That man is Steven Okert of the Miami Marlins.

Okert has been one of the sneaky good relievers in baseball the past two seasons. He had been away from the big leagues from 2019-20 after parts of three seasons with the Giants from 2016-18. The southpaw has been with the Marlins since the start of the 2021 season and has seen a resurgence in his career. 

Based on traditional pitching stats, Okert just might be the lefty the Twins need. This season, he has a 2.35 ERA in 36 relief appearances averaging 11 K/9, a .180 batting average on balls in play, and an overall opponent batting average of .158. 

What’s the potential downside with Okert? His control of the strike zone. He has a 2.33 K/BB ratio this season alongside a 5.03 FIP. Granted, Okert has only 16 walks in his 36 relief appearances so far this season, but he has done so in 28.2 innings pitched leading to a 4.7 BB per 9 rate.

Does Okert's pitching arsenal correlate with his high walk rate? 

His go-to pitch is a slider, throwing it 70.1% of the time according to Baseball Info Solutions. The only other pitch Okert has thrown this season is his fastball, accounting for the remain 28.9% of his arsenal. 

The Twins are not unfamiliar with having pitchers with heavy slider usage in recent years; however, the slider-favored pitching coach, Wes Johnson, is gone and can't provide the same help in getting his strike zone control.

Would Okert be another good lefty to compliment Thielbar the Twins could acquire this trade deadline? It’s possible. 

Okert is throwing better against hitters making contact against him than Thielbar as Thielbar has a .325 batting average with balls in play and overall opponents batting average .236. But Thielbar has better control of the strike zone as he has a 3.00 K/BB ratio and 3.47 FIP. The opposites that Okert and Thielbar are with their numbers presented could help provide a balance with left-handed relief options.

Taking these things into consideration, the last factor to consider if Okert is worthwhile to pair up with Thielbar for the remainder of the season is age and contract status. Okert just turned 31 on July 9 and does not qualify for free agency until 2027 when he is 36. 

A trade for Okert could turn him into the next Thielbar with arbitration-friendly contract control until his mid 30’s. But having contract control for five more seasons could make Okert’s price tag high for Miami. The Marlins would likely want a player they need under team control for just as long or longer.

There is a current Twins outfielder the Marlins may ask for in return for Okert that would be under contract with the team until 2028. And the Marlins do need an outfielder who is MLB ready for beyond 2022; that outfielder is Gilberto Celestino.

Celestino is a fourth outfielder now with the Twins, and if he gets the opportunity to play every day, he could pan out to be a gold glover someday. Plus, Celestino has a higher OPS, .665, than two of the three everyday outfielders for the Marlins right now, Jesus Sanchez has a .649 OPS, and Avisail Garcia with a .594. 

But what if Miami would prefer a left handed hitting outfielder instead? The only one the Twins would be willing to provide out of the likes of Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon, and Matt Wallner for a reliver like Okert could be Gordon. Gordon enters free agency the same year as Celestino and the bar for achievement at the Major League level is lower than that of the three other left handed hitting outfielders listed. 

Would the Twins make this trade both for short and long-term relief help? Only time will tell, but Twins fans should keep an eye on Okert in the weeks to come