Diving Into The Offseason: A Dozier Extension?

I would love to see the Twins extend Dozier. After 2018, I think he could move to 1B if we have other middle infielders pushing their way into major league spots. I think his bat will be good for a 1B for another 2-3 years after 2018. I would hope that he would go for 3 years with one option year. You never know, he might show appreciation for the team that brought him up, and didn't trade him for cheap. And giving Molitor 3 years might have helped make this deal.

I'd limit the contract to 3 years, raise Seth's annual salary for 2019 to $18M and give Dozier an opt-out before 2020. ($3M bonus/$18M/$16M/$14M = $51M). The Twins could add a 4th year with vesting option/buyout.

Otherwise, let it play out to the end of the year. IMO, the Twins need his production to compete in 2018. 

When is the Twins' window?

Teams other than the rich boys have to plan for a cycle if they want to win championships. Down-cycles bring high draft picks, which are then the core of the up-cycle contenders. Of the four teams still alive for the championship this year, the Dodgers, Cubs, and Yankees are rich and can buy all the toys all the time. The Astros (and the Nationals had they made it) are up-cycle teams who used a few terrible years with high draft choices to build the core of an excellent team that matured all at once. Their window is now.

When is the Twins' window? As has been discussed here at length, the Twins will struggle to hold onto all of Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Polanco, Kepler, Rosario, etc. I see the Twins' window as opening in 2019 and lasting until about 2021, extended possibly by one year on either side. So I evaluate any transactions based on how they affect the likely quality of the team over the five-year period 2018-22.

This period would correspond to Dozier's potential remaining career if re-signed. Given a bumpy first year (as nearly all of our rookies have), Gordon starts contributing maybe in 2020 and Lewis maybe at the end of the window. How do we get to the point that Gordon, then Lewis, are actually good? It seems like we have an incumbent who fits perfectly: excellent in 2018 and 2019, and probably a solid contributor (if not the team's MVP) in 2020 and couple of years beyond. Plus, he is the team's clubhouse leader (something that I think is very important but that we, as outsiders, don't know much about) and a very popular player.

The same glut of great secondbasemen that drove down the trade prospects is also going to moderate his salary options as a free agent. I think they can sign him to a reasonable 4-5-year contract (counting 2018) and that they should.

One more thing. We have been told for years that the money is there if the opportunity arises. Well, this is the opportunity. As we swing up the cycle, so does the marginal benefit of additional salary commitment. The Twins should be looking to increase the salary budget to take advantage of their window. For me, the key is to avoid (when they can) the long-term commitments like those that the Tigers gave to Cabrera (30m+) and Zimmerman (25m), which will eat up budget over the next 5 years of mediocrity. 

Good luck to the Twins in finding the sweet spot that brings in enough star power to contend for titles through the window without threatening bankruptcy if we fall short!

I don't think Lewis is going to be a shortstop in the majors, but I'm not doubting him putting in the necessary effort to improve there. 

 

Gordon is going to get his shot at SS in the near future, and I think he can stick. He won't be flashy, but I think he'll be better than Polanco. Jermaine Palacios is keeping himself in the SS conversation too.

 

I love Dozier, but the obvious path for the middle infield moving forward is Polanco taking over at 2B and Gordon sliding into SS. If you sign Dozier, that means Polanco or Gordon is without a spot.

 

So I think there's 2 scenarios:

 

1. Trade or not re-sign Dozier to get a Gordon/Polanco middle infield

2. Sign Dozier and trade Gordon or Polanco (you probably can only trade Gordon)

Couldn't one of them slide over to 3rd if Dozier is resigned too?

Dude has gotten better with time.  He plays all the time, hits 30 jacks.  The Twins need to be keeping their stars.  Obviously you don't sign him to a 10-year deal, but this guy needs to be in our lineup.  We can't afford to let him go somewhere else.  I'm sick of seeing stars get dealt for prospects.  The cool thing to do now days is get a new, young guy in there that is bound to be a star, but how often does that pan out?  We have a 2B that hits for power at the top of our lineup that isn't a liability in the field?  This is a no-brainer.  SIGN HIM!!!  Polanco and Gordon aren't going to supply the offense that this guy does.

I would love Dozier to stay on, but I wouldn't hate him signed for anything too much longer than 2021 or 2022.  Unless things go drastically wrong by 2022 the next "wave" of prospects should be ready. One of Marte, Lewis, Javier, Miranda, Arraez, Palacios, Bechtold , Blankenhorn, or Del La Torre will be ready to take the MI helm and will hopefully push guys like Gordon, Polanco, and Dozier out.  

The FO needs to keep contracts of guys like Dozier short, while focusing on guys like Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Berrios, Romero (hopefully), Gonsalves (Hopefully) & May (hopefully)

There is no reason, unless he gets no offers next winter, for him to take a 2-3 year deal with the Twins. This is his last chance to cash in. Most of these free agent deals make sense the first couple years and don't in the later years. So if the Twins give him a 5 year deal, which he'll likely want, expect the last couple years to be a bad deal. That's just the way it usually goes.

IMO spend the money on some quality pitching next winter

I would say extend for 3 years at 40 million with a 15 million option year.

Last offseason i said extend him. This offseason i say it again. At the end of his 5 year extension he should have over 300 HRs, 1000 runs, and some other good counting stats maybe 750-800 RBIs. He likes it here and we are in contention window. Why wouldnt he want to resign. We are not too far from Mississippi where hes from.

Revenue to payroll ratio, two years ago:

http://i.imgur.com/yPYrkOg.jpg

I am inclined to agree with those that say QO Dozier.  If Gordon doesn't look like he is ready after next year and Dozier takes the QO then we can go year to year with him until confident someone else can step into that role.  

If he declines the QO we still have Esco and Adrianza to fill in at short if Gordon isn't ready and the potential to get draft pick compensation.  

I think the worst thing you could do is sign Dozier long term and this is his one shot at the big money so he won't likely take a short term deal unless the market just isn't there. He is one of my favorite players but i agree with others that the money would be better spent on quality pitching if possible.

Everybody on the roster excluding Buxton and Berrios should be available for the right deal.

I just don't seeing trading Dozier unless it makes next year's team better, because IMO I don't see anybody really close to replacing him. Fingers are crossed that Gordon can do it soon, but him tailing in the second half threw big red flags for me.

Well, you definitely don't trade him now. There just isn't a trade market for 2Bs. We should be trying to win in 2018 and trading him for peanuts is not going to help us win.

I think he will play out the final year of his deal and we'll reevaluate things at the end of 2018. Did he have another great year? Is there any middle infield prospects ready behind him and Polanco? How are we going to afford Dozier from 2019 to 2021?

Plus he's not going to take some 3 year $40M deal. He's going to be well paid by someone, and that's not gonna be us if we lowball him.

Devil's advocate:  If Dozier were so good, why nobody was willing to give anything better than a rookie SP in return for him last off-season?

 

That is a serious piece of data that should not be ignored and speaks directly about the league's perception of how good he really is...

Dozier is a good 2B, the problem is that most teams have pretty solid 2Bs, so they won't be giving up a lot of prospects to somewhat increase their 2B's hitting. Playing defense there isn't very hard compared to SS and 3B and you can stick a decent bat at 2B. Dozier's trade value would be much higher if he could play SS well, then teams would be jumping at the gun. 

Dozier will want more than 3 years.

If and I know that is a big if you could sign Dozier for three years at a reasonable rate then I think that would be tough to pass up given his production.  Not sure what that means for the Gordon Timeline but Doziers production is not easily replaced especially his power.  He should have another 3 years of solid production in him and or at least it is a good bet.

If you felt like Gordon was ready or a better option later on you could attempt to trade him again as well.

My hunch is that he gets a four year deal with a fifth year option.  Depending on what he costs dollar wise I don't think it makes sense for the Twins to spend that much on a 2nd baseman but he is the team leader and a solid producer so they might see things differently.