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  • In Defense of the Twins Front Office


    Nick Nelson

    The Minnesota Twins' front office blew it this year. There is no way around that, and no credible argument against it.

    But ultimately, it's one year. The number of statements from fans I've seen along the lines of "Clean house!" and "Fire Falvine!" and "These guys have no idea what they're doing" ... It demonstrates short-term memory at best. At worst? A bit of an entitled mindset.

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    The Twins hired Derek Falvey (who hired Thad Levine) in the wake of a disastrous 103-loss season in 2016. By that point, the Twins had gone six straight years without making the playoffs, and during that span they lost more games than any team in baseball. 

    The following year, Minnesota stunningly reached the postseason as a wild-card team. Then they missed out in 2018, still finishing second, before rebounding in 2019 with one of the greatest seasons in franchise history. The Twins followed in 2020 with another division title. 

    To run all that back: this front office took over a team that had gone 407-565 (.419) with zero playoff appearances in its previous six years, and went 300-246 (.549) with three playoff appearances in the next four. 

    Does their success owe somewhat to the foundation built before they arrived? Of course. No one would deny that Terry Ryan and Co. had cultivated an impressive nucleus before being ousted. But during those years, the Twins repeatedly failed in the draft, failed in acquisitions, and failed in player development. The results bore that out.

    Let's be clear about something here: This current regime was so successful and so impressive through four years that they were repeatedly poached of talent, both in the front office and the coaching staffs they assembled. Not only that, but Falvey and Levine themselves have been courted by big-name franchises like the Red Sox and Phillies. 

    What did they say, according to publicized reports on the matter? 

    "No thanks, we're going to see through what we're building here."

    And so, to see flocks of fans calling for their heads because of one bad season, which is no worse than the ones we saw repeatedly before they arrived ... it's a little hard to take. 

    Falvey became the youngest head exec in the league when he took Minnesota's top job. Currently he is 38 years old, which is three years younger than the DH he traded to Tampa Bay last month. Up until now he never experienced serious adversity during his tenure, which speaks to how smoothly things have gone in the first four years. 

    The same could be said, by the way, for his managerial choice Rocco Baldelli, who was named Manager of the Year in 2019 (as the youngest skipper in baseball, with no experience in the role) and then won a second straight division title in his second season.

    These people have shown their mettle. They've won. A lot. I realize they haven't won in the playoffs, and that sucks, but they haven't had nearly the opportunity of their predecessors. 

    Are we not going to give them a chance to learn from failure?

    Obviously the free agent pitching additions from the past winter have failed at every level. But this front office has made plenty of good and savvy pickups in the past, which helped fuel the success of high-quality staffs the last two years. And in any case, Falvey wasn't really hired to sign pitchers. He was hired to develop them.

    On that front, the jury is still out. This operation was four years in when a pandemic came along and wiped out an entire minor-league season. The fact that Minnesota's upper minors are currently loaded with intriguing high-upside arms would suggest the mission was on track, and is just now getting back on the rails. 

    Soon we'll start seeing those arms (along with the ones acquired at the deadline this year) ushered into majors, and at that point we'll be able to make real assessments. But until then, you're judging an incomplete project. 

    This reassembled baseball ops department has been working ahead of schedule basically since they took over a moribund franchise in despair. They hit a setback this year, and it's been painful. Let's give them a chance to get back on track in the wake of a major disruptive event and humbling follow-up season.

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    17 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    For sure, but you just listed the two best-run organizations in all of baseball. 28 teams are jealous of what those teams accomplish on a yearly basis.

    True, and some of them, like the Giants, are tapping into that instead of the Cleveland and Texas orgs....

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    1 minute ago, LastOnePicked said:

    Imagine two people run a race. One has everything it needs to win (good shoes, youth, rest, health), and the other runs the race barefooted and hungover. No, it's not the "fault" of the one with the advantage for winning the race, but it's probably not best for him/her to brag too much about winning it, either.

    Those two division titles are often used as Exhibit A as to why we FO detractors are "wrong." But what was our record against those outside our division and against teams above .500? Most importantly, what was our experience in the playoffs after those titles were won?

    I'm not angry that they haven't won a World Series, by the way, but I'm concerned that they haven't even in one game been remotely competitive. For all the hype, there just hasn't been much substance.   

    I'm coming off as harsher than I probably am, but I'm surprised that the consensus fan response at this point isn't a whole lot of skepticism and a whole lot of pressure on these guys to make good on their stated objectives. As someone else said here, their leash should be very short at this point. We seem almost too quick to accept their excuses ... or worse, even to make excuses for them.

    Maybe I'm not clear....I think we have no idea if they are great at their job or not, and if they don't have legit pitchers up from the system next year, I'll start calling for their jobs......As for the division wins, they literally can only play the games they are scheduled to play, and they won A LOT of them......I fail to see how that isn't impressive after the previous regime was awful at winning.

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    2 hours ago, joefish said:

    I am not seeing any improvement in Larnach. Not at the plate. Not on the field. Not running the bases. Not with his defense. Nothing.

     

    Here is Larnach's OPS by month this season as an early call up trying to adjust to the bigs; 845, 704, 518, and 879. Looks like a guy who took some big shots and is picking himself up. That's exactly what we want from our prospects. 

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    We will get a true picture of the minor leagues going into next season. After the washed-out 2020, in which the Twins did pay all their minor league guys, we saw the Twins front office front-load the upper two levels with more than 30 minor league free agents.

     

    The ONE big issue has been injuries. Currently the Twins have Duran, Colina, Dobnak, Smeltzer on the 40-man roster. Earlier they had Thorpe and Balazovic. Plus you have assorted other names out with injuries. Not to mention names like Sands and Enlow and Canterino who would all be playing above current roster space. Not to mention Winder. The Twins are carrying/relying on a lot of pitchers that just aren't...pitching.

     

    We sit here in Twins Daily land and seldom look at the big picture day-to-day. 40-man roster management is an art. Every player in the system is evaluated on where they are today, should be tomorrow, will they move too fast and need to be added to a tight 40-man, or flare out a bit and be grabbed by someone else.

     

    I can see the Twins holding back on Sands, Enlow and Villamont with hopes no one will see them major league ready and allow the Twins to get another year of minor league play before making their own hard decision.

     

    The washed out 2020 season allowed players to move towards their own free agency, but there will be a helluva a lot of players switching organizations come this winter because they have stagnated in an organization, grew older, and jobs will be harder to find as organizations suddenly have a full draft of guys to put into their system.

     

    I like what Falvey and Levine have done with the coaching throughout the system, bringing in collegiate coaches, and getting a solid system in place. Making Fr. Myers your low-A team to also feed off of the FCL League is great. The Twins have a wonderful complex.

     

    I may disagree on many of the free agent choices, but did expect better results overall. I do keep thinking back to all those early extra innings lost. If we had dominated, we would be sitting where Cleveland is right now. I will blame the front office for not spending on a first rate closer and a #1 starting pitcher, both in limited supply.  Would the Twins have been better served with Hendricks in tow? Keeping May? Well, they get to try again, see if anyone wants to come here.

     

    If I have a frustration, it is more on the field. Establish your couple of severe batting orders and stick with them. Get players and give them a position. So many guys have played anywhere and everywhere. Maybe it is fun for them, but it reminds me of T-ball. 

     

    And don't be afraid to cut guys, NOT just the revolving 40th player thru the bullpen staff, but others. Especially in a losing season.

     

    Total looksee has to be on 2022 and beyond. Yeah, Colome and Coulombe are fine, Burrows needs a long look, Farrell may be a keeper if you like Wisler. But if these guys are truly coming back in 2022, you can probably still get them, and keeping them on your roster doesn't make it any more likely that they will come back once the season ends anyway.

     

    Falvey and Levine are still dealing with the previous administration. I ask myself every year "what to do with Sano." Kepler signed a decent extension, and may end up being the 4th outfielder because of it. We saw them pull the plug on Berrios to go in their own direction, and that deal looks good. They seem to be prepping for a team without Buxton, although we pretty much have been that way for 2021.

     

    Lots of player decisions. 26 players need to be here that can play, Preferably all year, in Target Field. Another 10 have to be ready to play from Day One to 30 days out. We can't have a roster full of guys who gave little to the major league club in 2021, starting with Buxton's paltry 27 games and including no shows from Duran, Balazovic (so far), Colina. Little from Thorpe and Smeltzer. Pitiful from Happ and Shoe and Colome. Guys like Stashak eating up a spot with Law and Farrell.

     

    At one point our outfield was Rooker, larnach and Refsnyder. That says it all, and definitely not the plan Falevine saw going forth! Plus an infield of Garver, Astudillo, Polanco, Sano.

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    17 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

    One thing I’m sure of is that the White Sox FO has totally, thoroughly and completely drubbed the Twins FO over the last 2-3 years. It’s stunning, really!

    The turn around actual began at the end of 2016 season when they traded Chris Sale and Adam Eton.  Of course, Sale was a considerably better player than Berrios.  They did exactly what so many people here absolutely deplore and insist would be the ruination of the team.  They had seven years straight of being well below 500.  They did a good job with draft picks and Keuchel has worked out well.  He is not exactly the level if elite FA that many here presume is an absolute must for this team to contend.  Let's just not pretend the Whitesox did not go through a rebuild.  What the Whitesox rebuild illustrates is that trading away "Berrios / Sale / Eaton type" players greatly accelerates the process.

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    Just now, Major League Ready said:

    The turn around actual began at the end of 2016 season when they traded Chris Sale and Adam Eton.  Of course, Sale was a considerably better player than Berrios.  They did exactly what so many people here have an absolutely deplore and insist it's the ruination of the team.  They had seven years straight of being well below 500 hundred.  They did a good job with draft picks and Keuchel has worked out well.  He is not exactly the level if elite FA that many here presume is an absolute must for this team to contend.  Let's just not pretend the Whitesox did not go through a rebuild.  What the Whitesox rebuild illustrates is that trading away "Berrios type" players greatly accelerates the process.

    Ya, this hasn't been 2-3 years in the making at all.....

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    20 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

    To add - I was as done with Terry Ryan as most, but it seems to me Terry didn't micro manage the on field game stuff. Watching most games this year, I feel like Rocco is being told what to do more often than not. This front office wants to manage games and I think that's a problem. 

    I actually don't think they are micromanaging in-game stuff as much as everyone suspects.

    I think Baldelli THINKS he's following the basic guidelines, but I think there's many situations where he's way off of what the analytics would suggest. I bet there's lots of decisions he makes where the front office just scratches their heads.

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    3 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

    I agree with you Brock. I think they’ve had enough time and it’s not just one bad year.

    The bad decisions started after the 2019 season. Would the Twins have been better with Schoop and Cron this year? Yes. It’s all the unnecessary attrition which reminds me of the attrition the year JJ Hardy, Orlando Hudson, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and a 5th player were let go and the subsequent attrition-driven drop.

    So we’ve forfeited Schoop, Cron, Wade, Badoo, Rosario (I’m a fan, others aren’t), Odorrizi (still better this year than Happ or Shoemaker), Zack Littell, Romo, Kyle Gibson, Trevor May, Matt Wisler, Ryne Harper (ouch!),  Rich Hill, Pressley, Eduardo Escobar, Tyler Clippard in two short years.

    Is the above acceptable for a list of players willingly let go by Falvey in 2 years?

    Further, with a glaring problem of Byron Buxton’s chronic missed time, they failed to obtain a proper backup for cf. 

    The continued acquisition of bargain basement gambles seems a way to being the worst team in baseball rather than the best. That Burrows start was a real head scratcher.

    My opinion is that Baldelli is in over his head as a manager. I will give him credit for some recent improvement in coming out to get pitchers in a more timely fashion to still give the Twins a chance.

    Then there’s sending Burrows out for a 2nd inning. How many games has he kicked away by letting starters get the Twins so far behind that they have no chance? I would cite a late 2019 game where he left Martin Perez in for 8 runs in the first two innings. Game, set, match. Then Shoemaker for 9 runs in 1 inning. 

    Credit? The Berrios deal is worthy of optimism at this point. Ascension of Arraez is great, not sure who gets credit for that. Kirilloff and Larnach being given a chance. I have high hopes for Miranda.

    All in all, management put the Twins in a deep hole with a series of bad trades and releases, etc.

    Schoop would be nice to have, but he didn't really have a position in the starting lineup if they were viewing Arraez as a starter. If I was Schoop and I could pick between starting everyday for DET or being a backup for MIN, I'd take DET in a heartbeat.

    Cron would not be helping this team at all. He was awful in DET last year, and is posting a 110 OPS+ (For Coors that's average at best) this year. The Twins were never going to sign him and for, at the time, good reasons. Plus, once again, he wouldn't have a spot in the starting lineup on this team.

    Wade and Baddoo I can't argue with.

    Rosario? That's who we're making the argument for? There's a reason all 30 GMs in the MLB agreed that he wasn't worth his $10M price tag that the Twins would've had to pay by rule. He's (had) a decent bat, but he was bad defensively and ATROCIOUS on the bases. I think he has a Low Baseball IQ. And Corner Outfield was by far the place where the farm was most loaded, they weren't going to block Kirilloff with him.

    Littell I agree with.

    Romo is a washed up 38-yard junkballer who belongs on a team like Arizona.

    Gibson was hurt and horrid at the end of 2019 for the Twins. At the time I was in favor of letting him go.

    Trevor May would've been nice to bring back. Also, they probably should've chosen Hill over Happ. Ryne Harper, fine.

    Escobar was on an expiring deal and needed to be traded in 2018. Is the argument that they should've resigned him in 2019?

    Clippard hit the 60-Day IL before the season. The FO pretty clearly knew something we didn't.

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    5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

    I actually don't think they are micromanaging in-game stuff as much as everyone suspects.

    I think Baldelli THINKS he's following the basic guidelines, but I think there's many situations where he's way off of what the analytics would suggest. I bet there's lots of decisions he makes where the front office just scratches their heads.

    Who do you think decided to start Burrows last night? I'm betting the front office. Who decided Colome was our April closer instead of Rogers? Who is deciding our best contact hitter and lead off batter wouldn't get a position? Arraez gets a few more ab's and he just might win the silver slugger - and he is our utility player. I simply was attempting to give Rocco some benefit of the doubt here. He is tentative during games. Must be someone looking over his shoulder - or he thinks so.

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    12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    I think we have no idea if they are great at their job or not

    But we do have an idea after these 5-6 years. They took over one of the worst teams in baseball, and they are again one of the worst teams in baseball. In between, they won zero playoff games. Their trades and free agent signings are a mixed bag at best. Their internal talent evaluation is very poor. They have made dubious contract extensions, and whiffed on extending higher-impact players. Their highly-touted young arms have mostly blown out. The deals they made at this year's deadline generated plenty of press, but the proof of their impact is years away, while the players they traded are thriving.

    I'm not saying anything negative about who they are as human beings. But I just don't understand the fan loyalty at this point, which doesn't in any way seem earned. Was it all the dazzle of the Bomba Squad year? Don't get me wrong - I LOVE that we beat the Yankees for the season HR record, but I'd trade that in a second for an organization that produces competitive talent more like the Rays or Giants.

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    7 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

    But we do have an idea after these 5-6 years. They took over one of the worst teams in baseball, and they are again one of the worst teams in baseball. In between, they won zero playoff games. Their trades and free agent signings are a mixed bag at best. Their internal talent evaluation is very poor. They have made dubious contract extensions, and whiffed on extending higher-impact players. Their highly-touted young arms have mostly blown out. The deals they made at this year's deadline generated plenty of press, but the proof of their impact is years away, while the players they traded are thriving.

    I'm not saying anything negative about who they are as human beings. But I just don't understand the fan loyalty at this point, which doesn't in any way seem earned. Was it all the dazzle of the Bomba Squad year? Don't get me wrong - I LOVE that we beat the Yankees for the season HR record, but I'd trade that in a second for an organization that produces competitive talent more like the Rays or Giants.

    29 teams have no idea how the Rays do it....how many WS have the Rays won, btw?

    And I don't get giving them zero credit for the good years. Almost zero teams are great every year...expecting this team to do that right away (and after the pandemic) seems like you and others are setting yourselves up for disappointment. 

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    Just now, Mike Sixel said:

    I don't get giving them zero credit for the good years.

    In the interest of fairness, there were some very good FA signings in 2019: Cruz, Cron, Schoop. This made for a very nice mix of established veterans, guys with something to prove and developing young talent. They were a dominant AL Central team in 2019 (though they did maybe benefit from a Cleveland slide at the end). It was fun. Good for them.

    2020 doesn't strike me as all that good. Many players regressed, and they backed into the division title against fairly weak competition. Had 2020 been a full season, I doubt the Twins would have even made the playoffs last year. 

    How much credit are they supposed to get for this? I fully understand that if the WS is the only goal, then fans of 28 teams are going to experience disappointing seasons each year. As a fan, I would have considered just some degree of postseason fight - and the development of a young core and strong starting staff and bullpen to build upon - to be worthy of praise. These things just haven't happened. Instead of building and getting stronger, they've now completely collapsed as an organization and seemingly missed a window of contention.

    Again, why is that worthy of credit?

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    10 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

    In the interest of fairness, there were some very good FA signings in 2019: Cruz, Cron, Schoop. This made for a very nice mix of established veterans, guys with something to prove and developing young talent. They were a dominant AL Central team in 2019 (though they did maybe benefit from a Cleveland slide at the end). It was fun. Good for them.

    2020 doesn't strike me as all that good. Many players regressed, and they backed into the division title against fairly weak competition. Had 2020 been a full season, I doubt the Twins would have even made the playoffs last year. 

    How much credit are they supposed to get for this? I fully understand that if the WS is the only goal, then fans of 28 teams are going to experience disappointing seasons each year. As a fan, I would have considered just some degree of postseason fight - and the development of a young core and strong starting staff and bullpen to build upon - to be worthy of praise. These things just haven't happened. Instead of building and getting stronger, they've now completely collapsed as an organization and seemingly missed a window of contention.

    Again, why is that worthy of credit?

    They brought up 3 top 100 prospects (depending on how you feel about Jeffers) this year.....one of whom is hurt. That isn't a young core? They also have Arraez and Polanco, and Rortverdt ready in AAA if needed. How many new players do you want added every year?

    I'll give you the pitching, they have failed there so far.....

    Maybe I'm not clear.....I'm not "giving them credit" or saying there are good....I am saying we don't know yet. It takes A LONG time to develop a pitching pipeline. Like, next year ........

    We are pretty clearly at an impasse. You've made up your mind, I haven't. I'm ok with that.

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    1 hour ago, h2oface said:

    Expected. That might be the biggest problem. They expected to be good, and seemed to ignore the last 4o days, over half, of the short 2020 season, in which they were barely a .500 team, and moving downward, both at the plate and on the mound. And they went 0-3 (0-6 total) in the playoffs. That continued this year, and there was no upgrade in any of the pitching. Horrible choices. Horrible. And Burrows on the mound.... for 2 innings yesterday! Still making them.

    Baseball Reference says they were a game over .500 in August last year and won at a .667 clip in September (24 games) of last year. They scored 119 runs with 112 against in August, compared to 110 for and 80 against in September.

    I know that 2020 was a weird year, but I don't recall September occurring before August. Seems like you might be misremembering a little bit.

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    6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

    Actually, there is no denying it went very poorly but blowing it suggests there were much better options.  I have asked twice now for those who are calling out the pitching acquisitions to articulate a plan (in hindsight) that would have put this team in contention.  Pitchers that were actually traded and free agents we could have signed.

    Were we going to get Wainwright away from STL?

    James Paxton pitched 1 inning

    Garret Richards’s has a 5.22 REA and a WHIP of 1.65

    Drew Smyly has been decent with a 4.5 ERA / 1.45 WHIP / .6 WAR

    Corey Kluber pitched 50 innings and is now on the 60 day IL

    Charlie Morton has been good but his geographic preference is well known so that was not going to happen.

    Mike Minor has an ERA of 5.39 and .3 WAR

    Jake Odorizzi was a popular choice here.  His 4.95 ERA and 0 WAR would not have helped.

    The guy I wanted (Taijuan Walker) has been good but he got no support here when I floated him as an option.

    We could have traded for Blake Snell like so many here insisted was a no brainer.  We could have given up a bunch of prospects for a replacement level player.

    The same is true for a lot of the BP options.  Rosenthal / Clippard / Romo / Etc

    There was nothing wrong with the Simmons signing.  He has had a bad year or is in decline.  We should not sign most free agents if the possibility of decline makes it a bad decision.  Sometimes reasonable decisions don't pan out in baseball.  There is a credible argument that the choices that were popular here would have left the team in worse shape going forward.  

    Is is reasonable to eschew other means to acquire pitching and rely on bottom tier FAs to fill out 40% of your rotation in year 5 when the expectation is to compete for a WS? This FO put themselves in that position. The disaster that is this season is a culmination of decisions that stretch back beyond just this year. They shouldn't get a pass because the FA crop, which they chose to rely on, wasn't great. 

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    2 hours ago, h2oface said:

    But their pen was one of the best ever, especially the 7/8/9th inning guys. No ace(s) and horrible pen is what the story is here. How is that working for you?

    And last year the Twins had the Cy Young runner-up + a bullpen that ranked third in MLB in WAR behind the two World Series finalists. Again: I'm not saying the Twins front office doesn't deserve criticism for blowing it this year, only that it needs to be tempered against their successes from past years. 

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    The Twins "success" over the past few years has been built upon the ruins of the worst division in baseball. The Tigers and Royals were in full rebuild modes, the White Sox were emerging from their own reboot and Cleveland has been hampered by ongoing and oppressive budgetary issues. When the Twins had to play with the big boys (the playoffs); they were exposed,  being dispatched swiftly and with extreme prejudice. I am not sure what success we are talking about. 

    Falvey and Levine haven't done admirable jobs nor probably fireable jobs. But now the Twins are in purgatory. The FO won't admit,  to use a real estate term, the house is a "scraper" A property that should be leveled and rebuilt. They have no chance to compete next year but to say that would be the worst defeat of all. So they will try to patch the roof one more time and hope it doesn't rain next year.  In Twins territory, it has rained for thirty years.     

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    1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    For sure, but you just listed the two best-run organizations in all of baseball. 28 teams are jealous of what those teams accomplish on a yearly basis.

    I would add that they're also two of the most analytical front offices in baseball, whose operational models the Twins have clearly tried to mimic and whose talent the Twins have repeatedly plundered in trades. Which is an ironic element of some of the critiques I've seen.

    "These geeky over-analytic execs and coaches! Why can't they be more like the Rays?!" lol wut

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    I would have a much easier time chalking up 2021 as some bad luck if I could look optimistically at 2022.

    But from where I sit--and I realize there's an entire offseason to change the roster--it's very hard to imagine this team anywhere close to even .500 next year. They're short 4 starters, half a dozen relievers, and a SS at minimum. I'd say there's a reasonable chance they're WORSE next year rather than better.

    They said their goal is to compete every year. Hard to see them giving themselves a passing grade on that goal, so I don't know how I can. 

     

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    5 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    Is is reasonable to eschew other means to acquire pitching and rely on bottom tier FAs to fill out 40% of your rotation in year 5 when the expectation is to compete for a WS? This FO put themselves in that position. The disaster that is this season is a culmination of decisions that stretch back beyond just this year. They shouldn't get a pass because the FA crop, which they chose to rely on, wasn't great. 

    Spot on.

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    2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

    $183M for 16 WAR is $11.4M/WAR.  In a market where the going rate is $8M-$10M/WAR, that's not great, but it's also not bad.  Throw Cruz back in, with his $34ish million and 7.5ish WAR, and now they're at $207M for 23.5 WAR, or $8.8M/WAR.  If anything, this shows why spending big in FA should be viewed as a last resort.

    Right, which is what Gleeman stated in the article I linked. Cruz was such a great signing (possibly best in team history) that it cancels out the rest of the bad signings. The bad signings did happen, and many were counted on to be impact players. 

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    1 hour ago, In My La Z boy said:

    Who do you think decided to start Burrows last night? I'm betting the front office. Who decided Colome was our April closer instead of Rogers? Who is deciding our best contact hitter and lead off batter wouldn't get a position? Arraez gets a few more ab's and he just might win the silver slugger - and he is our utility player. I simply was attempting to give Rocco some benefit of the doubt here. He is tentative during games. Must be someone looking over his shoulder - or he thinks so.

    I think if Rocco was basing things strictly off numbers, he wouldn't be tentative. Robots are decisive, Rocco isn't. He's winging it even if he doesn't think he is.

    Agree that Burrows as a starter is a dumb call. Rogers is a lefty though and Colome had a sub 1.00 ERA last year, co-closers wasn't a dumb call to start the year. Arraez is also a one-trick pony slap hitter, he's not the best hitter. Even the much maligned Miguel Sano has almost caught up to him in OPS. These aren't black and white issues, which means there aren't black and white answers.

    But the decisions you don't like, who is making them? Are you unhappy with what Levine is doing? Or with what Falvey is doing. They need to be distinguished. This isn't some kind of collective automaton regardless of what people want to think. If SPECTRE has a hierarchy and delegated responsibilities, certainly the Twins do as well.

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    16 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

    Right, which is what Gleeman stated in the article I linked. Cruz was such a great signing (possibly best in team history) that it cancels out the rest of the bad signings. The bad signings did happen, and many were counted on to be impact players. 

    You simply elect to ignore hard fact.  The Twins FA signings are on par with all of the other teams.  It's much more telling of how ineffective free agency is on average.  Did they rely on free agency or did they hope like every other team to get better than average productivity from free agents.  What we should be asking is why so many people here go off the deep about spending when free agency is so ineffective, especially for teams outside the top revenue teams.

    Would they have been in better shape if drafting was better 5-10 years ago.  Of course!  This front office did not make those selections.  We should also ask why so many people want to trade away prospects if developing talent is so important to below average revenue teams. 

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    24 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

    I would add that they're also two of the most analytical front offices in baseball, whose operational models the Twins have clearly tried to mimic and whose talent the Twins have repeatedly plundered in trades. Which is an ironic element of some of the critiques I've seen.

    "These geeky over-analytic execs and coaches! Why can't they be more like the Rays?!" lol wut

    I know there are many who don't like the analytic approach, but I think many around here, if not most, appreciate the attempt at forward thinking.

    But it's not enough to have that approach, you still have to produce. That's why I keep asking for a distinction between job responsibilities. I like the theoretical game plan. Is it possible that Falvey has instituted a good framework and infrastructure while Thad Levine has botched the execution?

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    4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    In five years, we still don't have one pitcher, starter or reliever, we are confident in. While there weren't great free agents this year, their inability to trade for or sign guys to longer deals, meant they had to, again, get two new starting pitchers. That's not a sustainable model. 

    Next year is the year they are out of excuses. If there aren't multiple pitchers up from the system after six years......

    Also, their emphasis on bat first, mediocre or worse fielders in the draft? Not a fan at all. 

    This is where I'm at, although I'd say I'm a little less neutral than you are at the moment. I don't think it's "entitled," (not your characterization) to criticize the total lack of impact pitching over a 5 year span, especially since it was the calling card of this FO, or at least that's how it was spun when they were brought in. 

    I agree with @Vanimal46 though, ownership isn't exactly known for having a quick trigger, and whether or not we as fans are done with this FO next year, they aren't going anywhere. I think they bought themselves at least another 2 years, maybe (probably) more depending on how arms matriculate; rookie struggles aren't uncommon. I'm buckling in for a '22 season where we're sold hope and small positives are extrapolated in order to justify this season + the off season. I hope I'm wrong and we get the 2+ rotation arms you're calling for. 

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    5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

    You simply elect to ignore hard fact.  The Twins FA signings are on par with all of the other teams.  It's much more telling of how ineffective free agency is on average.  Did they rely on free agency or did they hope like every other team to get better than average productivity from free agents.  What we should be asking is why so many people here go off the deep about spending when free agency is so ineffective, especially for teams outside the top revenue teams.

    Would they have been in better shape if drafting was better 5-10 years ago.  Of course!  This front office did not make those selections.  We should also ask why so many people want to trade away prospects if developing talent is so important to below average revenue teams. 

    Not really, you’re using emotion and injecting things I have not said to make your case. Gleeman’s analysis is just that. Nothing more or less. That’s all I wrote. 

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    19 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

    Right, which is what Gleeman stated in the article I linked. Cruz was such a great signing (possibly best in team history) that it cancels out the rest of the bad signings. The bad signings did happen, and many were counted on to be impact players. 

    Should we also take out the best players other teams sign, and see how they look in FA? Of course bad things happened, but you can't just throw out all the good stuff and say "see, they are bad at this". that said, I'm a year from doing so.....as I'm not in love with a lot of what they've done. IMO, the big mistake was thinking they could keep signing 2 FA starters and half a bullpen every year, rather than trading for a guy under control or signing a FA for more than 1-2 years.

    I think people also forget that the minor league season was cancelled last year. Kind of hard to move a SP from A or even one who got to AA late in 19, to the majors this year, let alone at the start of this year......

    Which is my biggest issue with this season (now). They aren't promoting guys so that they can be in MN early next year, setting themselves up to have to acquire too much pitching again (which they'll hold onto because they are ok, rather than promoting guys that might be good or better).

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    6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

    I know there are many who don't like the analytic approach, but I think many around here, if not most, appreciate the attempt at forward thinking.

    But it's not enough to have that approach, you still have to produce. That's why I keep asking for a distinction between job responsibilities. I like the theoretical game plan. Is it possible that Falvey has instituted a good framework and infrastructure while Thad Levine has botched the execution?

    While it's a boogeyman term for some, analytics is essentially the systematic study and analysis of what happened to inform decisions. Which is why I feel good about this front office learning valuable lessons from this year. They will take a hard look at everything that went wrong and assess a path forward based on evidence rather than fanciful thinking (i.e., the plan after 2011's disaster). 

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