Cleaning Up the Twins’ 40-Man Roster Will Take Some Work

Linus · October 4, 2022

Regarding the title of this piece: cleaning up this 40 man will not be much work at all. DFA candidates all over the place.

Brett · October 4, 2022

In addition to SS and backup catcher, we need to think about a primary CF. Asking Buxton to play more than 60 games in the field seems like a reach. We have a few guys who “can” play CF, but do we have anyone who we would want to roll with for 100 games?

stringer bell · October 4, 2022

53 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I keep Fulmer and J. Lopez to fortify my BP with a couple vets who have upside (Jorge Lopez isn't going anywhere). I certainly protect Canterino. He's got tremendous upside and after all they've been through with him just protect him and let him rehab and hopefully see what you have with him eventually. Keep Urshela for Pete's Sake. He's been solid all year. We need a SS if Correa isn't back. We need catchers. We need a RH hitting OF'er. And we have Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Kepler. We don't need FOUR LH hitting OF'ers. One needs to be packaged in a trade, hopefully for pitching and/or a catcher.

There is a TON of dead weight just waiting to be cut loose. Wipe the board clean and start over.

Fulmer has had a decent year, but hasn't been anything special since his trade to Minnesota. The Twins don;t have much history of paying free agent relievers. I doubt they make a serious move for Fulmer unless it is a bargain. Lopez has been a disappointment, although I can see his stuff being very effective. Since he is under team control for next year, I think he comes back and is the principal setup guy, probably getting closing chances when Duran isn't available. Add Thielbar, Jax, Moran and a healthy Alcala and the bullpen is in much better shape at the start of 2023 than it was in 2022.

Whitey333 · October 4, 2022

A lot of dead weight is right. Many of those players IMO would not be on a 40 man roster in most other organizations. If this FO cannot look through that list and figure out which ones to get rid of they shouldn't be here. Many obvious choices of who should go.

Einheri · October 4, 2022

Will the Twins pick up Gio Urshela's 3rd Arbitration year? He's currently making $6.5M or so. As Correa will opt out and Lewis isn't around for awhile (hopefully will be back healthy and soon), Gio could fill in at Shortstop in a pinch. Do the Twins plan to more Miranda back to 3rd or what? Lot of questions and who knows how healthy Arraez and Polanco will be?

stringer bell · October 4, 2022

9 minutes ago, Einheri said:

Will the Twins pick up Gio Urshela's 3rd Arbitration year? He's currently making $6.5M or so. As Correa will opt out and Lewis isn't around for awhile (hopefully will be back healthy and soon), Gio could fill in at Shortstop in a pinch. Do the Twins plan to more Miranda back to 3rd or what? Lot of questions and who knows how healthy Arraez and Polanco will be?

I wonder if they don't go with Gio at shortstop next year until Lewis/Lee are ready. Gio played a lot of shortstop for the Evil Empire down the stretch last year and was slated to be their starting shortstop until the Twins traded for Urshela and gave them Kiner-Falefa. I really don't like the idea of weakening two spots in the infield defense (third and short) even temporarily, getting both Miranda and Urshela in the lineup is a good plan. That would mean either Arraez or Kirilloff plays first base.

Gio had a very good year and stayed on the field. He earned his pay raise and the free agent pickings at third base are pretty meager. The Twins should definitely bring him back for his last arbitration season.

Otaknam · October 4, 2022

22 hours ago, Kipp35 said:

I am sure they will put the emphasis on the wrong players, as they always do. And, will ensure they miss out on FA's due to ensuring they extend someone currently under contract to a ridiculous deal, while other clubs are signing pieces to make their clubs better. See last off-season's priorities; Buxton and Bundy before the lockout, while other clubs were making deals.

Pretty negative take. As a long time Twins fan if I felt that the off season moves would be pointless I’d turn my attention elsewhere instead of deciding to be frustrated.

Whitey50 · October 4, 2022

Twins should try and make a trade for Wilson Contreras from Cubs. Current OPS above 800. Catcher is teams weakest link.

Kipp35 · October 4, 2022

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

Pretty negative take. As a long time Twins fan if I felt that the off season moves would be pointless I’d turn my attention elsewhere instead of deciding to be frustrated.

As a longtime/lifetime fan, I have years of vested interest in this team. I get to be frustrated and demand better from the team I have poured my life and support ($$$) into. I am not a fair weather fan and don't jump off the wagon. Unfortunately, I have to bare the bad years to enjoy the good ones. If this team ever turns it around, too many people will jump on the wagon claiming they have been here all along.

Due to these facts, I get to be negative and demand better from this team.

old nurse · October 4, 2022

In addition to the other players mentioned Celestino, Hamilton and probably Stashak could all be DFA without losing them. 10 open spots on the roster is a lot. Wallner would be a 4th outfielder with Gordon and Arraez available. Kirilloff at 1b, They would then have to figure out shortstop and the annual disaster 7-8 starters as well as the annual bullpen issues.

Todd Nelson · October 4, 2022

If you were to keep one of those two veteran catchers...Which one would it be?Sanchez or Leon?

Blyleven2011 · October 4, 2022

It's called work for a reason , it's a difficult position but it should be an easy decision on what players are here to stay and who should be left off the 40 man roster ...

Do I have faith in the FO and Rocco to make those right decisions , NO ...

As always we will like what the FO does or not like what the FO does ...

I sure hope its not a long frustrating off season ....

ashbury · October 4, 2022

4 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Since the Twins went to the trouble of keeping these two on the 40 man all year, I don't see us giving up on them over the winter.

The investment of time or resources should not play into the decision. That's called a sunk cost.

The same potential that caused them to be protected might carry over this time too, though.

Mike Sixel · October 4, 2022

24 minutes ago, Whitey50 said:

Twins should try and make a trade for Wilson Contreras from Cubs. Current OPS above 800. Catcher is teams weakest link.

He's a free agent....

FlyingFinn · October 4, 2022

8 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The investment of time or resources should not play into the decision. That's called a sunk cost.

True, but that evaluation could have been done in August or September. From now until March, Enlow and Balazovic will do nothing to change their rating.

TwinsAce · October 4, 2022

20 Pitchers to keep: Gray, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, Winder, Mahle, Paddack, Duran, Alcala, Lopez, Thielbar, Jax, Moran, Varland, Woods Richardson, Henriquez, Sands, Enlow, Balazovic, Pagan.
13 Position Players to keep: Jeffers, Miranda, Polanco, Lewis, Gordon, Urshela, Arraez, Kirilloff, Buxton, Celestino, Larnach, Wallner, Kepler.

Tougher Arbitration decisions / Prospects: Garlick, Megill, Romero, Hamilton, Contreras, Palacios, Coulombe, Stashak, Smeltzer. I'd hope for 3-5 of these to be minor league contracts with spring training invites and a chance to take the 60 day IL spots. Ideally 0 roster spots until March.

FA returns? Correa and Fulmer or similar FA spots. Also need 1 SP spot and ideally another BP spot eventually.

3 Prospects to add: Eduard Julien, Matt Canterino, Yunior Severino.

Prospects to consider: Misael Urbina?, DaShawn Keirsey Jr?, Austin Schulfer?, Evan Sisk?, Will Holland?, Cody Laweryson?, Chris Williams, Roy Morales, Andrew Bechtold, Zach Neff, Alex Phillips, Jair Camargo, Andrew Cabezas, Alex Isola, Anthony Prato, Brent Headrick, Michael Helman, Wander Javier, etc.

So IMO, with all of the above, I'd expect 33 spots taken before considering FAs / Prospects. I see a minimum of 3 prospects being added with potentially another 2-3 from the prospects to consider list (Urbina, pitching? catching?). If more than 4 are added, then probably a few of the italics players were gone. If some of those prospects to consider are minor league FAs, hopefully an invite to spring training might keep them around.

Ideally Kepler and Pagan are traded before December or January. Add in the 60 day IL guys that will be off the 40 in the spring and you have a bit more wiggle room for late signings (bullpen, backup C, backup SS?, RH OF?, Spring Training invites, etc?)
It will be interesting to see how many players are lost to Rule 5. 1? 2? It also seems rare the Twins actually add 4 or more prospects...so could it just be Julien and Canterino?

Mike Sixel · October 4, 2022

I'll be SHOCKED if they protect Smeltzer. Flabbergasted even. But then, Pagan is on this roster, after THREE YEARS OF BEING AWFUL, so, um, who knows.

DJL44 · October 4, 2022

5 hours ago, Whitey50 said:

Twins should try and make a trade for Wilson Contreras from Cubs. Current OPS above 800. Catcher is teams weakest link.

He's a free agent. If they don't sign Correa they should absolutely try to sign Contreras.

Richie the Rally Goat · October 5, 2022

On 10/3/2022 at 12:28 PM, FlyingFinn said:

Caleb Hamilton and Stashak can be DFA'd. No need to add Urbina. Keep Megill. I'm thinking maybe we should add Camargo. If he's good defensively, I might do that.

You have to put Paddock on the 40 man but exactly when can you move him back to the 60 day IL?

60 day IL is Pitchers and Catchers report to Spring Training through World Series. Players cannot be added to the 60 day after the conclusion of the regular season.

Paddack has to be added to the 40 man shortly after the conclusion of the WS. Historically that’s around Nov 1, but with the new format looking to be a bit later.

Rosterman · October 5, 2022

I'm starting to wonder WHY we would need more than one of Kepler, Celestino, Wallner, Garlick, Kirilloff, Larnach. I'm not seeing anything outstanding there. Potential in Kiriloff if you believe his wrist is healed. Celestino could be the new Cave for a couple of seasons, the backup you need for Buxton, Will Wallner get better? Otherwise, nah, bah, humbug!

DJL44 · October 5, 2022

29 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

I'm starting to wonder WHY we would need more than one of Kepler, Celestino, Wallner, Garlick, Kirilloff, Larnach. I'm not seeing anything outstanding there. Potential in Kiriloff if you believe his wrist is healed. Celestino could be the new Cave for a couple of seasons, the backup you need for Buxton, Will Wallner get better? Otherwise, nah, bah, humbug!

Most teams want 5 outfielders on the roster. If you only have one a lot of balls fall in for hits.

Mike Sixel · October 5, 2022

57 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

I'm starting to wonder WHY we would need more than one of Kepler, Celestino, Wallner, Garlick, Kirilloff, Larnach. I'm not seeing anything outstanding there. Potential in Kiriloff if you believe his wrist is healed. Celestino could be the new Cave for a couple of seasons, the backup you need for Buxton, Will Wallner get better? Otherwise, nah, bah, humbug!

Can't tell if serious

The Mad King · October 5, 2022

Is there a thread somewhere that lists all the players contact status (length) ?

I've been looking forward to an article like this since July. I always keep an eye on the long-term outlook, as though I owned the team?

Mike Sixel · October 5, 2022

14 minutes ago, The Mad King said:

Is there a thread somewhere that lists all the players contact status (length) ?

I've been looking forward to an article like this since July. I always keep an eye on the long-term outlook, as though I owned the team?

Fangraphs roster resource is what you need.

RpR · October 5, 2022

2 hours ago, The Mad King said:

Is there a thread somewhere that lists all the players contact status (length) ?

I've been looking forward to an article like this since July. I always keep an eye on the long-term outlook, as though I owned the team?

Baseball Ref. has the information also.

PatPfund · October 7, 2022

The OP's list is as good as any; tough to get fired up about the 40 man crunch. We'll let go a lot of players nobody else is interested in (especially DFAs with large contracts). We'll expose a few (maybe a few) that might get picked up. And we'll survive the loss.

(This just in; the Twins had a sub-.500 season, several players being amped about were the subs, and most teams have more prospects to be taken than we do. Trevor Megill for example sure looks replacement level to me; I wouldn't keep a roster spot for him. Ditto for Garlick. We probably can't DFA Celestino for real, but I'd love if his space cadet act played elsewhere.)

My shopping list would be a starting catcher (Jeffers can be the backup until he earns a platoon split) like Wilson Contreras. A #1 starting pitcher (like Rodon). A starting OF; possibly in trade, or maybe a Benintendi. A stopgap SS like Elvis Andrus. If Alcala's recovery is on track, and if we sign a #1 SP (which would push at least one good arm into the 'pen), I wouldn't amp heavily about the bullpen. Wouldn't hurt to sign a Fulmer type (maybe Fulmer?) and I hear Taylor Rogers might be available. But health and offense/defense is probably more important for a change than pitching.

Mike Sixel · October 7, 2022

People do realize Rodon was hurt the two years before this? The exact kind of guy people rip the FO for acquiring?

ashbury · October 7, 2022

10 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

People do realize Rodon was hurt the two years before this? The exact kind of guy people rip the FO for acquiring?

You distilled the argument that keeps popping up in rebuttals to perhaps its purest form, so I'm not really singling you out in this reply, just taking this as the jumping off point.

I've heard that a weather prediction formula with high degree of accuracy in certain parts of the country is this: whatever the weather was yesterday, predict the same for today. If it was sunny, 80% chance it'll be sunny today. Did it rain yesterday? Pretty good chance you'll get some of that today too.

But of course there are better weather prediction tools than that. The simple one is often good enough for me, but I expect more from the pros.

When I heard about the trade for Paddack, I'm pretty sure I was on the fence, saying mainly "I hope they checked his medicals thoroughly." But in the back of my mind was also, "I hope their analytics say he's a good risk." Because there was plenty of public knowledge to indicate significant chance of downtime for this pitcher. Mahle? Lather, rinse, repeat.

When people learn of baseball analytics it's usually in terms of stats. "So and So OPS'ed .850 last season, and we forecast .875 this coming year." But analytics need not be numerical, at least not to any decimal precision. It can be probabilistic. It can be as simple as sorting players into buckets. Red, Yellow, Green. High risk, medium risk, low risk. With pitching injuries, better analytics than I'm capable of might estimate a 20% risk for missing some threshold number of starts for pitcher A, and 70% risk of that same threshold for pitcher B. So, green and red for those two, respectively. If pitcher A gets a rotator cuff injury in July, does that mean the analytics were wrong? Not if, say, the 4 others in that green bucket didn't get injured.

Garret Cole started 30 games last year. 33 this year. Into the green bucket for next year he goes, using my dumdum form of analytics. I'd be shocked if teams didn't have far better analytics than that, based not solely on past performance and injury history but also body type, pitching style and mix of pitches, and any number of other things.

That's what I want from the Twins. Not a promise never to acquire a pitcher with a checkered past. But to have injury analytics that prove to be sound. That can come across like second guessing... except no, we're seeing the red flags and waving them in advance, and with too much regularity the results turn out bad.

Rodon started 24 games last year but 31 this year? Green bucket for me. But I'm not the one being paid for my dumdum analytics.

Mike Sixel · October 7, 2022

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

You distilled the argument that keeps popping up in rebuttals to perhaps its purest form, so I'm not really singling you out in this reply, just taking this as the jumping off point.

I've heard that a weather prediction formula with high degree of accuracy in certain parts of the country is this: whatever the weather was yesterday, predict the same for today. If it was sunny, 80% chance it'll be sunny today. Did it rain yesterday? Pretty good chance you'll get some of that today too.

But of course there are better weather prediction tools than that. The simple one is often good enough for me, but I expect more from the pros.

When I heard about the trade for Paddack, I'm pretty sure I was on the fence, saying mainly "I hope they checked his medicals thoroughly." But in the back of my mind was also, "I hope their analytics say he's a good risk." Because there was plenty of public knowledge to indicate significant chance of downtime for this pitcher. Mahle? Lather, rinse, repeat.

When people learn of baseball analytics it's usually in terms of stats. "So and So OPS'ed .850 last season, and we forecast .875 this coming year." But analytics need not be numerical. It can be as simple as sorting players into buckets. Red, Yellow, Green. High risk, medium risk, low risk. With pitching injuries, better analytics than I'm capable of might estimate a 20% risk for missing some threshold number of starts for pitcher A, and 70% risk of that same threshold for pitcher B. So, green and red for those two, respectively. If pitcher A gets a rotator cuff injury in July, does that mean the analytics were wrong? Not if, say, the 4 others in that green bucket didn't get injured.

Garret Cole started 30 games last year. 33 this year. Into the green bucket for next year he goes, using my dumdum form of analytics. I'd be shocked if teams didn't have far better analytics than that, based not solely on past performance and injury history but also body type, pitching style and mix of pitches, and any number of other things.

That's what I want from the Twins. Not a promise never to acquire a pitcher with a checkered past. But to have injury analytics that prove to be sound. That can come across like second guessing... except no, we're seeing the red flags and waving them in advance, and with too much regularity the results turn out bad.

Rodon started 24 games last year but 31 this year? Green bucket for me. But I'm not the one being paid for my dumdum analytics.

Injuries are tough....

I'm good with them bringing him in, but it is not without risk..... My post was really about the board, not the pitcher.....

Sign In

Cleaning Up the Twins’ 40-Man Roster Will Take Some Work

Twins Video

Community Blogs

Forum Topics

Twins Top Prospects

The Players Project

User Feedback

Recommended Comments

Featured Comments

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Join the conversation