Chris Paddack Agrees to Contract Extension with the Minnesota Twins

Wow If Paddack can return to form that is a huge get for the Twins.  With 3 starters potentially gone after this year having Paddack for two more years should really help.  If he doesn't return to form then that would be a bummer.  Still I like this risk for the Twins.  He was pitching really well before he went down and I think the Twins can help him regain his market value.  Really need Varland and SWR to work out as the pipeline is getting thin on starting pitching,  Paddack could help bridge the gap.

I guess we'll get to see if trading for him was a good move. I hope so. The 2nd TJ is a big concern, but there's a lot of potential there. 

TD seems to have forgotten about him completely. Lots of articles about pitching going forward have not even mentioned his name.

I had to go back to the Twins' site to make sure he was still on the roster. But you are totally accurate that he is a potential boost for the next two years, when we will seemingly lack veteran starters.

In 2019, two of the young arms I was excited about were Chris Paddack and Sandy Alcantara. Each was proving difficult for opposing batters. Alcantara has blossomed while Paddack had his second major surgery. The road back is really rough for pitchers who need multiple arm resets. Paddack has come into fantastic financial luck with this contract. Pitchers love to pitch though and i hope he can joyfully reach every incentive on a healthy return to the mound.

1 hour ago, PDX Twin said:

TD seems to have forgotten about him completely. Lots of articles about pitching going forward have not even mentioned his name.

I had to go back to the Twins' site to make sure he was still on the roster. But you are totally accurate that he is a potential boost for the next two years, when we will seemingly lack veteran starters.

This reminded me of Randy Dobnak, who also has been seemingly forgotten in these parts. MLB.com tells me, 

"January 13, 2023

Minnesota Twins invited non-roster RHP Randy Dobnak to spring training."

Seems like a low-risk way of potentially adding a solid starter....so, why not?

First time I saw Paddack, I thought the Padres had lucked into a major ace, almost a right-handed Clayton Kershaw. Apparently I saw him at his early peak. Now he's just another TJ rebuild project. Can he learn to get guys out without shredding that tendon a third time? Let's hope he follows the instructions of his doctors and coaches. Paddack had dominant stuff for a very short time. Now, he's going to have to learn the art of being a pitcher. 

I really like this deal. With a guy like Adam Frazier getting $8 million in free agency extending a guy on a 3-year/$12.5m deal is a very good move. Hopefully they can extend more players, specially core players.

Buy low on talent with questions.  This is really the only way a team like the Twins compete, right? Take the risk; good deal.

I really like this move.  Lot of upside while being a real gamble on health, but at a significantly reduced cost.   Continues the trend of paying less for upside by assuming risk of getting nothing.

This team in the next couple years is going to be a real dice roll, but if they hit on a couple in the same year it could look really good.  Previously they were capped at first round exit because they didn't/ couldn't sign the big contracts, now they have the potential to make real noise if things break right, but could also completely fall apart to injury.

Missing addition is an ace upside starter that has massive question marks lol.

Nice upside play for the Twins and Paddack gets some time to iron things out before he hits free agency. Hopefully it works out for him and the Twins. 

Knock on wood but it should be a longtime before the Twins need to resort to another Matt Shoemaker / JA Happ type of signing.  Yes, Mahle/Gray/Maeda will be free agents next year.   However, Ryan/Paddack/Ober/SWR and Varland give us 5 very low cost starters.  They will have plenty of money to extend Mahle or sign someone at least as good.  That gives us 6 deep, maybe 7 if Dobnak is serviceable and by then one of two of Canterino/Festa/Raya/Prielipp should be ready especially later in the 2024 season if (when) we have injuries..

6 hours ago, PseudoSABR said:

Buy low on talent with questions.  This is really the only way a team like the Twins compete, right? Take the risk; good deal.

Technically, another way to compete would be to spend like the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers. While the Twins will always have a disadvantage being located in an undesirable market, they can spend as much $$$ as any other team if they league, if they wanted. So could the Pirates and Royals for that matter. 

The twins have become the Red Cross of injuries. I would love it someday to have a healthy arm come in and just pitch

I like this. Hoping they start taking a chance on good young players rather than older reclamation projects!

1 hour ago, bighat said:

Technically, another way to compete would be to spend like the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers. While the Twins will always have a disadvantage being located in an undesirable market, they can spend as much $$$ as any other team if they league, if they wanted. So could the Pirates and Royals for that matter. 

How does that work? Would love to hear how a team with $270M in revenue can spend as much as a team with $600M+ in revenue.  Please enlighten us?

I think this is a smart move. Even with the injuries, this is still likely a bit below market rate on arbitration, and assuming Paddack comes back reasonably well off the TJ it's well below market for the free agency year. A good compromise for the injury rehab that cost him most of last season and likely most if not all of this year.

Paddack has talent and it's worth the gamble, especially at this money. He could be a very good fit next season as a rotation piece, and might be an option late this season, depending on how his rehab goes and what the Twins need for the rotation based on other pitcher's success or health.

Good move for both parties: Paddack gets insurance/guarantees after a significant injury, the Twins get a discount for paying his rehab. They were always going to pay the arbitration number this year anyways.

Agree this is a shrewd move.  Twins F.O. is riding the momentum of the Vazquez and Correa signings and this is a high upside gamble.  You can NEVER have too many talented arms and this gives the Twins one more option for three more years.  I don't think ALL of Mahle, Gray and Maeda will be gone, but I don't think all three will still be here either.   I still expect a trade for a SP pitcher or two is in the works for 2023.

According to MLB trade rumors Paddack gets 2.5M in 2023, 2.5M in 2024 and 7.5M in 2025. Wouldn't it be wonderful if the FO would throw money at players that can actually play and weren't huge injury risks with major question marks if they'll ever be worth the money they give them. Sure the cost is minimal until you start adding all of the wasted money they spend making these types of deals, then it could have gotten them a decent healthy player or two.

I like this deal as a low risk/high reward move,  and now I would like the Twins to work out an extension for either Gray or Mahle, or both.  Tack on 2-3 years on their contracts and it would look to me that the Twins are looking to win over the long haul.

18 minutes ago, rv78 said:

According to MLB trade rumors Paddack gets 2.5M in 2023, 2.5M in 2024 and 7.5M in 2025. Wouldn't it be wonderful if the FO would throw money at players that can actually play and weren't huge injury risks with major question marks if they'll ever be worth the money they give them. Sure the cost is minimal until you start adding all of the wasted money they spend making these types of deals, then it could have gotten them a decent healthy player or two.

It takes 2 to tango. The FO has went hard after SPs the past 3 years and were second fiddle every time

49 minutes ago, rv78 said:

According to MLB trade rumors Paddack gets 2.5M in 2023, 2.5M in 2024 and 7.5M in 2025. Wouldn't it be wonderful if the FO would throw money at players that can actually play and weren't huge injury risks with major question marks if they'll ever be worth the money they give them. Sure the cost is minimal until you start adding all of the wasted money they spend making these types of deals, then it could have gotten them a decent healthy player or two.

I think you forget how many upper level players are signed or traded for that produce nothing.  We have a couple on our own roster.  Remember when people were really upset we did not get Bumgardner.   Patrick Corbin is a bust.  Chris Sale has not produced much since being extended.  Johnny Cueto did very little 5 of his 6 year contract.  Kluber got injured when  when he went to Texas.  He produced nothing and they gave up Clause in that trade.  Clevinger went to SanDiego.  Same story and they gave up Quantrill, Naylor and Miller for Clevinger.  Kuechel was a bust.  David Price was not much either.  There are plenty of other examples.  Davis / Pujlos / Elsbury, etc.

This type of deal is exactly how a team with $300M in revenue competes with teams generating 50 to 100% more revenue.  Obviously, if you have an extra $150M on payroll, you don't need to make these deals but we are not in that boat.

49 minutes ago, Heiny said:

I like this deal as a low risk/high reward move,  and now I would like the Twins to work out an extension for either Gray or Mahle, or both.  Tack on 2-3 years on their contracts and it would look to me that the Twins are looking to win over the long haul.

I agree I would like to extend either Mahle or Gray. With Mahle the shoulder is a concern. You may want to wait to offer him a deal, but then again a deal now fits this FO's MO with them looking for that discount.