Central Intelligence: Cleveland Indians

2016 At A Glance

Record: 94-67

Runs Scored: 777

Runs Allowed: 676

Pythag W/L: 91-70

Pitching WAR Leader: Corey Kluber

Hitting WAR Leader: Francisco Lindor

Season Recap

When previewing Cleveland before the season, here was my summation:

Cleveland has a wide range of possible outcomes for the 2016 season. With their rotation setup, they can't be discounted as legitimate World Series contenders, but with an offense that wasn't good last year and displays no obvious avenues for significant improvement, they may not score enough to finally get over that hump.

As it turned out, the offense improved by more than 100 runs and got them over the hump. Free agent signing Mike Napoli played a big part with his 34 homers and 101 RBI. He anchored a tremendously productive infield that also featured Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez. Tyler Naquin's out-of-nowhere Herculean rookie effort led the way in the outfield while Carlos Santana enjoyed a career year at the plate as DH.

The Indians trudged through a slowish start, which included series losses to the Twins in April and May, but hit their stride in June and never looked back. Over the final four months Cleveland went 68-43, and then won eight of its first nine postseason games before being thwarted by a Cubs comeback.

This tremendous run was driven by outstanding starting pitching – led by the elite trio of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar – and solid production throughout the lineup, as well as a weaponized bullpen bolstered by the addition of Andrew Miller in July.

Why They'll Be Better

One of the most amazing parts of Cleveland's 2016 run is that it occurred with virtually no contribution from arguably the club's best position player. Over the previous two seasons, Michael Brantley had batted .319 with an .876 OPS to go along with 35 homers and 90 doubles, twice garnering MVP consideration. But his recovery from shoulder surgery was fraught with setbacks, limiting him to 43 plate appearances last year.

He underwent another operation on the same shoulder after the season and is currently easing his way into spring activities. There's no assurance Brantley is going to come back anywhere close to his previous form, but if he does, the Indians are adding a huge impact bat. And he won't be the only one.

With Napoli departing via free agency, Cleveland actually managed to upgrade by signing of Edwin Encarnacion. His numbers on average over the past five years have been better than the ones that made Napoli the lineup's best run producer.

There's room for regression with a few players (especially Naquin), but the Indians have a very realistic chance to improve again offensively after scoring the league's second-most runs in 2016. Meanwhile, a pitching staff that allowed the second-fewest brings back every key member.

Kluber, Carrasco and Salazar will be back at the top of the rotation. Trevor Bauer, still only 26, is a breakout candidate. Boone Logan joins the bullpen as a situational weapon to deploy ahead of Miller and Cody Allen.

One of Derek Falvey's biggest early difficulties while running the Twins will be dealing with the juggernaut he helped build in Cleveland. This is a well-rounded squad that is going to be tough to take a series from.

Why They'll Be Worse

The "gotta stay healthy" stipulation applies to any team, but Cleveland has more prominent concerns than most in this regard. Brantley is of course a wild card at this point. Salazar dealt with a late-season flexor strain and missed the playoffs. Kluber piled up 250 total innings while going max-effort into November.

The farm system is solid but most of their top prospects – including catcher Francisco Mejia, who they could really use – are still a ways off. A few major injuries could at least make things interesting, but I think it would take a disastrous turn of events for the Indians to lose their standing as clear favorites in the division and in the league.

Three Key Storylines

1. Can Trevor Bauer throw enough strikes to give the rotation a fourth dominator?

2. Will Michael Brantley be able to get past his nightmarish shoulder woes?

3. Can Andrew Miller repeat what he did last year after throwing nearly 100 relief innings?