Center Of Attention

 Using offensive as a criteria in that spot, at this time is not addressing the problems that this roster bring to the field.

Especially if we're using offensive criteria based on such small sample sizes as Hicks, Santana and Escobar have.  Santana had a BABIP over .400 last which is amazingly high and way above league average.  That is bound to come back down to Earth along with his BA. 

So yeah, we should be looking at who the best defensive CF is and he should get the job, especially with the guys we had standing in the corners.

Especially if we're using offensive criteria based on such small sample sizes as Hicks, Santana and Escobar have.  Santana had a BABIP over .400 last which is amazingly high and way above league average.  That is bound to come back down to Earth along with his BA. 

 

So yeah, we should be looking at who the best defensive CF is and he should get the job, especially with the guys we had standing in the corners.

Agreed. Bring on Buxton. Pretty sure he is better in center defensively than Hicks or Santana. I bet he can bat .215 or better to!! LOL......kidding.

 

Not really trying to make a point here, just something I find interesting when a guy comes up to the majors for the first time, and they don't always show the competency you read about.

I think we sometimes forget the human aspect of this.  I think for most players it just takes time to get used to the new environment.  Takes time to get the 'awe' sensation to go away. You know, the awe of making it to The Show finally. Takes time to get the jitters out. Takes time to adjust to the skill level of the rest of the players, etc, etc.

I am much more surprised when a rookie comes in and lives up the hype right away in all aspects of the game.

What I'm getting at with the stadiums, is in the Minors, there is very rarely (if ever) that large 2nd or 3rd deck of stands above the lower-level, whereas they exist in every stadium in the majors. I think it takes some time to adjust to tracking a ball against the stands and the fans in the seats as compared to open skies like in the minors.

Agreed.  To some extent, only time and consistent play at the ML level will help.  But I have to wonder if this might be where Hunter can be of help to all of the young outfielders.  He'll be out in the same sun and wind and should be able to help them make in-game adjustments.

Any post that has a David Tennant gif almost assuredly deserves a 'like' :-)

I have a hard time ignoring everything but his OBP. That seems like a bad way to build a team. He can't hit MLB pitching. He barely hit minor league pitching. 

 

I think Hicks should be in AAA.

 

I think they will start him in CF in MN.

I value OBP a great deal and remind folks that Hicks was better than Revere in this category but lets break it down even further.   The .341 OBP is made up of .410 from the right side and .302 from the left side.    This screams platoon so the idea of plan B to be sending down Hicks and platooning Schaefer with some one else makes no sense to me whatsoever.    My guess is that if he starts the season in center batting lefty will be his downfall.   If he starts in AAA he will probably either not earn promotion because of his batting lefty or eventually he will earn the promotion with a hot bat for a month and then fail in the Bigs because of his left side batting. Then everyone gives up on him  which leads to losing what is likely his true value which is platooning against lefties batting righty.    IMO if they send him down they should ORDER him to bat right handed all the time which is what they should have done in the first place     This is his best chance at success as a full time starter but I get that it might be hard to make that adjustment.   This is why the best option, and its actually a very good option is to platoon Schaeffer and Hicks.  This is even a very viable and valuable option for left field for when Buxton comes up and Hunter is gone in case Rosario doesn't make good.    The non starter has utility as late inning defensive replacement for Arcia.   

Also, on the "leave Arcia in RF, put Torii in LF" argument.

 

I don't think it's about their lack of faith in Arcia improving in RF, but more on what they think each brings to the table in the OF

 

To me, you can classify OF defenders in two categories, fundamentally:

 

1. Those with good instincts who can put there head down and run to a spot. And,

2. Those who have to constantly track the ball with their eyes.

 

Based on Torii's gold glove CF defense in his early career, I'd say he's in category #1, even though he's lost that range with age. Also with that CF defense, comes the experience of moving in both directions to track down fly balls.

 

There's no doubt that Arcia is in category #2, and isn't that great with his limited speed and instincts to begin with.

 

Now, drawing from personal experience, as a right-handed player (glove on my left hand), even though I played both corner OF spots in my playing days, I always preferred being in left field because I was category #2, and it was easier for me to track balls moving to my glove side, toward the gap where most balls are hit.

 

Maybe that's what they see happening with Arcia, that he'll do better because he'll be chasing more balls in that direction than he would in RF, while Hunter shouldn't have any issues with that, no matter which corner he plays.

 

As a sidenote to this thought as well, Hicks often times got questioned for his effort running down fly balls because it seemed like he would 'jog' after them.

 

Well, if he's in category #2 above (which I think he is more than #1), I can also say that when you do this, the natural thing your body/mind does is equalize your route and speed, so that your glove gets to the ball is going at the exact point you will catch it. Granted, you don't want to do this all the time, such as when you need to set up to make a throw, but I never thought it was from a lack of effort from Hicks.

Even tho I was/am one of those who think Arcia should have been left in right, I agree that LF is easier to play. (park abnormalities taken into consideration). But that fact then begs the question. Why wasn't he in LF to start with. Plus I still think he is destined for RF, possibly because of his arm?

A point to be considered during all of this speculation. And it's a point the Twins internally must have considered: What is our goal for the season?? Not what is our stated goal to the unwashed masses who buy tickets, but what are we truly trying to accomplish. Get an honest answer to that question, and the discussion of who plays where will coalesce. It will also indicate the degree of rationality in the FO!

I've brought up the fact that Kepler's AFL OPS was better than Rosario's several times. I think Rosario is closer to big league ready than Kepler. Both have plenty to prove yet before they really are ready. 

 

And yes, we want Rosario to be better than he was last year. He's not going to walk, so he'll have to hit for average. I think he's natural-enough of a hitter to be able to do that. I'll give him some benefit of the doubt for the missed time and some of the stuff that he was doing to himself. 2015 can be a do-over, at least for me, and I think he can move up and succeed. 

 

Kepler's problems have been injury-related. He also was a lot more raw when he signed, so patience was more important with him. I definitely believe in his bat. He can (and has) played centerfield, but I don't think he'd cover nearly the ground that Rosario could. 

That they both have a lot to prove is my point. I just don't think Rosario's AFL stint this year was that impressive (Championship game aside...). I think he had only the 6th or 7th highest OPS on the team, so Kepler's one of a handful who had a better month. League-wide, he was squarely in the middle.

I want Rosario to step up (and long-term, I'm still a believer), but as you state - he has a ways to go. I'm just not able to point to the Fall League as a game-changer, even if it was an improvement over his season.

Going off the reservation here.

What SHOULD they do? They should go out NOW, while there is still time, and make a move for a defensive CF who won't spike himself offensive...(does that analogy EVER grow old?)...and improve the OF defense...which will improve the pitching staff...which will improve THE TEAM.

Santana can still continue to work at CF and make an appearance here and there. That allows for rest and matchup play. Escobar can get 500AB's as the part time SS as well as primary fill in 2B and 3B. Hicks gets to play at AAA for something more than a month to regain confidence, work on his hitting and approach, and learn to drive the ball again. (the video Parker showed recently showed wide open hips that would have a hard time getting the ball out of the damned infield!)

Schafer gets his shot to prove that at long last, ability met maturity and opportunity and his finish for the Twins last season wasn't an illusion. Or at least...only a puff of smoke and one slightly cracked mirror. He can be a 4th OF and possibly quasi-platoon CF in certain situations.

I am not a Hicks hater or basher. Far from it if you've followed my posts in the past. But "3rd time just must be the charm" doesn't cut it! Rosario and Buxton aren't ready yet. Yet. What is so wrong about penciling Hicks in to AAA to work on his game, and, oh, I don't know, earn and prove his way in to a ML job this time?

What I'm AFRAID they WILL DO:

Give Hicks the job and hope. Robinson will be a fall back option if anyone gets hurt or performs like white-can Butera when he should be a 6th OF option. Or march Santana back out there on a 60/40 or 70/30 CF/SS split like last season. And based on last season, that would probably be the better option.

Well Maybe Shaffer found some undetectable HGH for this season and they can start him in Center and use Hicks as the 4th OF'er.  Giving Shaffer a couple of nights off in Center and Hunter a few nights off in Right and Arcia a night or two in Left.  Then if Hicks proves he can hit then maybe slowly but surely he steps in and takes over in Center more full time.  Putting HIcks back down in the minors is a waste of time as those spots need to be used by the guys who have potential still.  Hicks would be just blocking someone else's progression.  I don't think Buxton is ready yet. I think Buxton will need a full season at AA or AAA and then be the Twins successor for 2016.  I think they should use Shaffer as the primary about 65 - 70 percent of the starts in April and use Hicks all over the place to get some at bats.  Then if Hicks performs decently start to dwindle Shaffers at bats down and start increasing Hicks.  If both hit .180 up till June then put Santana back out there for the rest of the season Until Buxton is ready in 2016, hopefully

Hicks has shown himself to be quite competent as a right handed batter against lefties.   He has shown very little competence facing right handed pitching.    Platoon and utility has value and odds are that is how he will contribute if he is to stay in the league.   I would love if he proved me wrong but batting .275 in AAA for a month or two from the left side is not going to prove anything in terms of his ability to handle big league pitching from that side.   Of course first he has to bat .275 from the left side in AAA which is a coin flip.  Like I said, I hope he proves me wrong.     I still think, without being able to prove, that if he had stuck batting righty from the get go we would not be having this discussion and would have been fine with him as full time center fielder til Buxton arrives.

Schafer was not viewed as a good defensive centerfielder in Atlanta or Houston. Those were reports we saw as he came to Minnesota. I am not sure what happened in two months that he is now viewed as a good defensive CF. Perhaps it is in comparison to the guys the Twins have played in the outfield the last two years.

If he was a good defensive CF, he doesn't get DFA'd twice. He is DFA'd because he can't hit well enough to play a corner and his defense in CF isn't good enough to maintain a fourth OF job.

He helps a team with his base running and late inning defensive sub on a corner. That fifth OF role worked when teams carried 10-11 pitchers.

It will be an encouraging sign when the Twins have enough talent to force his third DFA. Meanwhile he is good enough to make the roster and be in the starting line up conversation for a bad team.

I keep reading about Rosario's amazing AFL stint. Interestingly, we never hear that Max Kepler's OPS with Salt River was 50 points higher. So if Rosario was that amazing, then Kepler must be superlative.

 

Or maybe we just want Rosario to be better than he really was last year?

Or maybe we realize that Kepler's probably never going to be a centerfielder and thus is not relevant to the current discussion of the 2015 season.

I'm going to throw my two cents in.  I'd like to see Hicks play 3/4 of the time, spelling him against certain RHP with Schaefer.  I want to find out if Hicks can be a serviceable player for the Twins over the next 3-4 years.  I know it's not the true platoon, but Hicks should not play on the short end of the platoon.  If he is in MLB he needs to be playing the majority of the time.  Having Schaefer face the tougher RHP could afford Hicks some time to build some confidence.  I could see the platoon giving us decent defense and a .650 OPS out of the #9 spot in the order.  Without a trade, I think this gives us the best defensive alignment as well. 

I see many clamoring for Escobar over Hicks based on last year's performance.  It's hard to disagree strictly based on performance, but let me throw this at you:

Escobar

2012   Age 22   146 PA   .214  .278  .260  .537

2013   Age 23   179 PA   .236  .282  .345  .628

Hicks

2013   Age 22   313 PA   .192  .259  .338  .597

2014   Age 23   225 PA   .215  .341  .274  .615

What's to say that Hicks can't do the same thing Escobar did last season?  I would argue that minor league stats suggest that Hicks stands a better chance than Escobar.