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I doubt anyone needs a recap at this point, but to quickly summarize: Nearly a month ago, Carlos Correa reached agreement with San Francisco on a historic 13-year, $350 million contract that would have made him one of the highest-paid players ever. It was the culmination of a lengthy gambit by Correa and Scott Boras, which included signing a short-term deal with the Twins last offseason and waiting out the shortstop market this year.
Or so it seemed. Just ahead of Correa's deal with the Giants being made official, San Francisco balked at something in his physical, leaving the deal in doubt. The issue at hand, evidently, was an old ankle injury from 2014 that had required insertion of a metal plate in his lower leg.
Wasting no time, Boras quickly pivoted and got in touch with Mets owner Steve Cohen, swinging a late-night agreement for 12 years and $315 million less than 24 hours after the Giants deal fell through.
That the agent was so eager to strike another agreement – for a whopping 10% less than San Fran's original offer – was somewhat alarming. More alarming was what came next: in spite of Cohen's impulsive and free-spending ways, and in spite of Correa's flagged ankle being a known factor, the Mets still ran into significant reservations upon their own medical inspection.
The Mets and Correa spent nearly three weeks haggling over details and protective language in the contract. In the end, they could not reach an accord.
And so along came the Twins, who weren't quite willing to stick with their original offer of 10 years and $285 million in light of all the new information, but won the day with a reduced six-year, $200 million guarantee featuring vesting options that can push the total value to $270. The Mets, evidently, offered $42 million less in guarantees and only WITH the caveat that Correa pass new physicals annually.
The Twins outbid the Mets considerably, making it a fairly easy decision for Correa. Yes, the Mets whose ultra-rich owner was clearly adamant about acquiring the star shortstop and has shown an appetite for risk. They couldn't stomach it.
The Twins, in this case, had greater appetite than the Mets for assuming financial risk in order to acquire proven starpower. It feels weird to type that sentence but it's true. Granted, Minnesota's final framework with Correa does add some new protections compared to the first offer, with four fewer guaranteed years. The shortstop will need to prove he can stay healthy if he wants to be making the big bucks into his late 30s, and it seems that was going to be the case wherever he signed.
But why? Why was Correa such a special case at a time where decade-long contracts are being handed out by MLB teams with seemingly reckless abandon? It comes back to that ankle, which is now a focal point going forward for a Twins team already plagued by health question marks.
What do we know about it? Not much, other than that whatever the doctors from the Giants and Mets saw spooked them big-time. Correa's 2014 injury, and the plate insertion to address it, were no secret going in. Still, something popped up on closer inspection that wound up costing Correa some $150 in guaranteed money over the course of a month.
I'm not going to pretend to have any expertise on this matter. But I will make an observation. While it's true that Correa has never missed time or received treatment for the old injury as a big-leaguer, that's not to say it hasn't affected his play.
With the benefit of hindsight, we can point to some evidence that Correa has potentially been acutely aware of his ankle being a risk point.
Thinking back now, I'm struck by an article Phil Miller wrote for the Star Tribune last April detailing how Correa -- despite his solid speed -- had attempted zero steals in the previous two seasons, and seven in the past five, due to concerns over getting hurt.
"It's a decision I had to make. Every time you steal a base, there's a greater risk of injury, right? The tag can take you out, hitting the base, you can twist your ankle, break your hands," Correa said at the time. "It's higher risk for little reward. I realized that I'm more valuable offensively and defensively than I am trying to steal bags."
Sure enough, when Correa did attempt one single steal during 2022 season, in mid-September, he jarred his ankle. The shortstop looked visibly scared as he quickly collapsed on the ground and grabbed for his leg. He later admitted as much, telling reporters, "He just hit my plate. … Just kind of felt numb, vibrating. So I was just waiting for it to calm down. It was a little scary, but when I moved I knew I was good."
The ankle was not an issue thereafter. Correa missed no time and played out the remaining two weeks without incident. And yet, given what we now know, the moment foreshadowed a tumultuous offseason ahead for Correa. Did he stir up or exacerbate the injury in some way? Was this simply an early sign of the underlying issues coming into play as San Francisco and New York fear? We don't know.
The upshot here, theoretically, is that Correa has been managing and mitigating the problem for years. Seemingly there is no reason he can't continue to do so at least for the next few. We're talking about a supremely intelligent and dedicated athlete who knows how to take care of himself.
With that said, the Mets couldn't sell themselves on C4 despite knowing about all of these qualities and being highly motivated buyers. It seems likely he would've chosen New York if they could've surpassed Minnesota's offer even on the six-year term, but the Mets wouldn't do it.
The Twins, already fraught with as much pivotal injury risk as any team in baseball, are now taking one of the most publicized high-risk gambles in the history of free agency. They said from the start they were serious in their desire to bring back Correa and now they've proven it resoundingly by outbidding a skeptical field for a player now labeled as damaged goods.
We'll see if more details and information come out in the coming days about the specifics of Correa's ankle, and why the Twins were ultimately much more willing to live with the risk.
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