Can I Interest You in a Four-Man Rotation?

With the increased volatility of a shortened season a four-man rotation could potentially strengthen a team by allowing its best starters to pitch more often. The decreased workload caused by fewer games would theoretically allow pitchers to pitch on less rest while still throwing fewer pitches than they would in a typical season. Russel A. Carleton studied the effect of rest on starting pitchers for Baseball Prospectus back in 2012 and found that the amount of rest between starts doesn’t decrease a starter’s effectiveness (though high pitch counts in previous starts do).

Certainly interesting, but considering the current depth of Twins pitching along with the abundance of doubleheaders likely to come with any version of a 2020 season, a six-man rotation might be more realistic. However, Wolfe did a rough study of which teams would most benefit from a four-man rotation and lo and behold, our Minnesota Twins make an appearance.

He simply used FanGraphs projected rotations for each team, cut out the fifth starter, and increased the remaining WAR of the rotation by 25%. Obviously with doubleheaders teams would still need swingmen, but it’s just meant to give us a rough picture of which teams would most benefit. Here’s the results:

I was initially surprised to see Minnesota amongst the teams listed, but a closer look at our projected rotation brings at least some clarity. FanGraphs projects the top-five starters to be Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, and Jhoulys Chacín. Cutting Chacín from the rotation definitely makes it better. One could certainly quibble for Randy Dobnak as the fifth starter (I would!), and maybe he would mitigate some of the drop off that comes with Chacín, but I think the main takeaway is more of Berrios, Odorizzi, and Maeda would be a good thing.

Of course, Rich Hill and Michael Pineda further complicate matters. Depending on when the season starts (if ever), Hill could potentially be ready to go from the start. Talentwise, he knocks Bailey from the rotation, but pitching an oft-injured Hill on shortened rest might be a tough sell. Alternately, he would make a lot of sense as a swingman (especially considering the doubleheaders), where his innings could be limited and he could join the rotation for a potential postseason run.

If Pineda’s suspension is not reduced he will miss a significant chunk of the season (39 games to be exact). He could potentially be eased into the rotation via a bullpen/swingman role, or injury or ineffectiveness could rear its ugly head and clear a spot for Pineda.

Minnesota could also keep things fluid switching from a four-to-five man rotation and mixing in swingmen as needed. With expanded rosters come expanded opportunities and the Twins would be wise to keep all options open. Using only four starters would give the added benefit of multitudes of relievers that could be called upon at any time (whereas starters are unavailable on their rest days). Avoiding injury is imperative so treading with caution is well warranted, but if less overall innings allows Minnesota the opportunity to pitch their best pitchers more often, it’s certainly worthy of consideration.

What do you think? Is a four-man rotation something the Twins should consider or just a dumb idea that helped bring this article into fruition? Can you think of any other outside-the-box maneuvers that could be implemented in a shortened/altered season?

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