Buck Can Bankroll His Future in Final Month

In the final days of July, Buxton was a hotly-discussed name related to potential trade rumors. Minnesota had made him multiple long-term extension offers, and the suggestion was that it was either accept or be moved down the line. Buxton’s camp wisely passed on what would seem below-market deals, but there have been few rumblings of further conversation since.

I am a staunch believer that the Twins should be paying Byron Buxton. The only reason a player of his caliber is even remotely in their wheelhouse from an expense perspective in the first place is because of his injury history. Whatever valuation is placed on him will account for the reality that he’s been unavailable for significant portions of a season. Once the other 29 teams can bid on his services, or he puts up a 2022 season free of injury, the opportunity to retain him is now out the window.

That’s why this next month could be so imperative for Buxton and the Twins.

Having now been surpassed by Jorge Polanco due to his recent tear, Buxton was Minnesota’s fWAR leader (2.7) for most of the year despite playing in just 27 games this season. He was on pace to remain in the MVP discussion despite otherworldly seasons being had by the Angels Shohei Ohtani and the Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Assuming he returns on Friday night when the Twins host Milwaukee, he’ll have 36 games of runway left to go.

There was a time that Buxton’s bugaboo was not only injury but effectiveness. We’ve long since overcome that hurdle, given Buxton’s .903 OPS over the past three seasons. Combined with the fact that he’s arguably the best defensive centerfielder in baseball, it’s impossible to overstate his overall impact on the diamond. Even if Buxton returns and plays at a slightly muted level, the likelihood that he remains All-Star caliber or better the rest of the way is a good bet.

For Buxton and the Twins, 36 games is a crucial bargaining piece. Knowing his extension would be highly incentive-laden, it would serve the centerfielder well to be completely available until the book closes on this year. Should production stay in the realm of where it was, he may be able to use that as an “I told you so” effort to bump Minnesota’s offer. If the Twins see another injury derail the final stretch, it could be a feather in their cap to suggest the risk they’re taking on is immense.

No matter how the last few games play out, I think this offseason is one of a critical juncture. Allowing Buxton to play out his final season without an extension would be a mistake. Minnesota needs to decide whether they’re going to commit to the uber-talented home-grown talent or move him for a package that helps to supplement the future. Either way, both sides will have one last hoorah in 2021 to point to when they reconvene at the negotiating table.

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