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The Minnesota Twins drafted Byron Buxton 2nd overall in the 2012 Major League Baseball draft. One-time teammate Carlos Correa was the only man that went ahead of him. It took until 2015 for Buxton to make his Major League debut, and it wasn’t until 2017 that we saw a glimpse of what was to come.
Now fully appreciated as a top player in the game, the caveat has always been “when healthy.” Buxton has suffered a series of maladies over the course of his career, and that was the only reason Minnesota found themselves in an advantageous position. With free agency looming and a desire to avoid that by finding common ground through an extension, only the Twins were able to negotiate a deal with their star.
Make no mistake, Byron Buxton was going to get paid if he had hit the open market, the question was how much and who would the Twins be competing with. Minnesota has never swam in a pool with the sharks, and outside of Correa falling into their laps last winter, the big spenders have always far surpassed their offers. If any large market team wanted Buxton, it would’ve been incredibly hard for the Twins to keep him.
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine came up with a creative offer that would pay Buxton $100 million over the next seven years regardless. They then included incentives that allowed the superstar to bet on himself. In doing so, Buxton has a yearly opportunity to capitalize on his performance if he can remain on the field. Year one wound up being virtually equal value, even with the missed time, but it remains to be seen how it will go from here.
On the flip side, Steve Cohen’s deep pockets for the New York Mets just gave us some insight into what the frenzy may have looked like on the open market.
Talented outfielder Brandon Nimmo just agreed to an eight-year deal worth $162 million. He’s a year older than Buxton was at the time of his contract signing, and he’s experienced a similar level of injury concerns. The problem for the Mets is that they had to deal with other suitors, and although Nimmo isn’t the player Buxton is by any means, fighting over his services drove the price up.
Across seven major-league seasons, Nimmo has played all of them with the New York team that drafted him 13th overall from high school. In those seven seasons, he’s played more than 70 games just three times, and has surpassed 100 games only twice. In his corner was that 2022, just prior to signing a new deal with the Mets, he played a career high 151 games.
Not only is Nimmo’s $20.25 million annually higher than Buxton’s $14.29 million, but he also had the contract stretched a year longer despite being older. We have seen Major League teams spend a boatload over the course of the Winter Meetings, and despite setting records a season ago, it seems they’ll be crushed again this time around.
Injury is something teams certainly are hoping to avoid, but there’s a level of risk being taken on in every long-term deal. Health or otherwise, every player ages, and baseball is set up to stifle earnings while athletes may be at their best. Being paid for previous performance is part of the structure, and it’s the projection systems you’re hoping to hone in and have future performance outweigh eventual decline.
Maybe the Twins would have ultimately always been home for Buxton, or maybe he would have taken less money on the open market to stay where he’s been comfortable. What is certain, however, is that $100 million Buxton signed for is well below where the payday would have been had he gone to free agency.
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