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  • By the Numbers: Which Twins Hitters have the Most Value


    RealTwinsFan357

    Let's face it, there isn't much left to talk about in terms of the Twins and their 2014 season. We know the story all too well at this point. Worst starting pitcher ERA in all of baseball, last place in the AL Central, can never seem to get a hit with runners on base, etc. This tired story has caused me, like many of you, to care way more about the future than the present. In this post, I am attempting to answer a simple question: Which players look OK to stick with in 2015 and which players could use a replacement, or at least some competition?

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    I went on Fangraphs and looked at all the Twins hitters who have compiled 100 or more PA this year. This amounts to 18 players, four of whom are not with the Twins in any capacity and one of whom is currently in the minor leagues. I looked at wOBA, wRC+, and WAR, since I think those three stats do the best job of describing a player's total value. Since WAR is not a rate stat, I calculated what each player's WAR would be in 500 plate appearances. This probably isn't the best measurement, but it will serve my purpose.

    I have ranked the players based on wOBA, since I feel this statistic is the best description of a player's value. I have included each player's wOBA, wRC+, and WAR/500PA in parentheses. I've also supplied their ages, when they are eligible for arbitration, if applicable, and when they are eligible for free agency, per Baseball-Reference.

    • Danny Santana (.364/134/3.1) Age: 23 (2017/2020)
    • Kennys Vargas (.356/128/2.0) Age: 24 (2017/2020)
    • Jordan Schafer (.354/127/6.2) Age: 28 (Current/2017)
    • Brian Dozier (.342/119/3.5) Age: 27 (2016/2019)
    • Josmil Pinto (.341/118/1.2) Age: 25 (2017/2020)
    • Josh Willingham (.328/109/1.4) Age: 35( FA 2015)
    • Trevor Plouffe (.328/108/3.0) Age: 28 (Current/2018)
    • Sam Fuld (.327/108/3.9) Age: 32 (Current/2017)
    • Kurt Suzuki (.327/108/2.0) Age: 30 (FA 2017)
    • Joe Mauer (.321/104/1.6) Age: 31 (FA 2019)
    • Oswaldo Arcia (.317/101/1.0) Age: 23 (2017/2020)
    • Eduardo Escobar (.315/100/2.4) Age: 25 (2015/2019)
    • Chris Parmelee (.304/92/-0.2) Age: 26 (2016/2019)
    • Eduardo Nunez (.304/92/1.6) Age: 27 (2015/2018)
    • Chris Colabello (.293/84/-2.3) Age: 30 (2017/2020)
    • Aaron Hicks (.288/81/-0.6) Age: 24 (2017/2020)
    • Jason Kubel (.278/-1.1/-3.1) Age: 33 (No Contract)
    • Kendrys Morales (.255/58/-0.8) Age: 31 (FA 2015)

    Well, I can say I'm happy we got rid of Kubel and Morales. Also I think Colabello may not be seen in a Twins uniform again. I feel sorry for him because I wanted him to become an incredible player, but baseball is a business. I'm going to break down,by position, the players still on the Twins roster to make for easy analysis.

    Outfielders:

    Is Schafer going to be a 6 WAR player? I seriously doubt it. But at 28, he isn't really that old and I think he has shown that he can be better than he was in Atlanta. I respect anybody who says that Schafer should be nothing more than a 4th OF, but by the numbers, he's been our best outfielder this year. So even if there is regression, he has to be legitimately discussed as a starting option.

    I hope Arcia figures it out, but it's been frustrating to watch him this year. Every time he seems to figure something out I feel like he regresses right away. I think if Arcia can't figure out how to hit more consistently he's going to be in major trouble. It is excusable to play a poor defender in right field, but only if they can out-hit their defensive woes, and I just haven't seen enough of that from Arcia.

    I think Hicks deserves another chance, but I think he's on thin ice. I'm actually much more sold on Schafer than Hicks right now, and Schafer is only 4 years older. Especially with Buxton in the minors, I think Hicks needs to perform very well next year if he ever wants to make an impact for the Twins.

    I think it's time to give up on Parmelee. I always wanted him to succeed, but I just don't see anything to indicate he will outplay his current numbers.

    Infielders:

    A note for Twins management: I'm considering Santana and Nunez as infielders regardless of what your lineups and rosters say. Until somebody invents a stat for expected regression rate, Danny Santana is the man. He is exactly the type of player who should hit on top of the Twins lineup (or any lineup for that matter). Put him at short, where his defensive rating will increase even if they are still slightly below average, and we could be looking at a darn good player here.

    Of course, if Danny Santana is our shortstop, what does that mean for Escobar? I have been a huge Escobar fan all year and think he has done nothing to justify the loss of his job, but as the title indicates, I'm going by the numbers. Offensively, Escobar has been average. Now, for a shortstop, average is good, especially when 2.4 WAR would be generated in 500 PA, but Santana is simply better.

    Unfortunately, so is Plouffe and so is Dozier. I think Escobar is too good to be a bench player, but the Twins infield, weirdly enough, is actually very solid right now. Maybe this means he's trade bait. I can definitely see why Gardy plays Santana in the outfield, whether I agree or not. In terms of WAR/500 PA, there are three infielders better than Santana and only one outfielder.

    Nunez has actually turned out to be a pretty good bench player.

    C/1B/DH:

    Like Danny Santana, many people don't trust Vargas so sustain his numbers, but a .356 wOBA would look pretty dang good at the middle of any lineup.

    As we all would have thought, Pinto is a much better choice in terms of offense than Suzuki, but because of his defensive problems, he still rates lower in terms of WAR. He also doesn't have the bat to boot Vargas out of his spot. I like Pinto as a backup catcher, and he can DH on days Mauer has off, so I do think he can contribute to next year's Twins. He's been our 6th best hitter this year; he needs to be in the lineup.

    Mauer, I hope, can only get better.

    I have no problem with giving Arcia another shot, and I think Schafer has earned some playing time as well. Hicks should be in the mix, but it depends on how September goes. With Schafer and Hicks able to play center, it is not necessary that a FA signing be a center fielder, but I think that FA would need to be capable of solid defense at the corner spots. Other than that there really isn't much need for offense.

    I would be content if the Twins broke camp with these 13.

    Outfield: Schafer, Hicks, Arcia, Free Agent Signing

    Infield: Santana, Dozier, Plouffe, Escobar, Nunez

    C/1B/DH: Suzuki, Pinto, Mauer, Vargas

    Let me know your thoughts and thanks for reading!

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    Actually, your thoughts for a 13 player position player roster is just about exactly how my mind plays it out.

     

    I keep coming up with a 14 man roster list because I keep including Parmelee in my head. I may be stubborn, or just foolish, but I just keep seeing "just enough" from him at times when he's given a shot, that I want to include him as a possible.

     

    I think people sleep in regard to Nunez. As a nice, versatile player with a solid bat and equipped with some power and position flexibility, I like him. I'd like the Twins to work him more next ST in the OF. Not as an option, but as a fill in.

     

    Escobar has done NOTHING to lose his spot as a starter, except being born with less overall talent than someone like Santana. Santana offers even more offense, and even more range and "potential" as a defensive player. And I know the "P" word can be a nasty one, and I don't want to take anything away from what Escobar has done and meant to this team...but...I think he might be better used as an almost everyday player, similar to Nunez.

     

    I have been advocating for some time for a quality FA LF, 1 year stopgap or 2-3 year player is to be debated. Not sold on Schafer yet. I want to be. I want to see if how he plays CF, though Santana could also fill in, and KNOW he won't hit long term like he has thus far with the Twins. But I am intrigued by what I see and love him on the base paths.

     

    Pinto. Suzuki. Here is where the Twins actually have to get smart. Can they do that? I'm not being snarky! But barring some unforeseen injury factor, there is not going to be a great deal of opportunity for AB's in the DH spot. I was, and am, in favor of signing Suzuki. But you would have to be misguided, stubborn, or stupid to not make room for a player with the potential of Pinto. Offense isn't everything, of course, but the kid has worked hard, and continues to work hard, to better himself, and has a strong arm. You simply can't ignore his potential for the sake of the "safe" and experienced veteran player.

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    Really enjoyed the read.

     

    Yeah, I'm not sold on Schaffer either. As a 4th OF, I'm fine with him. He was once top talent, so if he's figured something out, yay Twins, but I highly doubt that. I think he's earned that 4th OF role, but my main concern is Gardy's love for players like him. He will stick with him for far too long. I'm guessing the pitchers love him though, as he's the only above average defensive OF we are carrying.

     

    As for SS, the Santana/Escobar thing is going to be interesting this offseason. I'm not sure what value Escobar has in the trade market, I'd imagine that there are enough questions that GMs are going to want to see a repeat performance before they give up something of value for him. But SS is also one of those positions where teams are desperate to find good talent, so who knows. If the Twins could get an above average LF (both offensively and defensively) that is currently blocked, I'd probably pull the trigger. The question at hand is whether or not you can find a way to keep both Santana and Escobar in the lineup while maintaining their value.

     

    Santana, from what I understand, is still pretty raw defensively, and while he's been a pleasant surprise, he really needed to be working more games at SS. He's got a lot of the same issues Jose Reyes had when he came up (not saying he will pan out the same way). He's got superior range and gets to far more than most SS, but he rushes sometimes and ends up making costly errors. He needs to be playing SS. I could Santana spending a bit of time in AAA next season to work on defense. That's not to say that he deserves it, but I could see the Twins attempting to maximize Escobar in 2015. If Escobar regresses as some think he will, you call up Santana and make Escobar the utility guy. If he doesn't, he gets traded either at the deadline or in the offseason.

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    Good article. I was not a Schafer fan, but he has started to intrigue me. I also think Hicks just looks different this time, calmer and his PA's are more solid looking. I have always been a big fan of Oswaldo. Still he drives me nuts. Lately some of his hardest hit balls have been at someone, it happens. He looks like he is trying to work the count. He is not a work the count guy. He needs to hit the first fastball he sees that is a strike. As he matures he can look at the finer aspects of hitting. As for the OF he is rough, going to his left is not that bad, but his backhand is not good. But something tells me he is gonna.be really good. He is 23, and I bet there are a ton of teams that would take him tomorrow. Suzuki? Always was and still is an average catcher. Great Gardy guy also. We were handed a gift. We signed him as a third choice, he got unreal hot, and then two teams needed a catcher. So we did what any losing team would do, we extended him two years. Pinto is also rough, and the pitchers claim not to enjoy throwing to him. (Then they should throw better than they have to Kurt). Santanna should finish the year at short. If he can play he can, if he can't he will end up as either a super utility guy, or Dozier's replacement. Other teams have great athletes at short, we don't seem to. The summary: the lineup the Twins started the season with, and mostly still embrace is on the way to -90 again. The players on the field are average. I know it's sacrilegious but I include Dozier, and Mauer as a first baseman. There is nothing to be lost by trying other replacements. What can happen? We could lose 96 I suppose! Yet they treat some of these guys as All Stars. For this team spring training started on the 11th game after the ASG. Lastly, why does it make a difference who we start against contenders. We have shown a consistent ability to lose with the norm, and it's time for us to evaluate our players. Showing Gardy's "respect for the game" should include putting a decent team on the field in 2015!

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    1 hundred percent agree.

    RF-Arcia (If doesn't improve and Hicks emerges possibly moved to bench or platoon)

    CF-Aaron Hicks (til Buxton)

    LF- Free Agent (possibly Traded at deadline or moved if Hicks finally emerges)

    C- Kurt Suzuki

    1B- Joe Mauer

    2B- Brian Dozier

    SS- Danny Santana

    3B- Trevor Plouffe (Until Sano moves him to bench or trade at deadline)

    DH- Kenys Vargas

    Bench

    OF- Jordan Schafer (Until regression or pushed aside by emerging prospects)

    C- Pinto (Until he shows he can handle major league pitchers or is pushed aside by prospects)

    IF- Eduardo Escobar

    IF- Nunez (Until Plouffe is moved to bench by Sano)

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    Agree with Platoon on Hicks;  he looks pretty solid in the 6 games he's gotten the starting nod here lately.

     

    7-for-19, 2 BB, 6 RBI's in 6 starts

     

    There's still a lot of talent there, I think he puts it together enough to be on the 25-man roster for a while, just not sure what position yet.

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    The 25-man roster...eh, 13 bats...is pretty set with the above. I could see the Twins signing a Cuddyer-like guy, but that pushes Hicks to CF or e start with Schafer or have musical chairs like this year, finally settling on Santana. If Santana is the shortstop, I can live with Escobar and Nunez on the bench. Vargas is DH and back-up at first. I see Pinto starting at Rochester so the Twins need a catcher. A bat or a throwout guy. 

     

    The Twins could replace Plouffe and get a better bat. The Plouffe becomes the reserve guy. Arcia could tank. Sophomore slump on Vargas and Santana (remember Pinto and Parmelee in September?)

     

    I would love to see the Twins sign a $20-million dollar starter and go from there. Bullpen possibilities are an overabundance. They could bring back Burton for a decent contract (nooooo, you all cry) and overpay Duensing and Swarzak. With the payroll as it is, and the lowend of the payroll as it is, the Twins could easily spend $32 million on a slugger and a 1st starter and still come in under $100 million and remain that way for 2016 and probably 2017.

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    I enjoyed the analysis. The only move I would not be in favor of is signing a left fielder with the idea of trading him later. Schafer has earned a chance at a regular spot.  Not sure he will keep it.  Hicks does look different. Looks like the game is slowing down for him. I am not sure if Arcia will ever figure it out but he is still young. If Sano comes up Plouffe may be looking for playing time. Try him at a corner spot. Maybe,maybe maybe Buxton stays healthy and comes up.

     

    If Twins were a contender I would agree that they sorely need a proven corner outfielder. But next year I would still develope.

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    I think Hicks deserves another chance, but I think he's on thin ice. I'm actually much more sold on Schafer than Hicks right now, and Schafer is only 4 years older. Especially with Buxton in the minors, I think Hicks needs to perform very well next year if he ever wants to make an impact for the Twins.

     

     

    Great article, minor nitpick here->  Shafer just turned 28 this last week.  Hicks turns 25 on October 2.  

     

    Whatever the case, given how shorthanded in CF the Twins left themselves going into April last year, a 3-pronged CF approach seems likely to continue for the time being.  Santana splits time in CF and SS, it also seems likely that Schafer has played well enough to earn a 25-man spot and split time in CF, and part time in the corners, starting out initially in April, 2015.  And given Hicks' reticence about playing winter ball, he hasn't exactly ingratiated himself with management, even with a better approach at the plate in September.  He has an option left, I can easily see him starting out next season in Rochester.

     

    The other possibility that few have seriously considered beyond a FA acquisition for a corner spot?   Either Mauer or Plouffe->  Vargas getting more 1st base reps, Arcia getting more DH reps.

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    I really enjoyed your analysis! A couple thoughts that come to mind...

     

     

    Schafer. My excitement for him is roughly equivalent to what I feel when fans get excited that we put someone on base due to the opposing team's error. I know he has earned his playing time as of late, but my gut reaction is much more ambivalent. Indifferent. Unimpressed.

     

     

    Santana. I'll say it time and time again... let the kid play his position!! Let him be full-time SS until/unless he proves otherwise that he can't handle it, at which time try splitting time in the outfield. He can't prove his worth at short without playing there.

     

     

    Escobar. I like him a lot, but can't give him the job just because I like him (and his smile hahhaha). I wouldn't consider a trade until we were sold with Santana as our everyday SS, and even if then I'd much rather keep him SOMEWHERE. With Florimon gone, someone needs to hold the Best Smile in the Clubhouse title.

     

     

    Annnnnnnnd Mauer. Did anyone have the same reaction as I did with a 'He's not a free agent UNTIL 2019!?!?' :|

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    I really enjoyed your analysis! A couple thoughts that come to mind...

     

     

    Schafer. My excitement for him is roughly equivalent to what I feel when fans get excited that we put someone on base due to the opposing team's error. I know he has earned his playing time as of late, but my gut reaction is much more ambivalent. Indifferent. Unimpressed.

     

     

    Santana. I'll say it time and time again... let the kid play his position!! Let him be full-time SS until/unless he proves otherwise that he can't handle it, at which time try splitting time in the outfield. He can't prove his worth at short without playing there.

     

     

    Escobar. I like him a lot, but can't give him the job just because I like him (and his smile hahhaha). I wouldn't consider a trade until we were sold with Santana as our everyday SS, and even if then I'd much rather keep him SOMEWHERE. With Florimon gone, someone needs to hold the Best Smile in the Clubhouse title.

     

     

    Annnnnnnnd Mauer. Did anyone have the same reaction as I did with a 'He's not a free agent UNTIL 2019!?!?' :|

    Ashbury, RB, and I were talking about this a few weeks ago... but I think Escobar's value gets hurt quite a bit if he moves into a utility role. Do you put Santana in AAA and see how he does there, or do you try to figure out a way to ensure Escobar is playing 3 out of every 4 games? I don't think he's going to net a ton in a trade this offseason. I do think that at worst Santana will be the equivalent to what we've had a SS the last few seasons, and at best this season isn't a fluke... Just curious.

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    Nice analysis. It's a good illustration of why I think the Twins should be patient with the FA market this offseason - what they've already got is pretty decent. The key to 2010 was scooping up Thome and Hudson on cheap, 1-year deals 3 weeks before spring training. The Orioles followed that formula this winter with Nelson Cruz. That's how the Twins should try to improve the roster for 2015 while making sure they don't block any of the goodies that are on their way up through the farm system.

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    Thank you for the calculations.  Converting them to .500 AB makes it easier to compare them.

    The numbers confirm what we have seen from Santana.  However our eyes have told us that Santana is not as good a SS as E Escobar. 

    Schafer has not been here a month.  I'd like to see what the numbers say when the season is over.

    Pinto confirmed in AAA that he is a hitter and he should get regular AB in 2015. 

    These numbers show us that Mauer could easily sit more so that Vargas can play 1B and Pinto can DH.

    Although Arcia's numbers do not look so great, the Angels intentionally walked him twice.  Numbers don't tell us everything.  :)

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    Ashbury, RB, and I were talking about this a few weeks ago... but I think Escobar's value gets hurt quite a bit if he moves into a utility role. Do you put Santana in AAA and see how he does there, or do you try to figure out a way to ensure Escobar is playing 3 out of every 4 games? I don't think he's going to net a ton in a trade this offseason. I do think that at worst Santana will be the equivalent to what we've had a SS the last few seasons, and at best this season isn't a fluke... Just curious.

     

    There is no way that Santana starts out in AAA to start the 2015 season.  The only question is how much time he spends at SS and CF with the Twins.

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    These numbers show us that Mauer could easily sit more so that Vargas can play 1B and Pinto can DH.

     

     Numbers don't tell us everything.  :)

     

    Assuming Mauer plays almost all of the games remaining in 2014, he will have averaged 115 games per season over the last four years.  How many more games should we ask Mauer to "easily sit" @ this number which tells us alot: $23M/yr?

     

    I would argue that there is another solution, in that, Arcia could DH more, Mauer could play more OF, Vargas could play more 1B and Pinto could catch more.

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    There is no way that Santana starts out in AAA to start the 2015 season.  The only question is how much time he spends at SS and CF with the Twins.

     

    Maybe Vargas could start in AAA to give Parmelee some more run too.

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    There is a lot of talk about Santanna the fielder, but not much about Santanna the lead off guy. This teams offensive problems often stem from hitting with RISP. Needless to say things get even worse without RISP! That said, Santanna is currently the only player we have that has consistent and considerable success in the one hole. Making him a utility player or sending him to Rochester is not good. The problem with the Super Utility role is exacerbated by the possibility that the current management stays in place.

     

    What about Joe? Watching him play this year I came to several conclusions. (Opinions). To wit: I like Mauer. I think he is a phenomenal athlete, and I could care less how much Jim Pohlad pays him. I think the amount of abuse he takes is disgusting. But he does seem a man out of place. On the Twins he is the 3 hitter. But he is not a 3 type hitter, and on a team with better talent he would not be in that position. (I played short on a softball team, and even I did not think I was a SS). With the change in ball parks, and the emphasis on playing down the LF line, his limited power is limited! (I wonder what he would do in Fenway)? Anyway I was watching him the other day and I thought: he is a lead off style hitter without lead off style speed. He has large frame, but not much power. He was a great catcher, in a first basemans frame, and he has a right fielders arm, playing first base. These are not criticisms, they are observations.

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